IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v35y2010i10p4178-4183.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Statistically adjusted engineering (SAE) modeling of metered roof-top photovoltaic (PV) output: California evidence

Author

Listed:
  • DeBenedictis, A.
  • Hoff, T.E.
  • Price, S.
  • Woo, C.K.

Abstract

Accurate hourly photovoltaic (PV) output data are useful for engineering design, cost-effectiveness evaluation, rate design, system operation, transmission planning, risk management, and policy analysis. However, a large sample of hourly metered PV data is seldom available, and engineering simulation is often the only practical means to obtain hourly PV output. Based on an analysis of net energy metering (NEM) funded by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), this paper presents statistically adjusted engineering (SAE) modeling of metered output of 327 roof-top PV installations in California for the 12-month period of January–December 2008. The key findings are: (a) the metered PV output is on an average 80–90% of simulated performance; and (b) the simulated data have useful information for accurately predicting metered PV performance. Plausible causes for (a) include incomplete input data for PV simulation, occasional failures in metered data recording, and less than ideal conditions for PV performance in the real world.

Suggested Citation

  • DeBenedictis, A. & Hoff, T.E. & Price, S. & Woo, C.K., 2010. "Statistically adjusted engineering (SAE) modeling of metered roof-top photovoltaic (PV) output: California evidence," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4178-4183.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:35:y:2010:i:10:p:4178-4183
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2010.06.041
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544210003646
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2010.06.041?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baskette, C. & Horii, B. & Kollman, E. & Price, S., 2006. "Avoided cost estimation and post-reform funding allocation for California's energy efficiency programs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1084-1099.
    2. Train, Kenneth & Herriges, Joseph & Windle, Robert, 1985. "Statistically adjusted engineering (SAE) models of end-use load curves," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 10(10), pages 1103-1111.
    3. Celik, A.N., 2003. "Long-term energy output estimation for photovoltaic energy systems using synthetic solar irradiation data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 479-493.
    4. Clastres, C. & Ha Pham, T.T. & Wurtz, F. & Bacha, S., 2010. "Ancillary services and optimal household energy management with photovoltaic production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 55-64.
    5. Pearce, J.M., 2009. "Expanding photovoltaic penetration with residential distributed generation from hybrid solar photovoltaic and combined heat and power systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1947-1954.
    6. Mount, Timothy D. & Ning, Yumei & Cai, Xiaobin, 2006. "Predicting price spikes in electricity markets using a regime-switching model with time-varying parameters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 62-80, January.
    7. Woo, Chi-Keung & Horowitz, Ira & Olson, Arne & Horii, Brian & Baskette, Carmen, 2006. "Efficient frontiers for electricity procurement by an LDC with multiple purchase options," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 70-80, January.
    8. Park, Haesun & Mjelde, James W. & Bessler, David A., 2006. "Price dynamics among U.S. electricity spot markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 81-101, January.
    9. Mahone, A. & Woo, C.K. & Williams, J. & Horowitz, I., 2009. "Renewable portfolio standards and cost-effective energy-efficiency investment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 774-777, March.
    10. Ai, B. & Yang, H. & Shen, H. & Liao, X., 2003. "Computer-aided design of PV/wind hybrid system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 1491-1512.
    11. Orans, R. & Price, S. & Williams, J. & Woo, C.K. & Moore, J., 2007. "A Northern California-British Columbia partnership for renewable energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 3979-3983, August.
    12. Mills, Andrew & Wiser, Ryan & Barbose, Galen & Golove, William, 2008. "The impact of retail rate structures on the economics of commercial photovoltaic systems in California," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3266-3277, September.
    13. Chang, Tian Pau, 2009. "Performance evaluation for solar collectors in Taiwan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 32-40.
    14. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1877-1900 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Olson, Arne & Orans, Ren & Allen, Doug & Moore, Jack & Woo, C.K., 2009. "Renewable Portfolio Standards, Greenhouse Gas Reduction, and Long-Line Transmission Investments in the WECC," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(9), pages 38-46, November.
    16. Manolakos, D & Papadakis, G & Papantonis, D & Kyritsis, S, 2001. "A simulation-optimisation programme for designing hybrid energy systems for supplying electricity and fresh water through desalination to remote areas," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 679-704.
    17. Deng, Shi-Jie & Xu, Li, 2009. "Mean-risk efficient portfolio analysis of demand response and supply resources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1523-1529.
    18. Denholm, Paul & Margolis, Robert M., 2007. "Evaluating the limits of solar photovoltaics (PV) in traditional electric power systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 2852-2861, May.
    19. Byrne, John & Letendre, Steven & Govindarajalu, Chandrasekhar & Wang, Young-Doo & Nigro, Ralph, 1996. "Evaluating the economics of photovoltaics in a demand-side management role," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 177-185, February.
    20. Train, Kenneth E., 1992. "An assessment of the accuracy of statistically adjusted engineering (SAE) models of end-use load curves," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 17(7), pages 713-723.
    21. Woo, C.K. & Kollman, E. & Orans, R. & Price, S. & Horii, B., 2008. "Now that California has AMI, what can the state do with it?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1366-1374, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lam, K.H. & Lai, T.M. & Lo, W.C. & To, W.M., 2012. "The application of dynamic modelling techniques to the grid-connected PV (photovoltaic) systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 264-274.
    2. Stainsby, Wendell & Zimmerle, Daniel & Duggan, Gerald P., 2020. "A method to estimate residential PV generation from net-metered load data and system install date," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J. & Moore, J. & Horowitz, I., 2011. "Wind generation and zonal-market price divergence: Evidence from Texas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 3928-3938, July.
    2. Woo, C.K. & Chen, Y. & Olson, A. & Moore, J. & Schlag, N. & Ong, A. & Ho, T., 2017. "Electricity price behavior and carbon trading: New evidence from California," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 531-543.
    3. Woo, C.K. & Moore, J. & Schneiderman, B. & Ho, T. & Olson, A. & Alagappan, L. & Chawla, K. & Toyama, N. & Zarnikau, J., 2016. "Merit-order effects of renewable energy and price divergence in California’s day-ahead and real-time electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 299-312.
    4. Woo, C.K. & Shiu, A. & Liu, Y. & Luo, X. & Zarnikau, J., 2018. "Consumption effects of an electricity decarbonization policy: Hong Kong," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 887-902.
    5. Woo, C.K. & Sreedharan, P. & Hargreaves, J. & Kahrl, F. & Wang, J. & Horowitz, I., 2014. "A review of electricity product differentiation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 262-272.
    6. Yushchenko, Alisa & Patel, Martin Kumar, 2017. "Cost-effectiveness of energy efficiency programs: How to better understand and improve from multiple stakeholder perspectives?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 538-550.
    7. Maatallah, Taher & El Alimi, Souheil & Nassrallah, Sassi Ben, 2011. "Performance modeling and investigation of fixed, single and dual-axis tracking photovoltaic panel in Monastir city, Tunisia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(8), pages 4053-4066.
    8. Chi-Keung Woo & Ira Horowitz & Jay Zarnikau & Jack Moore & Brendan Schneiderman & Tony Ho & Eric Leung, 2016. "What Moves the Ex Post Variable Profit of Natural-Gas-Fired Generation in California?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(3), pages 29-57, July.
    9. Zarnikau, J. & Woo, C.K. & Zhu, S. & Tsai, C.H., 2019. "Market price behavior of wholesale electricity products: Texas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 418-428.
    10. Lam, K.H. & Lai, T.M. & Lo, W.C. & To, W.M., 2012. "The application of dynamic modelling techniques to the grid-connected PV (photovoltaic) systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 264-274.
    11. Sreedharan, P. & Miller, D. & Price, S. & Woo, C.K., 2012. "Avoided cost estimation and cost-effectiveness of permanent load shifting in California," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 115-121.
    12. Moore, J. & Woo, C.K. & Horii, B. & Price, S. & Olson, A., 2010. "Estimating the option value of a non-firm electricity tariff," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1609-1614.
    13. Rehman, Shafiqur & El-Amin, Ibrahim, 2012. "Performance evaluation of an off-grid photovoltaic system in Saudi Arabia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 451-458.
    14. Ren, Zhengen & Grozev, George & Higgins, Andrew, 2016. "Modelling impact of PV battery systems on energy consumption and bill savings of Australian houses under alternative tariff structures," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 317-330.
    15. Brown, D.P. & Tsai, C.H. & Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J. & Zhu, S., 2020. "Residential electricity pricing in Texas's competitive retail market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    16. Dashti, Reza & Afsharnia, Saeed & Ghaderi, Farid, 2010. "AGA (Asset Governance Assessment) for analyzing affect of subsidy on MC (Marginal Cost) in electricity distribution sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 4996-5007.
    17. Woo, C.K. & Olson, A. & Chen, Y. & Moore, J. & Schlag, N. & Ong, A. & Ho, T., 2017. "Does California's CO2 price affect wholesale electricity prices in the Western U.S.A.?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 9-19.
    18. Bosco, Bruno & Parisio, Lucia & Pelagatti, Matteo & Baldi, Fabio, 2007. "A Robust Multivariate Long Run Analysis of European Electricity Prices," International Energy Markets Working Papers 7438, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    19. Deshmukh, M.K. & Deshmukh, S.S., 2008. "Modeling of hybrid renewable energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 235-249, January.
    20. Abdin, Z. & Webb, C.J. & Gray, E.MacA., 2015. "Solar hydrogen hybrid energy systems for off-grid electricity supply: A critical review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1791-1808.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:35:y:2010:i:10:p:4178-4183. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.