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Business-as-usual redefined: Energy systems under climate-damaged economies warrant review of nationally determined contributions

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  • Bastien-Olvera, Bernardo A.

Abstract

This paper presents a new approach to incorporate climate damages in the BAU emissions baselines. The shared socio-economic pathways framework is used to inform country-level changes in the mean surface temperature for the climate projections associated with each scenario. The temperature changes are used to calculate the economic damages using empirical estimates of climate effects on GDP growth. Finally, an energy system model is used under the original socio-economic assumptions and the climate-damaged assumptions, illustrating the indirect effect of climate change in a country-level energy system.

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  • Bastien-Olvera, Bernardo A., 2019. "Business-as-usual redefined: Energy systems under climate-damaged economies warrant review of nationally determined contributions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 862-868.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:170:y:2019:i:c:p:862-868
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.12.205
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