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Volatile safe-haven asset: Evidence from Bitcoin

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  • Yae, James
  • Tian, George Zhe

Abstract

Despite high volatility, Bitcoin is known to offer diversification benefits through its relatively low correlation with stock markets. Unlike traditional safe-haven assets, Bitcoin prices strongly respond to time-varying correlations and diversification benefits. We find that a decrease (an increase) in correlation between Bitcoin and S&P500 index returns strongly predicts higher (lower) Bitcoin returns the next day. Under the classical mean–variance framework, we develop a stylized model of Bitcoin prices utilizing extreme disagreement among heterogeneous Bitcoin investors. When our model is calibrated to the observed predictability of Bitcoin returns, the model simultaneously explains the lack of predictability in traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and long-term treasuries.

Suggested Citation

  • Yae, James & Tian, George Zhe, 2024. "Volatile safe-haven asset: Evidence from Bitcoin," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:73:y:2024:i:c:s1572308924000706
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2024.101285
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Safe-haven asset; Bitcoin; Time-varying correlation; Return predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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