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Simulation models for the analysis of space heat consumption of buildings

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  • Popescu, Daniela
  • Ungureanu, Florina
  • Hernández-Guerrero, Abel

Abstract

This study develops and analyzes an original methodology for the simulation and prediction of space heating energy consumption in buildings connected to a district heating system, characterized by lack of individual control systems for end-users. The identification of the input parameters is based on both classical engineering equations and statistical analysis of collected data. Two main factors play important roles in the model: (i) climate and (ii) human behavior. Model validation was undertaken through the analysis of field data collected during the winter, via a monitoring system working in a partially-controlled district heating system. The comparison between the results obtained with the proposed model versus classical methods points out the possibility to implement, using the proposed methodology, management policies for a district that offer significant cost-effective energy savings opportunities.

Suggested Citation

  • Popescu, Daniela & Ungureanu, Florina & Hernández-Guerrero, Abel, 2009. "Simulation models for the analysis of space heat consumption of buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1447-1453.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:34:y:2009:i:10:p:1447-1453
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2009.05.035
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrea Menapace & Simone Santopietro & Rudy Gargano & Maurizio Righetti, 2021. "Stochastic Generation of District Heat Load," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-17, August.
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    4. Keçebaş, Ali & Alkan, Mehmet Ali & Yabanova, İsmail & Yumurtacı, Mehmet, 2013. "Energetic and economic evaluations of geothermal district heating systems by using ANN," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 558-567.
    5. Difs, Kristina & Bennstam, Marcus & Trygg, Louise & Nordenstam, Lena, 2010. "Energy conservation measures in buildings heated by district heating – A local energy system perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 3194-3203.
    6. Verda, Vittorio & Colella, Francesco, 2011. "Primary energy savings through thermal storage in district heating networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 4278-4286.
    7. Ascione, Fabrizio & Bianco, Nicola & De Stasio, Claudio & Mauro, Gerardo Maria & Vanoli, Giuseppe Peter, 2017. "Artificial neural networks to predict energy performance and retrofit scenarios for any member of a building category: A novel approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 999-1017.
    8. Sun, Chunhua & Chen, Jiali & Cao, Shanshan & Gao, Xiaoyu & Xia, Guoqiang & Qi, Chengying & Wu, Xiangdong, 2021. "A dynamic control strategy of district heating substations based on online prediction and indoor temperature feedback," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    9. Edwards, Richard E. & New, Joshua & Parker, Lynne E. & Cui, Borui & Dong, Jin, 2017. "Constructing large scale surrogate models from big data and artificial intelligence," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 685-699.
    10. Tian, Wei & Song, Jitian & Li, Zhanyong & de Wilde, Pieter, 2014. "Bootstrap techniques for sensitivity analysis and model selection in building thermal performance analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 320-328.
    11. Manfren, Massimiliano & Caputo, Paola & Costa, Gaia, 2011. "Paradigm shift in urban energy systems through distributed generation: Methods and models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(4), pages 1032-1048, April.
    12. F. Marta L. Di Lascio & Andrea Menapace & Maurizio Righetti, 2020. "Joint and conditional dependence modelling of peak district heating demand and outdoor temperature: a copula-based approach," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 29(2), pages 373-395, June.
    13. Niu, Shu-wen & Li, Yi-xin & Ding, Yong-xia & Qin, Jing, 2010. "Energy demand for rural household heating to suitable levels in the Loess Hilly Region, Gansu Province, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 2070-2078.
    14. Hansen, Kenneth & Connolly, David & Lund, Henrik & Drysdale, David & Thellufsen, Jakob Zinck, 2016. "Heat Roadmap Europe: Identifying the balance between saving heat and supplying heat," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P3), pages 1663-1671.
    15. Lund, Henrik & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Connolly, David & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2017. "Smart energy and smart energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 556-565.
    16. Gouveia, João Pedro & Fortes, Patrícia & Seixas, Júlia, 2012. "Projections of energy services demand for residential buildings: Insights from a bottom-up methodology," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 430-442.

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