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Introducing climate variability in energy systems modelling

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  • Amorim, Filipa
  • Simoes, Sofia G.
  • Siggini, Gildas
  • Assoumou, Edi

Abstract

This paper presents the ongoing research within Clim2Power project Portuguese case study. Its main goal (as a first step) is to show the relevance of using a highly detailed spatial and temporal modeling tool of the Portuguese electricity system in order to be able to adequately capture climate variability in the planning of the system up to 2050. To do so, we consider seasonal and intraday hydro, wind and solar resources variability in a large TIMES energy system model, in the eTIMES_PT model. Existing hydro, wind and thermal powerplants are modelled individually, whereas new plants are modelled at municipality level. The importance of introducing climate variability is assessed by modeling six scenarios: a reference case and both “humid” and “dry” hydropower scenarios. Each of these is also modelled with CO2 emissions cap by 2050. Results show that hydropower electricity generation variations are within range of those referred in literature by other authors. However, in this work, we are able to capture higher variations within seasons and time of day. Also, the analysis enables to account for the combined variability of hydro, PV and wind resources. This variability will subsequently consider data from seasonal forecasts and climate projections.

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  • Amorim, Filipa & Simoes, Sofia G. & Siggini, Gildas & Assoumou, Edi, 2020. "Introducing climate variability in energy systems modelling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:206:y:2020:i:c:s0360544220311968
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.118089
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    Cited by:

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    2. Shaik, Saleem, 2024. "Contribution of climate change to sector-source energy demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    3. Figueiredo, Raquel & Nunes, Pedro & Brito, Miguel C., 2021. "The resilience of a decarbonized power system to climate variability: Portuguese case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    4. Frapin, Marie & Roux, Charlotte & Assoumou, Edi & Peuportier, Bruno, 2022. "Modelling long-term and short-term temporal variation and uncertainty of electricity production in the life cycle assessment of buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    5. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    6. Fortes, Patrícia & Simoes, Sofia G. & Amorim, Filipa & Siggini, Gildas & Sessa, Valentina & Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie & Carvalho, Sílvia & Mujtaba, Babar & Diogo, Paulo & Assoumou, Edi, 2022. "How sensitive is a carbon-neutral power sector to climate change? The interplay between hydro, solar and wind for Portugal," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).

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