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Risk assessment for cascading failures in regional integrated energy system considering the pipeline dynamics

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  • Liang, Weikun
  • Lin, Shunjiang
  • Liu, Mingbo
  • Sheng, Xuan
  • Pan, Yue
  • Liu, Yun

Abstract

With the close coupling of multiple energies (i.e., electricity, gas, cold, and heat) in a regional integrated energy system (RIES), failures in an energy subsystem can easily propagate to other energy subsystems via multi-energy coupling devices and result in cascading failures. Considering the dynamics of pipeline energy transmission and pipeline leakage failures, a novel dynamic model of analyzing the cooling/heating or gas pipeline leakage failure is proposed. Then a risk assessment model for cascading failures in a RIES is established, including the calculation of the probability and severity of cascading failure chain (CFC). A model for determining the failure probability of multi-energy coupling devices based on the device operation state is established, and a method for calculating the probability of CFC based on Bayes theorem is proposed. Considering the uncertainty and time correlation of renewable power, an ambiguity set based on the Jensen–Shannon divergence and the moment information of actual historical data is proposed, and then a distributionally robust optimization model for calculating the severity of CFC is established and solved by the column-and-constraint generation algorithm. Test results on a RIES demonstrate the high computational accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method.

Suggested Citation

  • Liang, Weikun & Lin, Shunjiang & Liu, Mingbo & Sheng, Xuan & Pan, Yue & Liu, Yun, 2023. "Risk assessment for cascading failures in regional integrated energy system considering the pipeline dynamics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:270:y:2023:i:c:s036054422300292x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.126898
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    4. Liu, Zeyu & Li, Hang & Hou, Kai & Xu, Xiandong & Jia, Hongjie & Zhu, Lewei & Mu, Yunfei, 2023. "Risk assessment and alleviation of regional integrated energy system considering cross-system failures," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).
    5. Labiba Noshin Asha & Ying Huang & Nita Yodo & Haitao Liao, 2023. "A Quantitative Approach of Measuring Sustainability Risk in Pipeline Infrastructure Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-17, September.
    6. Yan, Jingjing & Zhang, Huan & Wang, Yaran & Zhu, Zhaozhe & Bai, He & Li, Qicheng & You, Shijun, 2024. "Pump-stopping-induced hydraulic oscillations in long-distance district heating system: Modelling and a comprehensive analysis of critical factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    7. Yan Ma & Yumin Chen & Zhengwei Chang & Qian Li & Hongli Liu & Yang Wei, 2023. "Power Side Risk Assessment of Multi-Energy Microgrids Considering Risk Propagation between Interconnected Energy Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-13, November.
    8. Zhang, Chenwei & Wang, Ying & Zheng, Tao & Wang, Chen & Zhang, Kaifeng, 2024. "Identifying critical weak points of power-gas integrated energy system based on complex network theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).

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