An improved analytical model of effective thermal conductivity for hydrate-bearing sediments during elastic-plastic deformation and local thermal stimulation

As one of the crucial thermal properties controlling the dissociation of natural gas hydrate (NGH), effective thermal conductivity (ETC) should be precisely determined to improve the efficiency of NGH exploitation. But so far, most existing analytical ETC models of hydrate-bearing sediments could not accurately characterize the evolution of ETC. In this paper, an improved analytical model is derived for quantitatively revealing physical relations between ETC and various influencing factors during elastic-plastic deformation and local thermal stimulation processes, including hydrate saturation change, complex pore structures evolution, and hydrate occurrence patterns transition. The effectiveness of the proposed model is validated against available experimental data and compared with other existing models, then effects of various critical parameters on ETC are investigated. Results show that the porosity of hydrate-bearing sediments is accurately predicted during both loading and unloading processes, and the calculated ETC values under various conditions (effective stress, hydrate saturation, and temperature) are satisfactory with the test data. Contributions of elastic deformation and plastic deformation to ETC increments are quantitatively obtained. It is noteworthy that this proposed model is significant to reveal the evolution mechanisms of ETC, helping to accurately predict gas production and offer better plans for efficient NGH exploitations.