IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v259y2022ics0360544222018825.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Market adoption simulation of electric vehicle based on social network model considering nudge policies

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Qi
  • Liu, Jiangfeng
  • Yang, Kexin
  • Liu, Boyu
  • Wang, Ge

Abstract

The promotion of electric vehicle (EV) is crucial for China to achieve the carbon neutrality by 2060. However, apart from economic incentives, the large-scale market penetration of EV is still hindered by consumer behavior factors like preference and attitude, which were rarely analyzed in the existing studies. Therefore, in the present study, the market adoption of EV among the consumers with bounded rationality and attitude-behavior gap in different policy scenarios was studied by using a developed social network model, and the data mining methods were applied to collect and analyze consumers’ online behavior data. Moreover, the key nudge policies were proposed and simulated by using the developed model, and the obtained results show that: i) The nudge policy of information propaganda promotion has a considerable promotion effect on EV adoption, and combining nudge polices and charging infrastructure has much more promotion effects comparing with charging subsidy; ii) The consumers’ over communication will have negative effects on the adoption of EV, therefore nudge polices are necessary to control or reduce the over-communication properly. iii) The purchase subsidy is obviously important for promoting EV adoption at present, thus its phaseout should be carried out step by step.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Qi & Liu, Jiangfeng & Yang, Kexin & Liu, Boyu & Wang, Ge, 2022. "Market adoption simulation of electric vehicle based on social network model considering nudge policies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:259:y:2022:i:c:s0360544222018825
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.124984
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544222018825
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2022.124984?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yongyou Nie & Enci Wang & Qinxin Guo & Junyi Shen, 2018. "Examining Shanghai Consumer Preferences for Electric Vehicles and Their Attributes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-16, June.
    2. Hou, Rui & Lei, Lei & Jin, Kangning & Lin, Xiaogang & Xiao, Lu, 2022. "Introducing electric vehicles? Impact of network effect on profits and social welfare," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    3. Carlsson, Fredrik & Jaime, Marcela & Villegas, Clara, 2021. "Behavioral spillover effects from a social information campaign," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    4. Ajzen, Icek, 1991. "The theory of planned behavior," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 179-211, December.
    5. Noel, Lance & Papu Carrone, Andrea & Jensen, Anders Fjendbo & Zarazua de Rubens, Gerardo & Kester, Johannes & Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2019. "Willingness to pay for electric vehicles and vehicle-to-grid applications: A Nordic choice experiment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 525-534.
    6. Li, Xin & Xie, Qianqian & Jiang, Jiaojiao & Zhou, Yuan & Huang, Lucheng, 2019. "Identifying and monitoring the development trends of emerging technologies using patent analysis and Twitter data mining: The case of perovskite solar cell technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 687-705.
    7. Liu, Xiaoling & Sun, Xiaohua & Li, Mingshan & Zhai, Yu, 2020. "The effects of demonstration projects on electric vehicle diffusion: An empirical study in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    8. Qian, Lixian & Grisolía, Jose M. & Soopramanien, Didier, 2019. "The impact of service and government-policy attributes on consumer preferences for electric vehicles in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 70-84.
    9. Xiao, Xu & Chen, Zi-Rui & Nie, Pu-Yan, 2020. "Analysis of two subsidies for EVs: Based on an expanded theoretical discrete-choice model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    10. Ramos-Real, Francisco J. & Ramírez-Díaz, Alfredo & Marrero, Gustavo A. & Perez, Yannick, 2018. "Willingness to pay for electric vehicles in island regions: The case of Tenerife (Canary Islands)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 140-149.
    11. Jang, Sungsoon & Choi, Jae Young, 2021. "Which consumer attributes will act crucial roles for the fast market adoption of electric vehicles?: Estimation on the asymmetrical & heterogeneous consumer preferences on the EVs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    12. Kong, Deyang & Xia, Quhong & Xue, Yixi & Zhao, Xin, 2020. "Effects of multi policies on electric vehicle diffusion under subsidy policy abolishment in China: A multi-actor perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    13. Huang, Xiaoqiao & Li, Qiong & Tai, Yonghang & Chen, Zaiqing & Liu, Jun & Shi, Junsheng & Liu, Wuming, 2022. "Time series forecasting for hourly photovoltaic power using conditional generative adversarial network and Bi-LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    14. Wang, Shanyong & Li, Jun & Zhao, Dingtao, 2017. "The impact of policy measures on consumer intention to adopt electric vehicles: Evidence from China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 14-26.
    15. Li, Wenbo & Long, Ruyin & Chen, Hong & Geng, Jichao, 2017. "A review of factors influencing consumer intentions to adopt battery electric vehicles," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 318-328.
    16. Wang, Ge & Zhang, Qi & Li, Yan & Li, Hailong, 2018. "Policy simulation for promoting residential PV considering anecdotal information exchanges based on social network modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 1-10.
    17. Lu, Tianwei & Yao, Enjian & Jin, Fanglei & Yang, Yang, 2022. "Analysis of incentive policies for electric vehicle adoptions after the abolishment of purchase subsidy policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    18. Liu, Boyu & Zhang, Qi & Liu, Jiangfeng & Hao, Yawei & Tang, Yanyan & Li, Yaoming, 2022. "The impacts of critical metal shortage on China's electric vehicle industry development and countermeasure policies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    19. Ma, Shao-Chao & Xu, Jin-Hua & Fan, Ying, 2019. "Willingness to pay and preferences for alternative incentives to EV purchase subsidies: An empirical study in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 197-215.
    20. Diao, Qinghua & Sun, Wei & Yuan, Xinmei & Li, Lili & Zheng, Zhi, 2016. "Life-cycle private-cost-based competitiveness analysis of electric vehicles in China considering the intangible cost of traffic policies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 567-578.
    21. Li, Jingjing & Jiao, Jianling & Tang, Yunshu, 2020. "Analysis of the impact of policies intervention on electric vehicles adoption considering information transmission—based on consumer network model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    22. Sun, Xiaohua & Liu, Xiaoling & Wang, Yun & Yuan, Fang, 2019. "The effects of public subsidies on emerging industry: An agent-based model of the electric vehicle industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 281-295.
    23. Palm, Alvar & Lantz, Björn, 2020. "Information dissemination and residential solar PV adoption rates: The effect of an information campaign in Sweden," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    24. Qiu, Y.Q. & Tsan Sheng Ng, Adam & Zhou, P., 2022. "Optimizing urban electric vehicle incentive policy mixes in China: Perspective of residential preference heterogeneity," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    25. Bale, Catherine S.E. & McCullen, Nicholas J. & Foxon, Timothy J. & Rucklidge, Alastair M. & Gale, William F., 2013. "Harnessing social networks for promoting adoption of energy technologies in the domestic sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 833-844.
    26. Jenn Richler, 2020. "Nudging out consumer welfare," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 5(2), pages 117-117, February.
    27. Zhao, Xin & Doering, Otto C. & Tyner, Wallace E., 2015. "The economic competitiveness and emissions of battery electric vehicles in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 666-675.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xiong, Siqin & Yuan, Yi & Yao, Jia & Bai, Bo & Ma, Xiaoming, 2023. "Exploring consumer preferences for electric vehicles based on the random coefficient logit model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PA).
    2. Sprei, Frances & Kempton, Willett, 2024. "Mental models guide electric vehicle charging," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    3. Wang, Yitong & Fan, Ruguo & Du, Kang & Bao, Xuguang, 2023. "Exploring incentives to promote electric vehicles diffusion under subsidy abolition: An evolutionary analysis on multiplex consumer social networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    4. Zeng, Yongchao & Shi, Yingying & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Liu, Qin, 2024. "Scenario-based policy representative exploration: A novel approach to analyzing policy portfolios and its application to low-carbon energy diffusion," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    5. Yang, Yang & He, Weijun & Jiang, Ningye & Xu, Shasha & Ramsey, Thomas Stephen & Yuan, Liang, 2024. "The intertemporal choice study of individual water-saving irrigation construction under three water pricing and subsidy scenarios," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    6. Yanwei Zhang & Xinhai Lu & Yucheng Zou & Tiangui Lv, 2022. "Nudging Strategies for Arable Land Protection Behavior in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-20, October.
    7. Gao, Zhihui & Zhang, Qi & Liu, Boyu & Liu, Jiangfeng & Wang, Ge & Ni, Ruiyan & Yang, Kexin, 2024. "The driving factors and mitigation strategy of CO2 emissions from China's passenger vehicle sector towards carbon neutrality," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    8. Cheng, Xiu & Li, Wenbo & Yang, Jiameng & Zhang, Linling, 2023. "How convenience and informational tools shape waste separation behavior: A social network approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Yitong & Fan, Ruguo & Du, Kang & Bao, Xuguang, 2023. "Exploring incentives to promote electric vehicles diffusion under subsidy abolition: An evolutionary analysis on multiplex consumer social networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    2. Li, Jingjing & Jiao, Jianling & Tang, Yunshu, 2020. "Analysis of the impact of policies intervention on electric vehicles adoption considering information transmission—based on consumer network model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    3. Yang, J. & Chen, F., 2021. "How are social-psychological factors related to consumer preferences for plug-in electric vehicles? Case studies from two cities in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    4. Yao, Xusheng & Ma, Shoufeng & Bai, Yin & Jia, Ning, 2022. "When are new energy vehicle incentives effective? Empirical evidence from 88 pilot cities in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 207-224.
    5. Jia, Wenjian & Jiang, Zhiqiu & Wang, Qian & Xu, Bin & Xiao, Mei, 2023. "Preferences for zero-emission vehicle attributes: Comparing early adopters with mainstream consumers in California," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 21-32.
    6. Li, Jingjing & Nian, Victor & Jiao, Jianling, 2022. "Diffusion and benefits evaluation of electric vehicles under policy interventions based on a multiagent system dynamics model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    7. Oryani, Bahareh & Koo, Yoonmo & Shafiee, Afsaneh & Rezania, Shahabaldin & Jung, Jiyeon & Choi, Hyunhong & Khan, Muhammad Kamran, 2022. "Heterogeneous preferences for EVs: Evidence from Iran," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 675-691.
    8. Jia, Wenjian & Chen, T. Donna, 2023. "Investigating heterogeneous preferences for plug-in electric vehicles: Policy implications from different choice models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    9. Pedro Gerber Machado & Ana Carolina Rodrigues Teixeira & Edmilson Moutinho dos Santos & Dominique Mouette, 2023. "Electric vehicles adoption: A systematic review (2016–2020)," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), September.
    10. Ruguo Fan & Rongkai Chen, 2022. "Promotion Policies for Electric Vehicle Diffusion in China Considering Dynamic Consumer Preferences: A Network-Based Evolutionary Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-21, April.
    11. Ye, Fei & Kang, Wanlin & Li, Lixu & Wang, Zhiqiang, 2021. "Why do consumers choose to buy electric vehicles? A paired data analysis of purchase intention configurations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 14-27.
    12. Wang, Chao & Yang, Jae-Jang & Zhang, Xinyu & Lee, Yong-Ki, 2024. "Does value orientation predict buying intention of new energy vehicles?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 68-75.
    13. Liu, Yiran & Zhao, Xiaolei & Lu, Dan & Li, Xiaomin, 2023. "Impact of policy incentives on the adoption of electric vehicle in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    14. Qin, Shufeng & Xiong, Yongqing, 2022. "Innovation strategies of Chinese new energy vehicle enterprises under the influence of non-financial policies: Effects, mechanisms and implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    15. Kong, Deyang & Xia, Quhong & Xue, Yixi & Zhao, Xin, 2020. "Effects of multi policies on electric vehicle diffusion under subsidy policy abolishment in China: A multi-actor perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    16. Xiong, Siqin & Yuan, Yi & Yao, Jia & Bai, Bo & Ma, Xiaoming, 2023. "Exploring consumer preferences for electric vehicles based on the random coefficient logit model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PA).
    17. Ye Yang & Zhongfu Tan, 2019. "Investigating the Influence of Consumer Behavior and Governmental Policy on the Diffusion of Electric Vehicles in Beijing, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-20, December.
    18. Bansal, Prateek & Kumar, Rajeev Ranjan & Raj, Alok & Dubey, Subodh & Graham, Daniel J., 2021. "Willingness to pay and attitudinal preferences of Indian consumers for electric vehicles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    19. Nie, Qingyun & Zhang, Lihui & Tong, Zihao & Hubacek, Klaus, 2022. "Strategies for applying carbon trading to the new energy vehicle market in China: An improved evolutionary game analysis for the bus industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    20. Zhao, Xingrong & Ma, Ye & Shao, Shuai & Ma, Tieju, 2022. "What determines consumers' acceptance of electric vehicles: A survey in Shanghai, China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:259:y:2022:i:c:s0360544222018825. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.