IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v283y2023ics0360544223025069.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting uncertainty of a chiller plant power consumption using quantile random forest: A commercial building case study

Author

Listed:
  • Salimian Rizi, Behzad
  • Pavlak, Gregory
  • Cushing, Vincent
  • Heidarinejad, Mohammad

Abstract

Selecting an appropriate confidence level for chillers models could lead to better prediction of the peak electricity load, to more efficiently participate in demand response programs, and to manage the operation and performance of chiller plants. Therefore, this study aims to predict the power consumption of a chiller plant in a high-rise commercial building based on Quantile Random Forest (QRF). This study proposed a simplified data-driven approach to compute the lower and upper bounds of the prediction intervals (PIs) of power consumption for a chiller plant, consisting of four chillers. An evaluation of the proposed data-driven approach using measured datasets and computed PIs metrics demonstrates that the PI coverage probability for the samples in test datasets for all chiller models with the confidence level of 80% and 90%, are above 80% and 90%, respectively. Also, the results show that by increasing the confidence level from 80% to 90%, the upper and lower bounds of the demand charge differ from the actual value by a factor of 3.3 and 1.7 times greater, respectively. This approach has implications for developing sequences of operations for chiller plants in building automation systems for evaluating past performance and for achieving future optimization of these plants.

Suggested Citation

  • Salimian Rizi, Behzad & Pavlak, Gregory & Cushing, Vincent & Heidarinejad, Mohammad, 2023. "Predicting uncertainty of a chiller plant power consumption using quantile random forest: A commercial building case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:283:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223025069
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.129112
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544223025069
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2023.129112?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Feng, Yayuan & Yao, Jian & Li, Zhonghao & Zheng, Rongyue, 2022. "Uncertainty prediction of energy consumption in buildings under stochastic shading adjustment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    2. Chen, Yongbao & Chen, Zhe & Xu, Peng & Li, Weilin & Sha, Huajing & Yang, Zhiwei & Li, Guowen & Hu, Chonghe, 2019. "Quantification of electricity flexibility in demand response: Office building case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    3. Lu, Hongfang & Cheng, Feifei & Ma, Xin & Hu, Gang, 2020. "Short-term prediction of building energy consumption employing an improved extreme gradient boosting model: A case study of an intake tower," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    4. Ma, Jun & Cheng, Jack C.P., 2016. "Identifying the influential features on the regional energy use intensity of residential buildings based on Random Forests," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 193-201.
    5. Qing, Xiangyun & Niu, Yugang, 2018. "Hourly day-ahead solar irradiance prediction using weather forecasts by LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 461-468.
    6. Zhang, Wenjie & Quan, Hao & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2018. "Parallel and reliable probabilistic load forecasting via quantile regression forest and quantile determination," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 810-819.
    7. Wei, Xiupeng & Xu, Guanglin & Kusiak, Andrew, 2014. "Modeling and optimization of a chiller plant," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 898-907.
    8. Hong, Tao & Pinson, Pierre & Fan, Shu & Zareipour, Hamidreza & Troccoli, Alberto & Hyndman, Rob J., 2016. "Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 896-913.
    9. Le Cam, M. & Zmeureanu, R. & Daoud, A., 2017. "Cascade-based short-term forecasting method of the electric demand of HVAC system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 1098-1107.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kang, Yiting & Zhang, Dongjie & Cui, Yu & Xu, Wei & Lu, Shilei & Wu, Jianlin & Hu, Yiqun, 2024. "Integrated passive design method optimized for carbon emissions, economics, and thermal comfort of zero-carbon buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yusen Wang & Wenlong Liao & Yuqing Chang, 2018. "Gated Recurrent Unit Network-Based Short-Term Photovoltaic Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-14, August.
    2. Liu, Che & Li, Fan & Zhang, Chenghui & Sun, Bo & Zhang, Guanguan, 2023. "A day-ahead prediction method for high-resolution electricity consumption in residential units," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    3. Mohammad Mahdi Forootan & Iman Larki & Rahim Zahedi & Abolfazl Ahmadi, 2022. "Machine Learning and Deep Learning in Energy Systems: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-49, April.
    4. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2021. "Regularized quantile regression averaging for probabilistic electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    5. Dewangan, Chaman Lal & Singh, S.N. & Chakrabarti, S., 2020. "Combining forecasts of day-ahead solar power," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    6. Elsa Chaerun Nisa & Yean-Der Kuan, 2021. "Comparative Assessment to Predict and Forecast Water-Cooled Chiller Power Consumption Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning Algorithms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-18, January.
    7. Luo, Xing & Zhang, Dongxiao & Zhu, Xu, 2021. "Deep learning based forecasting of photovoltaic power generation by incorporating domain knowledge," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    8. Yayuan Feng & Youxian Huang & Haifeng Shang & Junwei Lou & Ala deen Knefaty & Jian Yao & Rongyue Zheng, 2022. "Prediction of Hourly Air-Conditioning Energy Consumption in Office Buildings Based on Gaussian Process Regression," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-19, June.
    9. Wang, Xinlin & Wang, Hao & Li, Shengping & Jin, Haizhen, 2024. "A reinforcement learning-based online learning strategy for real-time short-term load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    10. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    11. Cameron Roach & Rob Hyndman & Souhaib Ben Taieb, 2021. "Non‐linear mixed‐effects models for time series forecasting of smart meter demand," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1118-1130, September.
    12. Morovat, Navid & Athienitis, Andreas K. & Candanedo, José Agustín & Nouanegue, Hervé Frank, 2024. "Heuristic model predictive control implementation to activate energy flexibility in a fully electric school building," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    13. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Tomasz Serafin & Rafał Weron, 2018. "Selection of Calibration Windows for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-20, September.
    14. Kong, Xiangyu & Li, Chuang & Wang, Chengshan & Zhang, Yusen & Zhang, Jian, 2020. "Short-term electrical load forecasting based on error correction using dynamic mode decomposition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    15. Gao, Yuan & Miyata, Shohei & Akashi, Yasunori, 2022. "Interpretable deep learning models for hourly solar radiation prediction based on graph neural network and attention," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    16. Lu, Yakai & Tian, Zhe & Zhou, Ruoyu & Liu, Wenjing, 2021. "A general transfer learning-based framework for thermal load prediction in regional energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    17. Romain Dupin & Laura Cavalcante & Ricardo J. Bessa & Georges Kariniotakis & Andrea Michiorri, 2020. "Extreme Quantiles Dynamic Line Rating Forecasts and Application on Network Operation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-21, June.
    18. Ping-Huan Kuo & Chiou-Jye Huang, 2018. "A Green Energy Application in Energy Management Systems by an Artificial Intelligence-Based Solar Radiation Forecasting Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-15, April.
    19. Juraj Čurpek, 2019. "Time Evolution of Hurst Exponent: Czech Wholesale Electricity Market Study," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(3), pages 25-44.
    20. Roth, Jonathan & Martin, Amory & Miller, Clayton & Jain, Rishee K., 2020. "SynCity: Using open data to create a synthetic city of hourly building energy estimates by integrating data-driven and physics-based methods," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:283:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223025069. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.