Estimating stochastic discount factor models with hidden regimes: Applications to commodity pricing
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2017.07.045
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.
Other versions of this item:
- Marta Giampietro & Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2017. "Estimating Stochastic Discount Factor Models with Hidden Regimes: Applications to Commodity Pricing," Working Papers 614, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
References listed on IDEAS
- Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1997.
"Assessing Specification Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 557-590, June.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1994. "Assessing specification errors in stochastic discount factor models," Staff Report 167, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan, 1994. "Assessing Specification Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jagannathan, Ravi & Wang, Zhenyu, 1996.
"The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 3-53, March.
- Ravi Jagannathan & Zhenyu Wang, 1996. "The conditional CAPM and the cross-section of expected returns," Staff Report 208, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Büyükşahin, Bahattin & Robe, Michel A., 2014. "Speculators, commodities and cross-market linkages," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 38-70.
- Lombardi, Marco J. & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016.
"On the correlation between commodity and equity returns: Implications for portfolio allocation,"
Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 45-57.
- Marco Jacopo Lombardi, 2013. "On the correlation between commodity and equity returns: implications for portfolio allocation," BIS Working Papers 420, Bank for International Settlements.
- Scott R. Baker & Nick Bloom & Steven J. Davis & John Van Reenen, 2012.
"Economic Recovery and Policy Uncertainty,"
CEP US Election Analysis Papers
002, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Baker, Scott R. & Davis, Steven J. & Bloom, Nick & Van Reenen, John, 2012. "Economic recovery and policy uncertainty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 57970, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Frans A. De Roon & Theo E. Nijman & Chris Veld, 2000.
"Hedging Pressure Effects in Futures Markets,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1437-1456, June.
- de Roon, F.A. & Nijman, T.E. & Veld, C.H., 2000. "Hedging pressure effects in futures markets," Other publications TiSEM 3dfe2c9f-3194-4751-9b34-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Xiaohong Chen & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2009.
"Land of addicts? an empirical investigation of habit‐based asset pricing models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1057-1093, November.
- Xiaohong Chen & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2009. "Land of addicts? an empirical investigation of habit-based asset pricing models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1057-1093.
- Sydney Ludvigson & Xiaohong Chen, 2004. "Land of Addicts? An Empirical Investigation of Habit-Based Asset Pricing Models," 2004 Meeting Papers 692, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Yang, Fan, 2013. "Investment shocks and the commodity basis spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 164-184.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2006.
"An econometric model of nonlinear dynamics in the joint distribution of stock and bond returns,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 1-22, January.
- Allan Timmermann & Massimo Guidolin, 2006. "An econometric model of nonlinear dynamics in the joint distribution of stock and bond returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 1-22.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "An econometric model of nonlinear dynamics in the joint distribution of stock and bond returns," Working Papers 2005-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003.
"Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
- Luboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, "undated". "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," CRSP working papers 531, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2001. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 8462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stambaugh, Robert F. & Pástor, Luboš, 2002. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 3494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Buckley, Ian & Saunders, David & Seco, Luis, 2008. "Portfolio optimization when asset returns have the Gaussian mixture distribution," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(3), pages 1434-1461, March.
- Massimo Guidolin, 2011. "Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance," Working Papers 415, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Daskalaki, Charoula & Skiadopoulos, George, 2011. "Should investors include commodities in their portfolios after all? New evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2606-2626, October.
- Bae, Geum Il & Kim, Woo Chang & Mulvey, John M., 2014. "Dynamic asset allocation for varied financial markets under regime switching framework," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 450-458.
- Daskalaki, Charoula & Kostakis, Alexandros & Skiadopoulos, George, 2014. "Are there common factors in individual commodity futures returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 346-363.
- Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2009.
"Macro Factors in Bond Risk Premia,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5027-5067, December.
- Sydeny C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2005. "Macro Factors in Bond Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 11703, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
- Massimo Guidolin, 2011.
"Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance,"
Advances in Econometrics, in: Missing Data Methods: Time-Series Methods and Applications, pages 1-86,
Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
- Massimo Guidolin, 2011. "Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance," Working Papers 415, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Suleyman Basak & Anna Pavlova, 2013.
"Asset Prices and Institutional Investors,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1728-1758, August.
- Basak, Suleyman & Pavlova, Anna, 2012. "Asset Prices and Institutional Investors," CEPR Discussion Papers 9120, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alizadeh, Amir H. & Nomikos, Nikos K. & Pouliasis, Panos K., 2008. "A Markov regime switching approach for hedging energy commodities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1970-1983, September.
- Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2012.
"Has Economic Policy Uncertainty Hampered the Recovery?,"
Book Chapters, in: Lee E. Ohanian & John B. Taylor & Ian J. Wright (ed.), Government Policies and the Delayed Economic Recovery, chapter 3,
Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
- Scott Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2012. "Has Economic Policy Uncertainty Hampered the Recovery?," Working Papers 2012-003, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
- Clifford S. Asness & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2013. "Value and Momentum Everywhere," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 929-985, June.
- Hsiang-Tai Lee & Jonathan Yoder, 2007.
"A bivariate Markov regime switching GARCH approach to estimate time varying minimum variance hedge ratios,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(10), pages 1253-1265.
- Hsiang-Tai Lee & Jonathan Yoder, 2005. "A Bivariate Markov Regime Switching GARCH Approach to Estimate Time Varying Minimum Variance Hedge Ratios," Econometrics 0506009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2012.
"Has Economic Policy Uncertainty Hampered the Recovery?,"
Book Chapters, in: Lee E. Ohanian & John B. Taylor & Ian J. Wright (ed.), Government Policies and the Delayed Economic Recovery, chapter 3,
Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
- Baker, Scott & Bloom, Nicholas & Davis, Steven J., 2012. "Has Economic Policy Uncertainty Hampered the Recovery?," Working Papers 242, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
- Marta Szymanowska & Frans Roon & Theo Nijman & Rob Goorbergh, 2014. "An Anatomy of Commodity Futures Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(1), pages 453-482, February.
- Dias, José G. & Vermunt, Jeroen K. & Ramos, Sofia, 2015. "Clustering financial time series: New insights from an extended hidden Markov model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(3), pages 852-864.
- Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
- Marroquı´n-Martı´nez, Naroa & Moreno, Manuel, 2013. "Optimizing bounds on security prices in incomplete markets. Does stochastic volatility specification matter?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 225(3), pages 429-442.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Wu, Chongfeng, 2020. "Forecasting commodity prices out-of-sample: Can technical indicators help?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 666-683.
- Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2021. "Forecasting commodity futures returns with stepwise regressions: Do commodity-specific factors help?," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 1317-1356, April.
- Nguyen, Quynh Nga & Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien & Zhang, Lyuyuan & Zhu, Bangzhu, 2020. "Local Gaussian correlations in financial and commodity markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(1), pages 306-323.
- Shirui Wang & Tianyang Zhang, 2024. "Predictability of commodity futures returns with machine learning models," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 302-322, February.
- Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2020. "Distilling Large Information Sets to Forecast Commodity Returns: Automatic Variable Selection or HiddenMarkov Models?," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 20140, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
- Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2018. "Forecasting Commodity Futures Returns: An Economic Value Analysis of Macroeconomic vs. Specific Factors," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1886, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
- Schücking, Maximilian & Jochem, Patrick, 2021. "Two-stage stochastic program optimizing the cost of electric vehicles in commercial fleets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
- Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2022. "Switching Coefficients or Automatic Variable Selection: An Application in Forecasting Commodity Returns," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-32, February.
- P. Zhukov E. & П. Жуков Е., 2019. "Новые модели анализа изменений стоимости компании, основанные на стохастических ставках дисконтирования // New Models for Analyzing Changes in Company Value Based on Stochastic Discount Rates," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 23(3), pages 35-48.
- Schücking, Maximilian & Jochem, Patrick, 2020. "Two-stage stochastic program optimizing the total cost of ownership of electric vehicles in commercial fleets," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 50, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).
- Liu, Chunbo & Zhang, Xuan & Zhou, Zhiping, 2023. "Are commodity futures a hedge against inflation? A Markov-switching approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Marta Giampietro & Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2015. "Can No-Arbitrage SDF Models with Regime Shifts Explain the Correlations Between Commodity, Stock, and Bond Returns?," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1619, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
- Gurdip Bakshi & Xiaohui Gao & Alberto G. Rossi, 2019. "Understanding the Sources of Risk Underlying the Cross Section of Commodity Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(2), pages 619-641, February.
- Shang, Hua & Yuan, Ping & Huang, Lin, 2016. "Macroeconomic factors and the cross-section of commodity futures returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 316-332.
- Ahmed, Shamim & Tsvetanov, Daniel, 2016. "The predictive performance of commodity futures risk factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 20-36.
- Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2013.
"Advances in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing: Empirical Tests,"
Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 799-906,
Elsevier.
- Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2011. "Advances in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing: Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 16810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sakkas, Athanasios & Tessaromatis, Nikolaos, 2020. "Factor based commodity investing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
- Aleksejs Krecetovs & Pasquale Della Corte, 2016. "Macro uncertainty and currency premia," 2016 Meeting Papers 624, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Bianchi, Robert J. & Drew, Michael E. & Fan, John Hua, 2016. "Commodities momentum: A behavioral perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 133-150.
- Stefan Nagel, 2013.
"Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing,"
Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 167-199, November.
- Stefan Nagel, 2012. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 18554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nagel, Stefan, 2012. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 9227, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Miffre, Joëlle, 2016. "Long-short commodity investing: A review of the literature," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-13.
- Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje & Vrugt, Evert B., 2018.
"Carry,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 197-225.
- Moskowitz, Tobias J & Pedersen, Lasse Heje & Koijen, Ralph & Vrugt, Evert B., 2013. "Carry," CEPR Discussion Papers 9771, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ralph S.J. Koijen & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Evert B. Vrugt, 2013. "Carry," NBER Working Papers 19325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nikolay Gospodinov & Ibrahim Jamali, 2018. "Monetary policy uncertainty, positions of traders and changes in commodity futures prices," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(2), pages 239-260, March.
- Zhang, Xiang & Liu, Yangyi & Wu, Kun & Maillet, Bertrand, 2021.
"Tradable or nontradable factors—what does the Hansen–Jagannathan distance tell us?,"
International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 853-879.
- Xiang Zhang & Yangyi Liu & Kun Wu & Bertrand Maillet, 2021. "Tradable or nontradable factors : what does the Hansen–Jagannathan distance tell us?," Post-Print hal-03287946, HAL.
- Daskalaki, Charoula & Skiadopoulos, George & Topaloglou, Nikolas, 2017.
"Diversification benefits of commodities: A stochastic dominance efficiency approach,"
Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 250-269.
- Charoula Daskalaki & George Skiadopoulos & Nikolas Topaloglou, 2016. "Diversification Benefits of Commodities: A Stochastic Dominance Efficiency Approach," Working Papers 797, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Colacito, Riccardo & Riddiough, Steven J. & Sarno, Lucio, 2020.
"Business cycles and currency returns,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(3), pages 659-678.
- Riccardo Colacito & Steven J. Riddiough & Lucio Sarno, 2019. "Business Cycles and Currency Returns," NBER Working Papers 26299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sarno, Lucio & Colacito, Ric & Riddiough, Steven, 2019. "Business Cycles and Currency Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 14015, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Loïc Maréchal, 2023. "A tale of two premiums revisited," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 580-614, May.
- Li, Hemei & Liu, Zhenya & Zhao, Yuqian, 2023. "The Fortune and crash of common risk factors in Chinese commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
- Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
- Daskalaki, Charoula & Kostakis, Alexandros & Skiadopoulos, George, 2014. "Are there common factors in individual commodity futures returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 346-363.
- Zhang, Xuan & Xiao, Jun & Zhang, Zhekai, 2020. "An anatomy of commodity futures returns in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
More about this item
Keywords
Finance; Commodities; Stochastic discount factor; Hidden Markov model;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:265:y:2018:i:2:p:685-702. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.