IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v288y2024ics0360544223031079.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The ultra-short-term wind power point-interval forecasting model based on improved variational mode decomposition and bidirectional gated recurrent unit improved by improved sparrow search algorithm and attention mechanism

Author

Listed:
  • Cui, Xiwen
  • Yu, Xiaoyu
  • Niu, Dongxiao

Abstract

Ensuring the efficient scheduling of power systems and enhancing the grid's renewable energy integration efficiency heavily relies on the precision and dependability of wind power prediction. Based on this, an ultra-short-term wind power point-interval prediction framework is proposed. Firstly, the wind power data is preprocessed. Secondly, Random Forest(RF) is used to filter the factors affecting wind power data to eliminate redundant features. Third, using improved sparrow search algorithm(ISSA) to ascertain the optimal parameters in variational mode decomposition(VMD), the wind power sequence is decomposed to obtain a more regular sequence. Then, combining ISSA, bidirectional gated recurrent unit(BiGRU) and Attention, the ISSA-BiGRU-Attention model is constructed for the prediction of wind power subsequences. Finally, using the kernel density estimation(KDE) of Grid Search(GS)-Cross-Validation(CV), prediction intervals for wind power at varying confidence levels are calculated. The experimental results show that the RF-ISSA-VMD-ISSA-BiGRU-Attention prediction model has the great prediction accuracy compared with the comparison models. In dataset 1, the model possesses a good prediction result with an R2 of 0.997408 which is an improvement of 7.98 % compared with LSTM. In addition, the GS-CV-KDE interval prediction model enhances the practicability of prediction outcomes and offers more efficient prediction information for the assurance of power system safety and reliability.

Suggested Citation

  • Cui, Xiwen & Yu, Xiaoyu & Niu, Dongxiao, 2024. "The ultra-short-term wind power point-interval forecasting model based on improved variational mode decomposition and bidirectional gated recurrent unit improved by improved sparrow search algorithm a," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:288:y:2024:i:c:s0360544223031079
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.129714
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544223031079
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2023.129714?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xu, Xuefang & Hu, Shiting & Shi, Peiming & Shao, Huaishuang & Li, Ruixiong & Li, Zhi, 2023. "Natural phase space reconstruction-based broad learning system for short-term wind speed prediction: Case studies of an offshore wind farm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PA).
    2. Hu, Weicheng & Yang, Qingshan & Chen, Hua-Peng & Yuan, Ziting & Li, Chen & Shao, Shuai & Zhang, Jian, 2021. "New hybrid approach for short-term wind speed predictions based on preprocessing algorithm and optimization theory," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 2174-2186.
    3. Nosratabadi, Saeed & Mosavi, Amir & Duan, Puhong & Ghamisi, Pedram & Filip, Ferdinand & Band, Shahab S. & Reuter, Uwe & Gama, Joao & Gandomi, Amir H., 2020. "Data science in economics: comprehensive review of advanced machine learning and deep learning methods," OSF Preprints yc6e2, Center for Open Science.
    4. Liu, Hui & Chen, Chao, 2019. "Data processing strategies in wind energy forecasting models and applications: A comprehensive review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C), pages 392-408.
    5. Nosratabadi, Saeed & Mosavi, Amir & Duan, Puhong & Ghamisi, Pedram & Filip, Ferdinand & Band, Shahab S. & Reuter, Uwe & Gama, Joao & Gandomi, Amir H., 2020. "Data science in economics: comprehensive review of advanced machine learning and deep learning methods," MetaArXiv haf2v, Center for Open Science.
    6. Ding, Yunfei & Chen, Zijun & Zhang, Hongwei & Wang, Xin & Guo, Ying, 2022. "A short-term wind power prediction model based on CEEMD and WOA-KELM," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 188-198.
    7. Yu, Min & Niu, Dongxiao & Gao, Tian & Wang, Keke & Sun, Lijie & Li, Mingyu & Xu, Xiaomin, 2023. "A novel framework for ultra-short-term interval wind power prediction based on RF-WOA-VMD and BiGRU optimized by the attention mechanism," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    8. Nosratabadi, Saeed & Mosavi, Amir & Duan, Puhong & Ghamisi, Pedram & Filip, Ferdinand & Band, Shahab S. & Reuter, Uwe & Gama, Joao & Gandomi, Amir H., 2020. "Data science in economics: comprehensive review of advanced machine learning and deep learning methods," Thesis Commons auyvc, Center for Open Science.
    9. Cuevas-Figueroa, Gabriel & Stansby, Peter K. & Stallard, Timothy, 2022. "Accuracy of WRF for prediction of operational wind farm data and assessment of influence of upwind farms on power production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PB).
    10. Yu, Min & Niu, Dongxiao & Wang, Keke & Du, Ruoyun & Yu, Xiaoyu & Sun, Lijie & Wang, Feiran, 2023. "Short-term photovoltaic power point-interval forecasting based on double-layer decomposition and WOA-BiLSTM-Attention and considering weather classification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    11. Zhang, Fei & Li, Peng-Cheng & Gao, Lu & Liu, Yong-Qian & Ren, Xiao-Ying, 2021. "Application of autoregressive dynamic adaptive (ARDA) model in real-time wind power forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 129-143.
    12. Sward, J.A. & Ault, T.R. & Zhang, K.M., 2023. "Spatial biases revealed by LiDAR in a multiphysics WRF ensemble designed for offshore wind," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PA).
    13. Nosratabadi, Saeed & Mosavi, Amir & Duan, Puhong & Ghamisi, Pedram & Filip, Ferdinand & Band, Shahab S. & Reuter, Uwe & Gama, Joao & Gandomi, Amir H., 2020. "Data science in economics: comprehensive review of advanced machine learning and deep learning methods," LawArXiv kczj5, Center for Open Science.
    14. Nosratabadi, Saeed & Mosavi, Amir & Duan, Puhong & Ghamisi, Pedram & Filip, Ferdinand & Band, Shahab S. & Reuter, Uwe & Gama, Joao & Gandomi, Amir H., 2020. "Data science in economics: comprehensive review of advanced machine learning and deep learning methods," EdArXiv 5dwrt, Center for Open Science.
    15. Sun, Fei & Jin, Tongdan, 2022. "A hybrid approach to multi-step, short-term wind speed forecasting using correlated features," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 742-754.
    16. Liu, Chenyu & Zhang, Xuemin & Mei, Shengwei & Zhen, Zhao & Jia, Mengshuo & Li, Zheng & Tang, Haiyan, 2022. "Numerical weather prediction enhanced wind power forecasting: Rank ensemble and probabilistic fluctuation awareness," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    17. Nosratabadi, Saeed & Mosavi, Amir & Duan, Puhong & Ghamisi, Pedram & Filip, Ferdinand & Band, Shahab S. & Reuter, Uwe & Gama, Joao & Gandomi, Amir H., 2020. "Data science in economics: comprehensive review of advanced machine learning and deep learning methods," SocArXiv 9vdwf, Center for Open Science.
    18. Abdoos, Ali Akbar & Abdoos, Hatef & Kazemitabar, Javad & Mobashsher, Mohammad Mehdi & Khaloo, Hooman, 2023. "An intelligent hybrid method based on Monte Carlo simulation for short-term probabilistic wind power prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    19. Marcin Blachnik & Sławomir Walkowiak & Adam Kula, 2023. "Large Scale, Mid Term Wind Farms Power Generation Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-15, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Labib Shami & Teddy Lazebnik, 2024. "Implementing Machine Learning Methods in Estimating the Size of the Non-observed Economy," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(4), pages 1459-1476, April.
    2. Urko Aguirre-Larracoechea & Cruz E. Borges, 2021. "Imputation for Repeated Bounded Outcome Data: Statistical and Machine-Learning Approaches," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(17), pages 1-27, August.
    3. Lin, Yong & Wang, Renyu & Gong, Xingyue & Jia, Guozhu, 2022. "Cross-correlation and forecast impact of public attention on USD/CNY exchange rate: Evidence from Baidu Index," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    4. Oliver Hümbelin & Lukas Hobi & Robert Fluder, 2021. "Rich Cities, Poor Countryside? Social Structure of the Poor and Poverty Risks in Urban and Rural Places in an Affluent Country. An Administrative Data based Analysis using Random Forest," University of Bern Social Sciences Working Papers 40, University of Bern, Department of Social Sciences, revised 10 Nov 2021.
    5. Petr Suler & Zuzana Rowland & Tomas Krulicky, 2021. "Evaluation of the Accuracy of Machine Learning Predictions of the Czech Republic’s Exports to the China," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-30, February.
    6. Saeed Nosratabadi & Nesrine Khazami & Marwa Ben Abdallah & Zoltan Lackner & Shahab S. Band & Amir Mosavi & Csaba Mako, 2020. "Social Capital Contributions to Food Security: A Comprehensive Literature Review," Papers 2012.03606, arXiv.org.
    7. Cheng Zhang & Nilam Nur Amir Sjarif & Roslina Ibrahim, 2023. "Deep learning models for price forecasting of financial time series: A review of recent advancements: 2020-2022," Papers 2305.04811, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    8. Xiaodong Zhang & Suhui Liu & Xin Zheng, 2021. "Stock Price Movement Prediction Based on a Deep Factorization Machine and the Attention Mechanism," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-21, April.
    9. Teddy Lazebnik & Tzach Fleischer & Amit Yaniv-Rosenfeld, 2023. "Benchmarking Biologically-Inspired Automatic Machine Learning for Economic Tasks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-9, July.
    10. Di Wu & Zhenning Xu & Seung Bach, 2023. "Using Google Trends to predict and forecast avocado sales," Journal of Marketing Analytics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(4), pages 629-641, December.
    11. Yong-Chao Su & Cheng-Yu Wu & Cheng-Hong Yang & Bo-Sheng Li & Sin-Hua Moi & Yu-Da Lin, 2021. "Machine Learning Data Imputation and Prediction of Foraging Group Size in a Kleptoparasitic Spider," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-16, February.
    12. Mei-Li Shen & Cheng-Feng Lee & Hsiou-Hsiang Liu & Po-Yin Chang & Cheng-Hong Yang, 2021. "An Effective Hybrid Approach for Forecasting Currency Exchange Rates," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-29, March.
    13. Marcus Vinicius Santos & Fernando Morgado-Dias & Thiago C. Silva, 2023. "Oil Sector and Sentiment Analysis—A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-29, June.
    14. Ren, Yi-Shuai & Ma, Chao-Qun & Kong, Xiao-Lin & Baltas, Konstantinos & Zureigat, Qasim, 2022. "Past, present, and future of the application of machine learning in cryptocurrency research," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    15. ErLe Du & Meng Ji, 2021. "Analyzing the regional economic changes in a high-tech industrial development zone using machine learning algorithms," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-18, June.
    16. David G. Green, 2023. "Emergence in complex networks of simple agents," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 18(3), pages 419-462, July.
    17. Steve J. Bickley & Benno Torgler, 2021. "Behavioural Economics, What Have we Missed? Exploring “Classical” Behavioural Economics Roots in AI, Cognitive Psychology, and Complexity Theory," CREMA Working Paper Series 2021-21, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    18. Meir Russ, 2021. "Knowledge Management for Sustainable Development in the Era of Continuously Accelerating Technological Revolutions: A Framework and Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-32, March.
    19. Amir Masoud Rahmani & Efat Yousefpoor & Mohammad Sadegh Yousefpoor & Zahid Mehmood & Amir Haider & Mehdi Hosseinzadeh & Rizwan Ali Naqvi, 2021. "Machine Learning (ML) in Medicine: Review, Applications, and Challenges," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(22), pages 1-52, November.
    20. Liang She & Jianyuan Wang & Yifan Bo & Yangyan Zeng, 2022. "MACA: Multi-Agent with Credit Assignment for Computation Offloading in Smart Parks Monitoring," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(23), pages 1-18, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:288:y:2024:i:c:s0360544223031079. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.