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The value premium, aggregate risk innovations, and average stock returns

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  • Lindaas, Knut F.
  • Simlai, Prodosh

Abstract

We test whether innovations in aggregate risk, interpolated from a vector autoregressive system that contains the Chen et al. (1986) five factors as in Petkova (2006), are common factors in cross-sectional stock returns. We provide direct evidence that innovation in industrial production growth, a classical business-cycle variable that summarizes the state of the economy, is associated with the cross-sectional return predictability of individual stocks. We conclude that the role of innovation in aggregate risk is not random, and furthermore that it provides guidance concerning an important source of nonfinancial market-based risk in asset returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Lindaas, Knut F. & Simlai, Prodosh, 2014. "The value premium, aggregate risk innovations, and average stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 303-317.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:11:y:2014:i:3:p:303-317
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2014.06.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Li-Yu & Lai, Jung-Ho & Chang, Shao-Chi, 2017. "The long-term performance of new product introductions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 162-169.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Firm size; Book-to-market; Risk innovations; Industrial production growth; Investment opportunity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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