IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v23y2017icp223-232.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Diversification opportunities between emerging and frontier Asian (EFA) and developed stock markets

Author

Listed:
  • Narayan, Seema
  • Ur Rehman, Mobeen

Abstract

We show a stable long-run relationship between three developed and ten emerging frontier Asian (EFA) equity markets over the period 2000 to 2013 using daily, weekly, and monthly data. Across the three frequencies, DJIA returns are good predictors of EFA markets but the predictive power of Nikkei225 and S&P 500 differ. Further, during the GFC, the DJIA and Nikkei225 (not S&P 500) are influential. Non-GFC periods see all three important but S&P 500 was more persistent. We also reveal that the developed markets may be more important than other emerging market predictors, such as exchange rates and oil price shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Narayan, Seema & Ur Rehman, Mobeen, 2017. "Diversification opportunities between emerging and frontier Asian (EFA) and developed stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 223-232.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:23:y:2017:i:c:p:223-232
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2017.06.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612317301113
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2017.06.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Su-Fang & Zhu, Hui-Ming & Yu, Keming, 2012. "Oil prices and stock market in China: A sector analysis using panel cointegration with multiple breaks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1951-1958.
    2. Marcel Aloy & Mohamed Boutahar & Karine Gente & Anne P駵in-Feissolle, 2013. "Long-run relationships between international stock prices: further evidence from fractional cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(7), pages 817-828, March.
    3. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    4. Phillips, Peter C B, 1995. "Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(5), pages 1023-1078, September.
    5. Gupta, Rakesh & Guidi, Francesco, 2012. "Cointegration relationship and time varying co-movements among Indian and Asian developed stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 10-22.
    6. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    7. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2002. "Measuring financial and economic integration with equity prices in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 879-903, November.
    8. Narayan, S. & Sriananthakumar, S. & Islam, S.Z., 2014. "Stock market integration of emerging Asian economies: Patterns and causes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 19-31.
    9. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2010. "Modelling the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 356-361, January.
    10. Didier, Tatiana & Love, Inessa & Peria, Maria Soledad Martinez, 2010. "What explains stock markets'vulnerability to the 2007-2008 crisis ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5224, The World Bank.
    11. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    12. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    13. Masih, Rumi & Peters, Sanjay & De Mello, Lurion, 2011. "Oil price volatility and stock price fluctuations in an emerging market: Evidence from South Korea," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 975-986, September.
    14. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    15. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Dooley, Michael & Hutchison, Michael, 2009. "Transmission of the U.S. subprime crisis to emerging markets: Evidence on the decoupling-recoupling hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1331-1349, December.
    17. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Bodnar, Gordon M., 2012. "Crossing the lines: The conditional relation between exchange rate exposure and stock returns in emerging and developed markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 766-792.
    18. Zhang, Bing & Li, Xiao-Ming, 2014. "Has there been any change in the comovement between the Chinese and US stock markets?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 525-536.
    19. Huang, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin-Wei & Hu, John Wei-Shan, 2000. "Causality and cointegration of stock markets among the United States, Japan and the South China Growth Triangle," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 281-297.
    20. Paramita Mukherjee & Suchismita Bose, 2008. "Does the Stock Market in India Move with Asia?: A Multivariate Cointegration-Vector Autoregression Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(5), pages 5-22, September.
    21. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    22. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Ghosh, Sajal & Kanjilal, Kakali, 2016. "Co-movement of international crude oil price and Indian stock market: Evidences from nonlinear cointegration tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 111-117.
    24. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    25. Seema Narayan, 2015. "Are Asian Stock Market Returns Predictable?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(5), pages 867-878, September.
    26. Ghosh, Asim & Saidi, Reza & Johnson, Keith H, 1999. "Who Moves the Asia-Pacific Stock Markets--US or Japan? Empirical Evidence Based on the Theory of Cointegration," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 159-170, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Erick Treviño Aguilar, 2020. "The interdependency structure in the Mexican stock exchange: A network approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(10), pages 1-31, October.
    2. Erick Trevi~no Aguilar, 2020. "The interdependency structure in the Mexican stock exchange: A network approach," Papers 2004.06676, arXiv.org.
    3. Mobeen Ur Rehman, 2020. "Dynamic correlation pattern amongst alternative energy market for diversification opportunities," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, December.
    4. Ahmad, Nasir & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Does inter-region portfolio diversification pay more than the international diversification?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 26-35.
    5. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Ahmad, Nasir & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Dependence dynamics of stock markets during COVID-19," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PB).
    6. Rehman, Mobeen Ur, 2019. "Energy shocks pricing model: A non-linear US sectoral based analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    7. Narayan, Seema & Rehman, Mobeen Ur, 2021. "Can home-biased investors diversify interregionally in the long run?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 167-181.
    8. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis H., 2018. "Extreme dependence and risk spillovers between oil and Islamic stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 42-63.
    9. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Ahmad, Nasir & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Asymmetric multifractal behaviour and network connectedness between socially responsible stocks and international oil before and during COVID-19," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 587(C).
    10. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Hernandez, Jose Areola & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Zakaria, Muhammad, 2018. "A global network topology of stock markets: Transmitters and receivers of spillover effects," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 492(C), pages 2136-2153.
    11. Seema Narayan, 2019. "The Influence of Domestic and Foreign Shocks on Portfolio Diversification Gains and the Associated Risks," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-26, October.
    12. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Do alternative energy markets provide optimal alternative investment opportunities?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    13. Seema Wati Narayan & Mobeen Ur Rehman & Yi-Shuai Ren & Chaoqun Ma, 2023. "Is a correlation-based investment strategy beneficial for long-term international portfolio investors?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-26, December.
    14. Narayan, Seema & Ur Rehman, Mobeen, 2020. "International portfolio strategies and opportunities: The case of the US, Japan and Asia," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    15. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Apergis, Nicholas, 2019. "Determining the predictive power between cryptocurrencies and real time commodity futures: Evidence from quantile causality tests," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 603-616.
    16. Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Frequency dependence between oil futures and international stock markets and the role of gold, bonds, and uncertainty indices: Evidence from partial and multivariate wavelet approaches," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    17. Seema Wati Narayan, 2020. "Asian Current Account Balances And Spillovers From A Foreign Country, A Region And The United States," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 23(1), pages 1-24, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahmad, Nasir & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Does inter-region portfolio diversification pay more than the international diversification?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 26-35.
    2. Narayan, Seema & Ur Rehman, Mobeen, 2020. "International portfolio strategies and opportunities: The case of the US, Japan and Asia," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    3. Narayan, Seema & Rehman, Mobeen Ur, 2021. "Can home-biased investors diversify interregionally in the long run?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 167-181.
    4. Seema Wati Narayan & Mobeen Ur Rehman & Yi-Shuai Ren & Chaoqun Ma, 2023. "Is a correlation-based investment strategy beneficial for long-term international portfolio investors?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-26, December.
    5. Juan Carlos Aquino & N. R. Ramírez-Rondán, 2020. "Estimating factor shares from nonstationary panel data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2353-2380, May.
    6. Helmi Hamdi & Ali Said & Rashid Sbia, 2015. "Empirical Evidence on the Long-Run Money Demand Function in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 603-612.
    7. Chebli Mongi & Kais Saidi, 2024. "The Impact of Corruption, Government Effectiveness, FDI, and GFC on Economic Growth: New Evidence from Global Panel of 48 Middle-Income Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(3), pages 10696-10721, September.
    8. Carlos Alberto Barreto Nieto & Jacobo Campo Robledo, 2012. "Relación a largo plazo entre consumo de energía y PIB en América Latina: Una evaluación empírica con datos panel," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, October.
    9. Cecilio R. Tamarit Escalona & Estrella Gómez, 2011. "The euro effect on trade: evidence in gravity equations using panel cointegration techniques," Working Papers. Serie EC 2011-07, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    10. Aysel Amir & Korhan Gökmenoğlu, 2023. "Analyzing the Drivers of the Shadow Economy for the Case of the CESEE Region," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 71(2), pages 155-181, February.
    11. El-Shazly, Alaa, 2013. "Electricity demand analysis and forecasting: A panel cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 251-258.
    12. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, 2011. "Econometrics For Grumblers: A New Look At The Literature On Cross‐Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 109-155, February.
    13. Skare, Marinko & Ozturk, Ilhan & Porada-Rochoń, Małgorzata & Stjepanovic, Sasa, 2024. "Energy as the new frontier: Dynamic panel data analysis revealing energy's transformative role in economic growth and technological progress," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    14. Luisanna Onnis & Patrizio Tirelli, 2010. "Challenging the popular wisdom. New estimates of the unobserved economy," Working Papers 184, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2010.
    15. Martin Wagner & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2004. "What's Really the Story with this Balassa-Samuelson Effect in the CEECs?," Diskussionsschriften dp0416, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    16. Jaehyeok Kim & Hyungwoo Lim & Ha-Hyun Jo, 2020. "Do Aging and Low Fertility Reduce Carbon Emissions in Korea? Evidence from IPAT Augmented EKC Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-15, April.
    17. Tarik Dogru & Umit Bulut & Ercan Sirakaya-Turk, 2021. "Modeling tourism demand: Theoretical and empirical considerations for future research," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 874-889, June.
    18. Duc Hong Vo & Anh The Vo, 2017. "Currency evaluation using a big mac index for Thailand – lessons for Vietnam," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 999-1011.
    19. Mongi Chebli & Kais Saidi, 2024. "Economic Growth in Middle-Income Countries: The Role of Political Stability and Foreign Direct Investment," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 22(3), pages 641-665, September.
    20. Xuejiao Ma & Qichuan Jiang, 2019. "How to Balance the Trade-off between Economic Development and Climate Change?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-30, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging and frontier markets; Equity returns; VECM; Co movements; Asia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:23:y:2017:i:c:p:223-232. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.