IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v297y2024ics0360544224010090.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Load forecasting for regional integrated energy system based on two-phase decomposition and mixture prediction model

Author

Listed:
  • Shi, Jian
  • Teh, Jiashen
  • Alharbi, Bader
  • Lai, Ching-Ming

Abstract

Current load forecasting methods struggle with the randomness and complexity of multiple loads in regional integrated energy systems, resulting in less accurate predictions. To address this problem, this paper proposes a novel two-phase decomposition hybrid forecasting model that combines complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition, sample entropy, variational mode decomposition, and genetic algorithm-bidirectional long short term memory. The proposed approach begins by decomposing the load sequence into multiple intrinsic mode function components at different frequencies using complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition. Afterward, the sample entropy values are calculated for each intrinsic mode function. The intrinsic mode function with the highest sample entropy value is subjected to a two-stage decomposition using the variational mode decomposition method. Through this technique, a series of stationary components is acquired. Subsequently, the bidirectional long short term memory model is optimized using the genetic algorithm, and the genetic algorithm-bidirectional long short term memory approach is employed to predict all the decomposed components. Finally, the prediction results are combined and reconstructed to obtain the final prediction value. Experimental results demonstrate the effective handling of non-stationary load sequences by the forecasting model, showcasing the highest level of accuracy in regional integrated energy system multiple loads forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Shi, Jian & Teh, Jiashen & Alharbi, Bader & Lai, Ching-Ming, 2024. "Load forecasting for regional integrated energy system based on two-phase decomposition and mixture prediction model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:297:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224010090
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.131236
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544224010090
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2024.131236?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cui, Mianshan, 2022. "District heating load prediction algorithm based on bidirectional long short-term memory network model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    2. Shichao Huang & Jing Zhang & Yu He & Xiaofan Fu & Luqin Fan & Gang Yao & Yongjun Wen, 2022. "Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on the CEEMDAN-Sample Entropy-BPNN-Transformer," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-14, May.
    3. Ding, Yunfei & Chen, Zijun & Zhang, Hongwei & Wang, Xin & Guo, Ying, 2022. "A short-term wind power prediction model based on CEEMD and WOA-KELM," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 188-198.
    4. Guohui Li & Siliang Wang, 2017. "Sunspots Time-Series Prediction Based on Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Wavelet Neural Network," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-7, March.
    5. Athanasios Ioannis Arvanitidis & Dimitrios Bargiotas & Aspassia Daskalopulu & Vasileios M. Laitsos & Lefteri H. Tsoukalas, 2021. "Enhanced Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-14, November.
    6. Chen, Yongbao & Xu, Peng & Chu, Yiyi & Li, Weilin & Wu, Yuntao & Ni, Lizhou & Bao, Yi & Wang, Kun, 2017. "Short-term electrical load forecasting using the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model to calculate the demand response baseline for office buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 659-670.
    7. Niu, Dongxiao & Yu, Min & Sun, Lijie & Gao, Tian & Wang, Keke, 2022. "Short-term multi-energy load forecasting for integrated energy systems based on CNN-BiGRU optimized by attention mechanism," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    8. Fang Guo & Shangyun Deng & Weijia Zheng & An Wen & Jinfeng Du & Guangshan Huang & Ruiyang Wang, 2022. "Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Based on the Two-Layer VMD Decomposition Technique and SSA-LSTM," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-20, November.
    9. Wang, Shaomin & Wang, Shouxiang & Chen, Haiwen & Gu, Qiang, 2020. "Multi-energy load forecasting for regional integrated energy systems considering temporal dynamic and coupling characteristics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    10. Shi, Jian & Teh, Jiashen, 2024. "Load forecasting for regional integrated energy system based on complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition and multi-model fusion," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PB).
    11. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-qi & Liang, Xi-feng & Li, Yan-fei, 2015. "Wind speed forecasting approach using secondary decomposition algorithm and Elman neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 183-194.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shi, Jian & Teh, Jiashen, 2024. "Load forecasting for regional integrated energy system based on complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition and multi-model fusion," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PB).
    2. Wang, Yongli & Wang, Huan & Meng, Xiao & Dong, Huanran & Chen, Xin & Xiang, Hao & Xing, Juntai, 2023. "Considering the dual endogenous-exogenous uncertainty integrated energy multiple load short-term forecast," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    3. Yan, Qin & Lu, Zhiying & Liu, Hong & He, Xingtang & Zhang, Xihai & Guo, Jianlin, 2024. "Short-term prediction of integrated energy load aggregation using a bi-directional simple recurrent unit network with feature-temporal attention mechanism ensemble learning model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 355(C).
    4. Hua, Pengmin & Wang, Haichao & Xie, Zichan & Lahdelma, Risto, 2024. "District heating load patterns and short-term forecasting for buildings and city level," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    5. Li, Chuang & Li, Guojie & Wang, Keyou & Han, Bei, 2022. "A multi-energy load forecasting method based on parallel architecture CNN-GRU and transfer learning for data deficient integrated energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    6. Tan, Mao & Liao, Chengchen & Chen, Jie & Cao, Yijia & Wang, Rui & Su, Yongxin, 2023. "A multi-task learning method for multi-energy load forecasting based on synthesis correlation analysis and load participation factor," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 343(C).
    7. Bilal, Boudy & Adjallah, Kondo Hloindo & Sava, Alexandre & Yetilmezsoy, Kaan & Ouassaid, Mohammed, 2023. "Wind turbine output power prediction and optimization based on a novel adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system with the moving window," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    8. Zhang, Wanying & He, Yaoyao & Yang, Shanlin, 2023. "A multi-step probability density prediction model based on gaussian approximation of quantiles for offshore wind power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 992-1011.
    9. Chen, Yongbao & Chen, Zhe & Xu, Peng & Li, Weilin & Sha, Huajing & Yang, Zhiwei & Li, Guowen & Hu, Chonghe, 2019. "Quantification of electricity flexibility in demand response: Office building case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    10. Liu, Xiaolei & Lin, Zi & Feng, Ziming, 2021. "Short-term offshore wind speed forecast by seasonal ARIMA - A comparison against GRU and LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    11. Wen Fan & Qing Liu & Mingyu Wang, 2021. "Bi-Level Multi-Objective Optimization Scheduling for Regional Integrated Energy Systems Based on Quantum Evolutionary Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-15, August.
    12. Zhang, Yagang & Wang, Hui & Wang, Jingchao & Cheng, Xiaodan & Wang, Tong & Zhao, Zheng, 2024. "Ensemble optimization approach based on hybrid mode decomposition and intelligent technology for wind power prediction system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    13. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    14. Ma, Jun & Cheng, Jack C.P., 2016. "Identifying the influential features on the regional energy use intensity of residential buildings based on Random Forests," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 193-201.
    15. Bingjie Jin & Guihua Zeng & Zhilin Lu & Hongqiao Peng & Shuxin Luo & Xinhe Yang & Haojun Zhu & Mingbo Liu, 2022. "Hybrid LSTM–BPNN-to-BPNN Model Considering Multi-Source Information for Forecasting Medium- and Long-Term Electricity Peak Load," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-20, October.
    16. Tsoumalis, Georgios I. & Bampos, Zafeirios N. & Biskas, Pandelis N. & Keranidis, Stratos D. & Symeonidis, Polychronis A. & Voulgarakis, Dimitrios K., 2022. "A novel system for providing explicit demand response from domestic natural gas boilers," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 317(C).
    17. Shengxiang Lv & Lin Wang & Sirui Wang, 2023. "A Hybrid Neural Network Model for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-18, February.
    18. Wang, Kejun & Qi, Xiaoxia & Liu, Hongda & Song, Jiakang, 2018. "Deep belief network based k-means cluster approach for short-term wind power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 840-852.
    19. Kailai Ni & Jianzhou Wang & Guangyu Tang & Danxiang Wei, 2019. "Research and Application of a Novel Hybrid Model Based on a Deep Neural Network for Electricity Load Forecasting: A Case Study in Australia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-30, June.
    20. Wang, Yun & Zou, Runmin & Liu, Fang & Zhang, Lingjun & Liu, Qianyi, 2021. "A review of wind speed and wind power forecasting with deep neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:297:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224010090. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.