IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v139y2019icp1086-1098.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Developing an optimal renewable electricity generation mix for China using a fuzzy multi-objective approach

Author

Listed:
  • Yu, Shiwei
  • Zhou, Shuangshuang
  • Zheng, Shuhong
  • Li, Zhenxi
  • Liu, Lancui

Abstract

To achieve China’s 2030 goals for renewable energy development, this paper proposes a constrained fuzzy multi-objective optimization (FMO) model to obtain the optimal generation mix of four kinds of renewable power: hydropower, wind power, photovoltaic (PV) power, and biomass power. The optimization results show that a) the optimal mix of accumulated installed capacity of renewable energy in China from 2017 to 2022 is hydropower > wind > PV > biomass, while that from 2023 to 2030 is PV > hydropower > wind > biomass; b) the accumulated installed capacity of PV has the fastest growth between 2017 and 2030, and PV power will replace hydropower as the largest renewable power source in 2023. However, hydropower remains the largest renewable power through 2030 in terms of on-grid power generation; c) these four kinds of renewable power generation can eliminate 34.9–37.5 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions by replacing coal-fired power generation, with hydropower contributing the most to the reduction; and d) Investment cost per kilowatt or the rate of power curtailment is not sensitive factor for optimal cumulative installed capacity. The results mean that China should promote PV power generation in a rapid but systematic manner while continuing to develop hydropower.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu, Shiwei & Zhou, Shuangshuang & Zheng, Shuhong & Li, Zhenxi & Liu, Lancui, 2019. "Developing an optimal renewable electricity generation mix for China using a fuzzy multi-objective approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1086-1098.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:139:y:2019:i:c:p:1086-1098
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2019.03.011
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148119303167
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2019.03.011?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moura, Pedro S. & de Almeida, Aníbal T., 2010. "Multi-objective optimization of a mixed renewable system with demand-side management," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 1461-1468, June.
    2. Zhai, Pei & Williams, Eric D., 2012. "Analyzing consumer acceptance of photovoltaics (PV) using fuzzy logic model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 350-357.
    3. Awerbuch, Shimon & Yang, Spencer, 2007. "Efficient electricity generating portfolios for Europe: maximising energy security and climate change mitigation," EIB Papers 7/2007, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
    4. Ramli, Makbul A.M. & Bouchekara, H.R.E.H. & Alghamdi, Abdulsalam S., 2018. "Optimal sizing of PV/wind/diesel hybrid microgrid system using multi-objective self-adaptive differential evolution algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 400-411.
    5. Stojiljković, Mirko M., 2017. "Bi-level multi-objective fuzzy design optimization of energy supply systems aided by problem-specific heuristics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 1231-1251.
    6. Choi, Hyunhong & Shin, Jungwoo & Woo, JongRoul, 2018. "Effect of electricity generation mix on battery electric vehicle adoption and its environmental impact," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 13-24.
    7. Pereira, Sérgio & Ferreira, Paula & Vaz, A.I.F., 2016. "Optimization modeling to support renewables integration in power systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 316-325.
    8. Yu, Shiwei & Zhang, Junjie & Zheng, Shuhong & Sun, Han, 2015. "Provincial carbon intensity abatement potential estimation in China: A PSO–GA-optimized multi-factor environmental learning curve method," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 46-55.
    9. Yu, Shiwei & Zheng, Yali & Li, Longxi, 2019. "A comprehensive evaluation of the development and utilization of China's regional renewable energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 73-86.
    10. Yu, Shiwei & Wei, Yi-Ming & Guo, Haixiang & Ding, Liping, 2014. "Carbon emission coefficient measurement of the coal-to-power energy chain in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 290-300.
    11. Yi, Bo-Wen & Xu, Jin-Hua & Fan, Ying, 2016. "Inter-regional power grid planning up to 2030 in China considering renewable energy development and regional pollutant control: A multi-region bottom-up optimization model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 641-658.
    12. Brand, Bernhard & Missaoui, Rafik, 2014. "Multi-criteria analysis of electricity generation mix scenarios in Tunisia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 251-261.
    13. McPherson, Madeleine & Harvey, L.D. Danny & Karney, Bryan, 2017. "System design and operation for integrating variable renewable energy resources through a comprehensive characterization framework," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1019-1032.
    14. Vishnupriyan, J. & Manoharan, P.S., 2018. "Multi-criteria decision analysis for renewable energy integration: A southern India focus," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 474-488.
    15. Cowan, Kelly R. & Daim, Turgrul, 2009. "Comparative technological road-mapping for renewable energy," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 333-341.
    16. Atabaki, Mohammad Saeid & Aryanpur, Vahid, 2018. "Multi-objective optimization for sustainable development of the power sector: An economic, environmental, and social analysis of Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 493-507.
    17. He, Jiaxin & Liu, Ying & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "Should China support the development of biomass power generation?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 416-425.
    18. Haddad, Brahim & Liazid, Abdelkrim & Ferreira, Paula, 2017. "A multi-criteria approach to rank renewables for the Algerian electricity system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 462-472.
    19. Wang, Ning & Ren, Yixin & Zhu, Tao & Meng, Fanxin & Wen, Zongguo & Liu, Gengyuan, 2018. "Life cycle carbon emission modelling of coal-fired power: Chinese case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 841-852.
    20. Cappers, Peter & Mills, Andrew & Goldman, Charles & Wiser, Ryan & Eto, Joseph H., 2012. "An assessment of the role mass market demand response could play in contributing to the management of variable generation integration issues," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 420-429.
    21. Gharavi, H. & Ardehali, M.M. & Ghanbari-Tichi, S., 2015. "Imperial competitive algorithm optimization of fuzzy multi-objective design of a hybrid green power system with considerations for economics, reliability, and environmental emissions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 427-437.
    22. del Río, Pablo & Resch, Gustav & Ortner, Andre & Liebmann, Lukas & Busch, Sebastian & Panzer, Christian, 2017. "A techno-economic analysis of EU renewable electricity policy pathways in 2030," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 484-493.
    23. Zhu, Zhi-Shuang & Liao, Hua & Cao, Huai-Shu & Wang, Lu & Wei, Yi-Ming & Yan, Jinyue, 2014. "The differences of carbon intensity reduction rate across 89 countries in recent three decades," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 808-815.
    24. Luz, Thiago & Moura, Pedro & de Almeida, Aníbal, 2018. "Multi-objective power generation expansion planning with high penetration of renewables," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2637-2643.
    25. deLlano-Paz, Fernando & Calvo-Silvosa, Anxo & Antelo, Susana Iglesias & Soares, Isabel, 2017. "Energy planning and modern portfolio theory: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 636-651.
    26. Banaei, Mohsen & Rezaee, Babak, 2018. "Fuzzy scheduling of a non-isolated micro-grid with renewable resources," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 67-78.
    27. Zhang, Shuang & Zhao, Tao & Xie, Bai-Chen, 2018. "What is the optimal power generation mix of China? An empirical analysis using portfolio theory," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 522-536.
    28. Lee, Hsing-Chen & Chang, Ching-Ter, 2018. "Comparative analysis of MCDM methods for ranking renewable energy sources in Taiwan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 883-896.
    29. Santos-Alamillos, F.J. & Thomaidis, N.S. & Usaola-García, J. & Ruiz-Arias, J.A. & Pozo-Vázquez, D., 2017. "Exploring the mean-variance portfolio optimization approach for planning wind repowering actions in Spain," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 335-342.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. M, Jisma & Mohan, Vivek & Thomas, Mini Shaji & Madhu M, Nimal, 2022. "Risk-Calibrated conventional-renewable generation mix using master-slave portfolio approach guided by flexible investor preferencing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    2. Qin, Pengcheng & Xu, Hongmei & Liu, Min & Xiao, Chan & Forrest, Kate E. & Samuelsen, Scott & Tarroja, Brian, 2020. "Assessing concurrent effects of climate change on hydropower supply, electricity demand, and greenhouse gas emissions in the Upper Yangtze River Basin of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    3. Haoyi Zhang & Fuquan Zhao & Han Hao & Zongwei Liu, 2023. "Life Cycle Emissions of Passenger Vehicles in China: A Sensitivity Analysis of Multiple Influencing Factors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, March.
    4. Unni, Arjun C. & Ongsakul, Weerakorn & Madhu M., Nimal, 2020. "Fuzzy-based novel risk and reward definition applied for optimal generation-mix estimation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 665-673.
    5. Zhang, Haoyi & Zhao, Fuquan & Hao, Han & Liu, Zongwei, 2023. "Comparative analysis of life cycle greenhouse gas emission of passenger cars: A case study in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    6. Zaiter, Issa & Ramadan, Mohamad & Bouabid, Ali & El-Fadel, Mutasem & Mezher, Toufic, 2023. "Potential utilization of hydrogen in the UAE's industrial sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    7. Horasan, Muhammed Bilal & Kilic, Huseyin Selcuk, 2022. "A multi-objective decision-making model for renewable energy planning: The case of Turkey," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 484-504.
    8. Fang, Yujuan & Wei, Wei & Mei, Shengwei, 2022. "How dynamic renewable portfolio standards impact the diffusion of renewable energy in China? A networked evolutionary game analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 778-788.
    9. Assadi, Mohammad Reza & Ataebi, Melikasadat & Ataebi, Elmira sadat & Hasani, Aliakbar, 2022. "Prioritization of renewable energy resources based on sustainable management approach using simultaneous evaluation of criteria and alternatives: A case study on Iran's electricity industry," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 820-832.
    10. Hosseini Dehshiri, Seyyed Jalaladdin & Amiri, Maghsoud & Mostafaeipour, Ali & Le, Ttu, 2024. "Evaluation of renewable energy projects based on sustainability goals using a hybrid pythagorean fuzzy-based decision approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
    11. Zuo, Jingping & Qian, Cuncun & Su, Bing & Ji, Hao & Xu, Yang & Peng, Zhipeng, 2024. "Evaluation of future renewable energy drought risk in China based on CMIP6," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    12. Konstantinos Kokkinos & Vayos Karayannis, 2020. "Supportiveness of Low-Carbon Energy Technology Policy Using Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision-Making Methodologies," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-26, July.
    13. Shuangshuang Zhou & Juan Yang & Shiwei Yu, 2022. "A Stochastic Multi-Objective Model for China’s Provincial Generation-Mix Planning: Considering Variable Renewable and Transmission Capacity," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-26, April.
    14. Erdong Zhao & Jianmin Chen & Junmei Lan & Liwei Liu, 2024. "Power Generation Mix Optimization under Auction Mechanism for Carbon Emission Rights," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-24, January.
    15. Huang, Xiaoxun & Hayashi, Kiichiro & Fujii, Minoru & Villa, Ferdinando & Yamazaki, Yuri & Okazawa, Hiromu, 2023. "Identification of potential locations for small hydropower plant based on resources time footprint: A case study in Dan River Basin, China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 293-304.
    16. Ma, Weichao & Yan, Wenjie & Yang, Jiebin & He, Xianghui & Yang, Jiandong & Yang, Weijia, 2022. "Experimental and numerical investigation on head losses of a complex throttled surge tank for refined hydropower plant simulation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 264-279.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bilgili, Faik & Zarali, Fulya & Ilgün, Miraç Fatih & Dumrul, Cüneyt & Dumrul, Yasemin, 2022. "The evaluation of renewable energy alternatives for sustainable development in Turkey using ‌intuitionistic‌ ‌fuzzy‌-TOPSIS method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 1443-1458.
    2. Saraswat, S.K. & Digalwar, Abhijeet K., 2021. "Evaluation of energy alternatives for sustainable development of energy sector in India: An integrated Shannon’s entropy fuzzy multi-criteria decision approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 58-74.
    3. Saraswat, S.K. & Digalwar, Abhijeet K., 2021. "Empirical investigation and validation of sustainability indicators for the assessment of energy sources in India," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    4. Bonilla, Javier & Blanco, Julian & Zarza, Eduardo & Alarcón-Padilla, Diego C., 2022. "Feasibility and practical limits of full decarbonization of the electricity market with renewable energy: Application to the Spanish power sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PE).
    5. Shuangshuang Zhou & Juan Yang & Shiwei Yu, 2022. "A Stochastic Multi-Objective Model for China’s Provincial Generation-Mix Planning: Considering Variable Renewable and Transmission Capacity," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-26, April.
    6. Nock, Destenie & Baker, Erin, 2019. "Holistic multi-criteria decision analysis evaluation of sustainable electric generation portfolios: New England case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 655-673.
    7. Li, Tao & Li, Ang & Guo, Xiaopeng, 2020. "The sustainable development-oriented development and utilization of renewable energy industry——A comprehensive analysis of MCDM methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    8. Jamal, Taskin & Urmee, Tania & Shafiullah, G.M., 2020. "Planning of off-grid power supply systems in remote areas using multi-criteria decision analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    9. Shangli Zhou & Hengjing He & Leping Zhang & Wei Zhao & Fei Wang, 2023. "A Data-Driven Method to Monitor Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Coal-Fired Power Plants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-27, February.
    10. Zhang, Yaru & Ma, Tieju & Guo, Fei, 2018. "A multi-regional energy transport and structure model for China’s electricity system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 907-919.
    11. Dagoumas, Athanasios S. & Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E., 2019. "Review of models for integrating renewable energy in the generation expansion planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 1573-1587.
    12. Wang, Ni & Heijnen, Petra W. & Imhof, Pieter J., 2020. "A multi-actor perspective on multi-objective regional energy system planning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    13. Turkson, Charles & Liu, Wenbin & Acquaye, Adolf, 2024. "A data envelopment analysis based evaluation of sustainable energy generation portfolio scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 363(C).
    14. Paula Donaduzzi Rigo & Graciele Rediske & Carmen Brum Rosa & Natália Gava Gastaldo & Leandro Michels & Alvaro Luiz Neuenfeldt Júnior & Julio Cezar Mairesse Siluk, 2020. "Renewable Energy Problems: Exploring the Methods to Support the Decision-Making Process," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-27, December.
    15. Zhi-Fu Mi & Yi-Ming Wei & Chen-Qi He & Hua-Nan Li & Xiao-Chen Yuan & Hua Liao, 2017. "Regional efforts to mitigate climate change in China: a multi-criteria assessment approach," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 45-66, January.
    16. Mostafa Shaaban & Jürgen Scheffran & Jürgen Böhner & Mohamed S. Elsobki, 2018. "Sustainability Assessment of Electricity Generation Technologies in Egypt Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-25, May.
    17. Shu-Hong Wang & Ma-Lin Song & Tao Yu, 2019. "Hidden Carbon Emissions, Industrial Clusters, and Structure Optimization in China," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(4), pages 1319-1342, December.
    18. Alkan, Ömer & Albayrak, Özlem Karadağ, 2020. "Ranking of renewable energy sources for regions in Turkey by fuzzy entropy based fuzzy COPRAS and fuzzy MULTIMOORA," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 712-726.
    19. Constantino Dário Justo & José Eduardo Tafula & Pedro Moura, 2022. "Planning Sustainable Energy Systems in the Southern African Development Community: A Review of Power Systems Planning Approaches," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-28, October.
    20. Dorokhov, V.V. & Kuznetsov, G.V. & Vershinina, K.Yu. & Strizhak, P.A., 2021. "Relative energy efficiency indicators calculated for high-moisture waste-based fuel blends using multiple-criteria decision-making," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:139:y:2019:i:c:p:1086-1098. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.