Bio-energy with carbon storage (BECS): A sequential decision approach to the threat of abrupt climate change

Abrupt climate change (ACC) is an issue that ‘haunts the climate change problem’ but has so far been neglected by policy makers. This may have been because of an apparent lack of practicable measures for effective response, apart from risky geoengineering. If achieved on a sufficiently large scale, a portfolio of Bio-Energy with Carbon Storage (BECS) technologies, yielding a negative-emissions energy system, may be seen not only as benign geoengineering, free of the risks associated with other geoengineering, but also as one of the keys to being prepared for ACC. The nature of sequential future decisions is discussed; these will need to be taken in response to the evolution of future events, which is as yet unknown. The impact of such decisions on land-use change is related to a specific bio-energy conversion technology. The effects of a precautionary strategy, possibly leading to eventual land-use change on a large scale, is modeled using FLAMES (see Appendix A). Modeling shows that, using BECS, and under strong assumptions appropriate to imminent ACC, preindustrial CO2 levels can be restored by mid-century. Addressed to ACC rather than gradual climate change, a robust strategy related to Article 3.3 of the Convention may provide the basis for rapprochement between Kyoto Parties and other Annex 1 Parties.