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Structured factor copulas for modeling the systemic risk of European and United States banks

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  • Nguyen, Hoang
  • Virbickaitė, Audronė
  • Ausín, M. Concepción
  • Galeano, Pedro

Abstract

In this paper, we employ Credit Default Swaps (CDS) to model the joint and conditional distress probabilities of banks in Europe and the U.S. using factor copulas. We propose multi-factor, structured factor, and factor-vine models where the banks in the sample are clustered according to their geographic location. We find that within each region, the co-dependence between banks is best described using both, systematic and idiosyncratic, financial contagion channels. However, if we consider the banking system as a whole, then the systematic contagion channel prevails, meaning that the distress probabilities are driven by a latent global factor and region-specific factors. In all cases, the co-dependence structure of bank CDS spreads is highly correlated in the tail. The out-of-sample forecasts of several measures of systemic risk allow us to identify the periods of distress in the banking sector over the recent years including the COVID-19 pandemic, the interest rate hikes in 2022, and the banking crisis in 2023.

Suggested Citation

  • Nguyen, Hoang & Virbickaitė, Audronė & Ausín, M. Concepción & Galeano, Pedro, 2024. "Structured factor copulas for modeling the systemic risk of European and United States banks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:96:y:2024:i:pa:s1057521924005532
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103621
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    1. Mario Cerrato & John Crosby & Minjoo Kim & Yang Zhao, 2017. "The joint credit risk of UK global‐systemically important banks," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(10), pages 964-988, October.
    2. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2013. "The pricing of sovereign risk and contagion during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 60-82.
    3. Kleinow, Jacob & Moreira, Fernando, 2016. "Systemic risk among European banks: A copula approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 27-42.
    4. Krupskii, Pavel & Joe, Harry, 2020. "Flexible copula models with dynamic dependence and application to financial data," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 148-167.
    5. Rutger-Jan Lange & Andre Lucas & Arjen H. Siegmann, 2016. "Score-Driven Systemic Risk Signaling for European Sovereign Bond Yields and CDS Spreads," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-064/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank risk; Contagion; Credit default swaps; Crisis; Default; Distress; Factor vine copulas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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