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Forecast of oil price and consumption in the short term under three scenarios: Parabolic, linear and chaotic behaviour

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  • Gori, F.
  • Ludovisi, D.
  • Cerritelli, P.F.

Abstract

The paper examines the evolution of price and consumption of oil in the last decades to construct a relationship between them. Then the work considers three possible scenarios of oil price: parabolic, linear and chaotic behaviour, to predict the evolution of price and consumption of oil up to December 2003.

Suggested Citation

  • Gori, F. & Ludovisi, D. & Cerritelli, P.F., 2007. "Forecast of oil price and consumption in the short term under three scenarios: Parabolic, linear and chaotic behaviour," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1291-1296.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:32:y:2007:i:7:p:1291-1296
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2006.07.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Greene, Myron T. & Fielitz, Bruce D., 1977. "Long-term dependence in common stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 339-349, May.
    2. Myron T. Greene & Bruce D. Fielitz, 1979. "The Effect of Long Term Dependence on Risk-Return Models of Common Stocks," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 27(5), pages 944-951, October.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Alessandro Corsini & Eileen Tortora, 2018. "Sea-Water Desalination for Load Levelling of Gen-Sets in Small Off-Grid Islands," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-18, August.
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    5. Wang, Minggang & Hua, Chenyu & Zhu, Mengrui & Xie, Shangshan & Xu, Hua & Vilela, André L.M. & Tian, Lixin, 2022. "Interrelation measurement based on the multi-layer limited penetrable horizontal visibility graph," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
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    7. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
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    11. Tapia, Carlos & Coulton, Jeff & Saydam, Serkan, 2020. "Using entropy to assess dynamic behaviour of long-term copper price," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    12. Karasu, Seçkin & Altan, Aytaç, 2022. "Crude oil time series prediction model based on LSTM network with chaotic Henry gas solubility optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    13. Abdollahi, Hooman & Ebrahimi, Seyed Babak, 2020. "A new hybrid model for forecasting Brent crude oil price," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    14. Manel Hamdi & Chaker Aloui, 2015. "Forecasting Crude Oil Price Using Artificial Neural Networks: A Literature Survey," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(2), pages 1339-1359.
    15. Gallo, Andres & Mason, Paul & Shapiro, Steve & Fabritius, Michael, 2010. "What is behind the increase in oil prices? Analyzing oil consumption and supply relationship with oil price," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4126-4141.
    16. Karasu, Seçkin & Altan, Aytaç & Bekiros, Stelios & Ahmad, Wasim, 2020. "A new forecasting model with wrapper-based feature selection approach using multi-objective optimization technique for chaotic crude oil time series," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    17. Safari, Ali & Davallou, Maryam, 2018. "Oil price forecasting using a hybrid model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 49-58.
    18. Gori, Fabio, 2016. "Mass and energy-capital conservation equations to forecast the oil price evolution with accumulation or depletion of the resources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 746-760.
    19. Eleyan, Mohammed I.Abu & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Balcılar, Mehmet & Ballı, Esra, 2021. "Are long-run income and price elasticities of oil demand time-varying? New evidence from BRICS countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    20. Gholami, M. & Barbaresi, A. & Torreggiani, D. & Tassinari, P., 2020. "Upscaling of spatial energy planning, phases, methods, and techniques: A systematic review through meta-analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    21. Abdollahi, Hooman, 2020. "A novel hybrid model for forecasting crude oil price based on time series decomposition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    22. Movagharnejad, Kamyar & Mehdizadeh, Bahman & Banihashemi, Morteza & Kordkheili, Masoud Sheikhi, 2011. "Forecasting the differences between various commercial oil prices in the Persian Gulf region by neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 3979-3984.

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