IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v93y2024ics1057521924001479.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Reflections of public perception of Russia-Ukraine conflict and Metaverse on the financial outlook of Metaverse coins: Fresh evidence from Reddit sentiment analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Ghosh, Indranil
  • Alfaro-Cortés, Esteban
  • Gámez, Matías
  • García-Rubio, Noelia

Abstract

The present work endeavors to thoroughly examine the dependence of daily closing prices of Metaverse coins on external social media sentiment on Russia's military invasion of Ukraine and the potential benefits of Metaverse technology. We collate the worldwide media chatter on the Ukraine war and uncover the dynamic association with four Metaverse coins by applying wavelet coherence analysis. Subsequently, we systematically estimate the sentiment of discussions on the Reddit community on two topics, namely, the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Metaverse, to gauge their impact separately on the chosen tokens. Nonlinear association mining and forecasting exercises are carried out to comprehend the predictability of the Metaverse financial assets using the respective sentiment components. The predictive framework utilizes Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)-tuned Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBR) for feature transformation and fetching forecasts, respectively. Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) methods are utilized to interpret the prediction process for unveiling the feature contributions. The findings suggest that the dependence between the Metaverse coins and media chatter on the Russia-Ukraine war primarily prevails in short and medium-run scales, and the Reddit sentiments on the same and Metaverse can be effectively leveraged for estimating future figures and trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghosh, Indranil & Alfaro-Cortés, Esteban & Gámez, Matías & García-Rubio, Noelia, 2024. "Reflections of public perception of Russia-Ukraine conflict and Metaverse on the financial outlook of Metaverse coins: Fresh evidence from Reddit sentiment analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:93:y:2024:i:c:s1057521924001479
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103215
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521924001479
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103215?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boungou, Whelsy & Yatié, Alhonita, 2022. "The impact of the Ukraine–Russia war on world stock market returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    2. Sapkota, Niranjan, 2022. "News-based sentiment and bitcoin volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Isakin, Maksim & Pu, Xiaoling, 2023. "Dispersion in news sentiment and corporate bond returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Gric, Zuzana & Bajzík, Josef & Badura, Ondřej, 2023. "Does sentiment affect stock returns? A meta-analysis across survey-based measures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    5. Park, Hyejune & Lim, Rachel Esther, 2023. "Fashion and the metaverse: Clarifying the domain and establishing a research agenda," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    6. Costola, Michele & Hinz, Oliver & Nofer, Michael & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2023. "Machine learning sentiment analysis, COVID-19 news and stock market reactions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    7. Gunay, Samet & Goodell, John W. & Muhammed, Shahnawaz & Kirimhan, Destan, 2023. "Frequency connectedness between FinTech, NFT and DeFi: Considering linkages to investor sentiment," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    8. Kraus, Sascha & Kumar, Satish & Lim, Weng Marc & Kaur, Jaspreet & Sharma, Anuj & Schiavone, Francesco, 2023. "From moon landing to metaverse: Tracing the evolution of Technological Forecasting and Social Change," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    9. Yousaf, Imran & Youssef, Manel & Goodell, John W., 2022. "Quantile connectedness between sentiment and financial markets: Evidence from the S&P 500 twitter sentiment index," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    10. Marinč, Matej & Massoud, Nadia & Ichev, Riste & Valentinčič, Aljoša, 2021. "Presidential candidates linguistic tone: The impact on the financial markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    11. Chowdhury, Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous & Abdullah, Mohammad & Alam, Masud & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Shi, Baofeng, 2023. "NFTs, DeFi, and other assets efficiency and volatility dynamics: An asymmetric multifractality analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    12. Sestino, Andrea & D'Angelo, Alfredo, 2023. "My doctor is an avatar! The effect of anthropomorphism and emotional receptivity on individuals' intention to use digital-based healthcare services," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    13. Yoo, Kiwoong & Welden, Roman & Hewett, Kelly & Haenlein, Michael, 2023. "The merchants of meta: A research agenda to understand the future of retailing in the metaverse," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 173-192.
    14. Guo, Shijun & Jiao, Yang & Xu, Zhiwei, 2021. "Trump’s Effect on the Chinese Stock Market," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    15. Ghosh, Indranil & Chaudhuri, Tamal Datta & Alfaro-Cortés, Esteban & Gámez, Matías & García, Noelia, 2022. "A hybrid approach to forecasting futures prices with simultaneous consideration of optimality in ensemble feature selection and advanced artificial intelligence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    16. Ante, Lennart, 2023. "How Elon Musk's Twitter activity moves cryptocurrency markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PA).
    17. Jung, Sang Hoon & Jeong, Yong Jin, 2021. "Examining stock markets and societal mood using Internet memes," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    18. Aysan, Ahmet Faruk & Batten, Jonathan A. & Gozgor, Giray & Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Nanaeva, Zhamal, 2023. "Twitter matters for metaverse stocks amid economic uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    19. Wang, Yizhi, 2022. "Volatility spillovers across NFTs news attention and financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    20. Karkowska, Renata & Urjasz, Szczepan, 2023. "How does the Russian-Ukrainian war change connectedness and hedging opportunities? Comparison between dirty and clean energy markets versus global stock indices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    21. Bai, Yunxia & Zhang, Bofu & Xue, Liuyang, 2023. "DSGE on the metaverse," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    22. Telli, Şahin & Chen, Hongzhuan, 2021. "Multifractal behavior relationship between crypto markets and Wikipedia-Reddit online platforms," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    23. Buigut, Steven & Kapar, Burcu, 2020. "Effect of Qatar diplomatic and economic isolation on GCC stock markets: An event study approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    24. Ghosh, Indranil & Alfaro-Cortés, Esteban & Gámez, Matías & García-Rubio, Noelia, 2023. "Prediction and interpretation of daily NFT and DeFi prices dynamics: Inspection through ensemble machine learning & XAI," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    25. Vidal-Tomás, David, 2023. "The illusion of the metaverse and meta-economy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    26. Bejaoui, Azza & Frikha, Wajdi & Jeribi, Ahmed & Bariviera, Aurelio F., 2023. "Connectedness between emerging stock markets, gold, cryptocurrencies, DeFi and NFT: Some new evidence from wavelet analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 619(C).
    27. Yu, Haixu & Liang, Chuanyu & Liu, Zhaohua & Wang, He, 2023. "News-based ESG sentiment and stock price crash risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    28. Klaus, Jürgen & Koser, Christoph, 2021. "Measuring Trump: The Volfefe Index and its impact on European financial markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    29. R. K. Jana & Indranil Ghosh & Debojyoti Das, 2021. "A differential evolution-based regression framework for forecasting Bitcoin price," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 306(1), pages 295-320, November.
    30. Felix Reichenbach & Martin Walther, 2023. "Financial recommendations on Reddit, stock returns and cumulative prospect theory," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 421-448, June.
    31. Dias, Ishanka K. & Fernando, J.M. Ruwani & Fernando, P. Narada D., 2022. "Does investor sentiment predict bitcoin return and volatility? A quantile regression approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    32. Nishimura, Yusaku & Sun, Bianxia, 2021. "President’s Tweets, US-China economic conflict and stock market Volatility: Evidence from China and G5 countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    33. Kumari, Vineeta & Kumar, Gaurav & Pandey, Dharen Kumar, 2023. "Are the European Union stock markets vulnerable to the Russia–Ukraine war?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    34. Kim, Doha & Song, Yeosol & Kim, Songyie & Lee, Sewang & Wu, Yanqin & Shin, Jungwoo & Lee, Daeho, 2023. "How should the results of artificial intelligence be explained to users? - Research on consumer preferences in user-centered explainable artificial intelligence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    35. Goodell, John W. & Kumar, Satish & Rao, Purnima & Verma, Shubhangi, 2023. "Emotions and stock market anomalies: A systematic review," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    36. Tee, Chwee-Ming & Wong, Wai-Yan & Hooy, Chee-Wooi, 2023. "Financial sanctions and global stock market reaction: Evidence from the Russia-Ukraine conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    37. Zhang, Xiaotao & Li, Guoran & Li, Yishuo & Zou, Gaofeng & Wu, Ji George, 2023. "Which is more important in stock market forecasting: Attention or sentiment?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    38. Horky, Florian & Dubbick, Lili & Rhein, Franziska & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2023. "Don't miss out on NFTs?! A sentiment-based analysis of the early NFT market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 799-814.
    39. Yousaf, Imran & Jareño, Francisco & Martínez-Serna, María-Isabel, 2023. "Extreme spillovers between insurance tokens and insurance stocks: Evidence from the quantile connectedness approach," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    40. BenMabrouk, Houda & Sassi, Syrine & Soltane, Feriel & Abid, Ilyes, 2024. "Connectedness and portfolio hedging between NFTs segments, American stocks and cryptocurrencies Nexus," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Proelss, Juliane & Sévigny, Stéphane & Schweizer, Denis, 2023. "GameFi: The perfect symbiosis of blockchain, tokens, DeFi, and NFTs?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    2. Xie, Qichang & Fang, Tingwei & Rong, Xueyun & Xu, Xin, 2024. "Nonlinear behavior of tail risk resonance and early warning: Insight from global energy stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    3. Aharon, David Y. & Alon, Ilan & Vakhromov, Oleg, 2024. "Metaverse tokens or metaverse stocks – Who’s the boss?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    4. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Abdullah, Mohammad & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Wali Ullah, G M, 2024. "Asymmetric dynamics between geopolitical conflict sentiment and cryptomarkets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    5. Ghosh, Indranil & Alfaro-Cortés, Esteban & Gámez, Matías & García-Rubio, Noelia, 2023. "Prediction and interpretation of daily NFT and DeFi prices dynamics: Inspection through ensemble machine learning & XAI," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    6. Simone Boccaletti & Paolo Maranzano & Caterina Morelli & Elisa Ossola, 2024. "ESG Performance and Stock Market Responses to Geopolitical Turmoil: evidence from the Russia-Ukraine War," Working Papers 544, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    7. Wang, Lu & Guan, Li & Ding, Qian & Zhang, Hongwei, 2023. "Asymmetric impact of COVID-19 news on the connectedness of the green energy, dirty energy, and non-ferrous metal markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    8. Chakraborty, Debarun & Polisetty, Aruna & Rana, Nripendra P., 2024. "Consumers' continuance intention towards metaverse-based virtual stores: A multi-study perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    9. Moser, Stefanie & Brauneis, Alexander, 2023. "Should you listen to crypto YouTubers?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    10. Zhang, Xu & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Du, Yuting & Rauf, Abdul, 2024. "Examining the bidirectional ripple effects in the NFT markets: Risky center or hedging center?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    11. Okorie, David Iheke & Bouri, Elie & Mazur, Mieszko, 2024. "NFTs versus conventional cryptocurrencies: A comparative analysis of market efficiency around COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 126-151.
    12. Chishti, Muhammad Zubair & Khalid, Ali Awais & Sana, Moniba, 2023. "Conflict vs sustainability of global energy, agricultural and metal markets: A lesson from Ukraine-Russia war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    13. Mkedder, Nadjim & Das, Manish, 2024. "Metaverse integration challenges: An in-depth ISM and MICMAC analysis," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    14. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Wali Ullah, G M & Abdullah, Mohammad & Lee, Chi-Chuan & Sulong, Zunaidah, 2024. "Correlation structure between fiat currencies and blockchain assets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PA).
    15. Lei, Heng & Xue, Minggao & Ye, Jing, 2024. "The nexus between ReFi, carbon, fossil energy, and clean energy assets: Quantile time–frequency connectedness and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    16. Goodell, John W. & Ben Jabeur, Sami & Saâdaoui, Foued & Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2023. "Explainable artificial intelligence modeling to forecast bitcoin prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    17. Furdui Călin & Șfabu Dorina Teodora, 2023. "The European Banks Under the Shock of the Russian Invasion of 2022: An Event Study Approach," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 68(1), pages 62-77, April.
    18. Agrrawal, Pankaj & Agarwal, Rajat, 2023. "A Longer-Term evaluation of Information releases by Influential market Agents and the Semi-strong market Efficiency," EconStor Preprints 273555, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    19. Ahmed, Shamima & Assaf, Rima & Rahman, Molla Ramizur & Tabassum, Fariha, 2023. "Is geopolitical risk interconnected? Evidence from Russian-Ukraine crisis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    20. Kamal, Md Rajib & Ahmed, Shaker & Hasan, Mostafa Monzur, 2023. "The impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on the stock market: Evidence from Australia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Metaverse; Reddit; Sentiment; Russia-Ukraine conflict; Explainable artificial intelligence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:93:y:2024:i:c:s1057521924001479. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.