Multi-objective optimization of non-fossil energy structure in China towards the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals

Numerous nations and regions are earnestly dedicated to propelling energy transition. China accounts for 31.78 % of the total global carbon emissions, and China's energy structure holds paramount significance in the broader context of global initiatives. China has officially proposed to achieve the target of carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, imposing substantial pressure on the transformation of the energy structure. In this study, we propose a multi-objective optimization model for the non-fossil energy structure, encompassing three primary optimization objectives: maximizing power generation, minimizing economic costs, and reducing CO₂ emissions. The optimization involves determining the proportion of seven key non-fossil energy sources—hydropower, onshore wind, offshore wind, photovoltaic (PV), bioenergy, geothermal, and nuclear power—while adhering to constraints related to power demand, nuclear safety, and other factors. The analysis explores the installed capacity, power generation, power generation costs, and CO₂ emission reductions of non-fossil energy under distinct scenarios in 2025, 2030, and 2060. The findings reveal that by 2030, the optimal share of power generation should be sequenced as onshore wind, hydropower, nuclear power, offshore wind, PV, bioenergy, and geothermal. Subsequently, by 2060, the top three developed power should be onshore wind, nuclear power, and hydropower.