IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v203y2020ics036054422030863x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short-term prediction of building energy consumption employing an improved extreme gradient boosting model: A case study of an intake tower

Author

Listed:
  • Lu, Hongfang
  • Cheng, Feifei
  • Ma, Xin
  • Hu, Gang

Abstract

Accurate prediction of building energy consumption is crucial for building energy management. However, the building energy consumption is affected by many factors and shows obvious nonlinear characteristics in the time series, which is difficult to predict. In this work, a novel hybrid model is proposed for predicting short-term building energy consumption. In this model, the raw data is decomposed into multiple smooth datasets using complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise, and the building energy consumption is predicted by the traditional extreme gradient boosting. Taking the daily energy consumption of the City of Bloomington Intake Tower as the simulation object, the results show that the mean absolute percentage error of the proposed model is 4.85%, which is much lower than that of five benchmark models. The proposed model is also applied to the prediction of other parameters related to the energy consumption of the intake tower, and shows good prediction performance. Moreover, the influences of the sliding window length and data attributes on the prediction results are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Lu, Hongfang & Cheng, Feifei & Ma, Xin & Hu, Gang, 2020. "Short-term prediction of building energy consumption employing an improved extreme gradient boosting model: A case study of an intake tower," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:203:y:2020:i:c:s036054422030863x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.117756
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054422030863X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2020.117756?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cao, Jian & Li, Zhi & Li, Jian, 2019. "Financial time series forecasting model based on CEEMDAN and LSTM," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 519(C), pages 127-139.
    2. Liu, Yang & Wang, Wei & Ghadimi, Noradin, 2017. "Electricity load forecasting by an improved forecast engine for building level consumers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 18-30.
    3. Wan, Kevin K.W. & Li, Danny H.W. & Pan, Wenyan & Lam, Joseph C., 2012. "Impact of climate change on building energy use in different climate zones and mitigation and adaptation implications," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 274-282.
    4. Lu, Hongfang & Ma, Xin & Azimi, Mohammadamin, 2020. "US natural gas consumption prediction using an improved kernel-based nonlinear extension of the Arps decline model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    5. Nicolas Huck, 2019. "Large data sets and machine learning: Applications to statistical arbitrage," Post-Print hal-02143971, HAL.
    6. Somu, Nivethitha & M R, Gauthama Raman & Ramamritham, Krithi, 2020. "A hybrid model for building energy consumption forecasting using long short term memory networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    7. Amber, K.P. & Ahmad, R. & Aslam, M.W. & Kousar, A. & Usman, M. & Khan, M.S., 2018. "Intelligent techniques for forecasting electricity consumption of buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 886-893.
    8. Clements, A.E. & Hurn, A.S. & Li, Z., 2016. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity load using a multiple equation time series approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(2), pages 522-530.
    9. Chou, Jui-Sheng & Tran, Duc-Son, 2018. "Forecasting energy consumption time series using machine learning techniques based on usage patterns of residential householders," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 709-726.
    10. Ciulla, G. & D'Amico, A., 2019. "Building energy performance forecasting: A multiple linear regression approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    11. Lu, Hongfang & Ma, Xin & Huang, Kun & Azimi, Mohammadamin, 2020. "Prediction of offshore wind farm power using a novel two-stage model combining kernel-based nonlinear extension of the Arps decline model with a multi-objective grey wolf optimizer," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    12. Huck, Nicolas, 2019. "Large data sets and machine learning: Applications to statistical arbitrage," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 330-342.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yayuan Feng & Youxian Huang & Haifeng Shang & Junwei Lou & Ala deen Knefaty & Jian Yao & Rongyue Zheng, 2022. "Prediction of Hourly Air-Conditioning Energy Consumption in Office Buildings Based on Gaussian Process Regression," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-19, June.
    2. Chou, Jui-Sheng & Truong, Dinh-Nhat & Kuo, Ching-Chiun, 2021. "Imaging time-series with features to enable visual recognition of regional energy consumption by bio-inspired optimization of deep learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    3. Palanisamy Manigandan & MD Shabbir Alam & Majed Alharthi & Uzma Khan & Kuppusamy Alagirisamy & Duraisamy Pachiyappan & Abdul Rehman, 2021. "Forecasting Natural Gas Production and Consumption in United States-Evidence from SARIMA and SARIMAX Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-17, September.
    4. Li, Guannan & Wu, Yubei & Yoon, Sungmin & Fang, Xi, 2024. "Comprehensive transferability assessment of short-term cross-building-energy prediction using deep adversarial network transfer learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    5. Lu, Hongfang & Ma, Xin & Ma, Minda, 2021. "A hybrid multi-objective optimizer-based model for daily electricity demand prediction considering COVID-19," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    6. Mohammad Mahdi Forootan & Iman Larki & Rahim Zahedi & Abolfazl Ahmadi, 2022. "Machine Learning and Deep Learning in Energy Systems: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-49, April.
    7. Liu, Che & Li, Fan & Zhang, Chenghui & Sun, Bo & Zhang, Guanguan, 2023. "A day-ahead prediction method for high-resolution electricity consumption in residential units," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    8. Yong Zhou & Lingyu Wang & Junhao Qian, 2022. "Application of Combined Models Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition, Deep Learning, and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model for Short-Term Heating Load Predictions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-20, June.
    9. Luca Di Persio & Nicola Fraccarolo, 2023. "Energy Consumption Forecasts by Gradient Boosting Regression Trees," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-17, February.
    10. Chen, Siliang & Ge, Wei & Liang, Xinbin & Jin, Xinqiao & Du, Zhimin, 2024. "Lifelong learning with deep conditional generative replay for dynamic and adaptive modeling towards net zero emissions target in building energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 353(PB).
    11. Xin Ma & Yubin Cai & Hong Yuan & Yanqiao Deng, 2023. "Partially Linear Component Support Vector Machine for Primary Energy Consumption Forecasting of the Electric Power Sector in the United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-26, April.
    12. Mengkun Liang & Renjing Guo & Hongyu Li & Jiaqi Wu & Xiangdong Sun, 2023. "T-LGBKS: An Interpretable Machine Learning Framework for Electricity Consumption Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-27, May.
    13. Li, Guannan & Li, Fan & Ahmad, Tanveer & Liu, Jiangyan & Li, Tao & Fang, Xi & Wu, Yubei, 2022. "Performance evaluation of sequence-to-sequence-Attention model for short-term multi-step ahead building energy predictions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    14. Fan, Cheng & Lei, Yutian & Sun, Yongjun & Piscitelli, Marco Savino & Chiosa, Roberto & Capozzoli, Alfonso, 2022. "Data-centric or algorithm-centric: Exploiting the performance of transfer learning for improving building energy predictions in data-scarce context," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    15. Salimian Rizi, Behzad & Pavlak, Gregory & Cushing, Vincent & Heidarinejad, Mohammad, 2023. "Predicting uncertainty of a chiller plant power consumption using quantile random forest: A commercial building case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Razak Olu-Ajayi & Hafiz Alaka & Hakeem Owolabi & Lukman Akanbi & Sikiru Ganiyu, 2023. "Data-Driven Tools for Building Energy Consumption Prediction: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-20, March.
    2. Somu, Nivethitha & Raman M R, Gauthama & Ramamritham, Krithi, 2021. "A deep learning framework for building energy consumption forecast," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Ali Koç & Serap Ulusam Seçkiner, 2024. "Analysing and forecasting the energy consumption of healthcare facilities in the short and medium term. A case study," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 34(3), pages 165-192.
    4. Fang, Lei & He, Bin, 2023. "A deep learning framework using multi-feature fusion recurrent neural networks for energy consumption forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).
    5. O’Sullivan, Conall & Papavassiliou, Vassilios G. & Wafula, Ronald Wekesa & Boubaker, Sabri, 2024. "New insights into liquidity resiliency," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    6. Guillaume Coqueret & Tony Guida, 2020. "Training trees on tails with applications to portfolio choice," Post-Print hal-04144665, HAL.
    7. Alexander Jakob Dautel & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Stefan Lessmann & Hsin-Vonn Seow, 2020. "Forex exchange rate forecasting using deep recurrent neural networks," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 69-96, September.
    8. Kriebel, Johannes & Stitz, Lennart, 2022. "Credit default prediction from user-generated text in peer-to-peer lending using deep learning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 302(1), pages 309-323.
    9. Hu, Yusha & Li, Jigeng & Hong, Mengna & Ren, Jingzheng & Lin, Ruojue & Liu, Yue & Liu, Mengru & Man, Yi, 2019. "Short term electric load forecasting model and its verification for process industrial enterprises based on hybrid GA-PSO-BPNN algorithm—A case study of papermaking process," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1215-1227.
    10. Fabian Waldow & Matthias Schnaubelt & Christopher Krauss & Thomas Günter Fischer, 2021. "Machine Learning in Futures Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-14, March.
    11. Erdinc Akyildirim & Ahmet Goncu & Alper Hekimoglu & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Ahmet Sensoy, 2023. "Statistical arbitrage: factor investing approach," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 45(4), pages 1295-1331, December.
    12. Wenninger, Simon & Kaymakci, Can & Wiethe, Christian, 2022. "Explainable long-term building energy consumption prediction using QLattice," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    13. Rama Cont & Mihai Cucuringu & Chao Zhang, 2021. "Cross-Impact of Order Flow Imbalance in Equity Markets," Papers 2112.13213, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    14. Guillaume Coqueret & Tony Guida, 2020. "Training trees on tails with applications to portfolio choice," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 288(1), pages 181-221, May.
    15. Tamer, Tolga & Gürsel Dino, Ipek & Meral Akgül, Cagla, 2022. "Data-driven, long-term prediction of building performance under climate change: Building energy demand and BIPV energy generation analysis across Turkey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    16. Venkatraj, V. & Dixit, M.K., 2022. "Challenges in implementing data-driven approaches for building life cycle energy assessment: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    17. Erdinc Akyildirim & Oguzhan Cepni & Shaen Corbet & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2023. "Forecasting mid-price movement of Bitcoin futures using machine learning," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 330(1), pages 553-584, November.
    18. Kolesnikova, A. & Yang, Y. & Lessmann, S. & Ma, T. & Sung, M.-C. & Johnson, J.E.V., 2019. "Can Deep Learning Predict Risky Retail Investors? A Case Study in Financial Risk Behavior Forecasting," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2019-023, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    19. Ding, Zhikun & Chen, Weilin & Hu, Ting & Xu, Xiaoxiao, 2021. "Evolutionary double attention-based long short-term memory model for building energy prediction: Case study of a green building," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    20. Bottmer, Lea & Croux, Christophe & Wilms, Ines, 2022. "Sparse regression for large data sets with outliers," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 297(2), pages 782-794.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:203:y:2020:i:c:s036054422030863x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.