IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v77y2015icp152-163.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Ex-ante evaluation of EU ETS during 2013–2030: EU-internal abatement

Author

Listed:
  • Hu, Jing
  • Crijns-Graus, Wina
  • Lam, Long
  • Gilbert, Alyssa

Abstract

This study investigates CO2 emission reduction within the EU resulting from the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) up to 2030. This is performed by constructing a baseline scenario without the ETS and assessing the impacts of the ETS, as currently designed. The results indicate that the ETS will start to impact emissions primarily after 2025 due to the prevalence of a sizable allowance surplus. The impact of approved (i.e. back-loading and 2.2% linear reduction factor (LRF)) and proposed (i.e. market stability reserve (MSR)) policy interventions and the inclusion of aviation, could accelerate the exhaustion of surplus and increase emission reductions during the investigated period. However, these measures would be insufficient to restore the scarcity of allowances and the corresponding carbon price before the start of ETS Phase IV, and the effectiveness of EU-internal abatement cannot be guaranteed until 2023. The effectiveness could be further reduced in the case of the economic shocks or the exclusion of international aviation.

Suggested Citation

  • Hu, Jing & Crijns-Graus, Wina & Lam, Long & Gilbert, Alyssa, 2015. "Ex-ante evaluation of EU ETS during 2013–2030: EU-internal abatement," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 152-163.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:77:y:2015:i:c:p:152-163
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2014.11.023
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421514006314
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.11.023?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tim Laing & Misato Sato & Michael Grubb & Claudia Comberti, 2013. "Assessing the effectiveness of the EU Emissions Trading System," GRI Working Papers 106, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    2. Macintosh, Andrew & Wallace, Lailey, 2009. "International aviation emissions to 2025: Can emissions be stabilised without restricting demand?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 264-273, January.
    3. Anne Schopp & Karsten Neuhoff, 2013. "The Role of Hedging in Carbon Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1271, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Karsten Neuhoff & Anne Schopp & Rodney Boyd & Kateryna Stelmakh & Alexander Vasa, 2012. "Banking of Surplus Emissions Allowances: Does the Volume Matter?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1196, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Venmans, Frank, 2012. "A literature-based multi-criteria evaluation of the EU ETS," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(8), pages 5493-5510.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nina Hagemann & Erik Gawel & Alexandra Purkus & Nadine Pannicke & Jennifer Hauck, 2016. "Possible Futures towards a Wood-Based Bioeconomy: A Scenario Analysis for Germany," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, January.
    2. Standardi, Gabriele & Cai, Yiyong & Yeh, Sonia, 2017. "Sensitivity of modeling results to technological and regional details: The case of Italy's carbon mitigation policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 116-128.
    3. Pilar Gargallo & Luis Lample & Jesús A. Miguel & Manuel Salvador, 2021. "Co-Movements between Eu Ets and the Energy Markets: A Var-Dcc-Garch Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(15), pages 1-36, July.
    4. Pao-Yu Oei and Roman Mendelevitch, 2016. "European Scenarios of CO2 Infrastructure Investment until 2050," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Sustainab).
    5. Huang, Wenyang & Zhao, Jianyu & Wang, Xiaokang, 2024. "Model-driven multimodal LSTM-CNN for unbiased structural forecasting of European Union allowances open-high-low-close price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    6. Brouwers, Roel & Schoubben, Frederiek & Van Hulle, Cynthia & Van Uytbergen, Steve, 2016. "The initial impact of EU ETS verification events on stock prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 138-149.
    7. Qiu, Rui & Hou, Shuhua & Meng, Zhiyi, 2021. "Low carbon air transport development trends and policy implications based on a scientometrics-based data analysis system," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-10.
    8. Anissa Nurdiawati & Frauke Urban, 2021. "Towards Deep Decarbonisation of Energy-Intensive Industries: A Review of Current Status, Technologies and Policies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-33, April.
    9. Roman Mendelevitch & Pao-Yu Oei, 2015. "The Impact of Policy Measures on Future Power Generation Portfolio and Infrastructure: A Combined Electricity and CCTS Investment and Dispatch Model (ELCO)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1521, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Hu, Jing & Harmsen, Robert & Crijns-Graus, Wina & Worrell, Ernst & van den Broek, Machteld, 2018. "Identifying barriers to large-scale integration of variable renewable electricity into the electricity market: A literature review of market design," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2181-2195.
    11. Richard S.J. Tol, 2017. "Leaving an emissions trading scheme – insights from the United Kingdom," Working Paper Series 1017, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    12. Yin, S. & Wang, J. & Li, Z. & Fang, X., 2021. "State-of-the-art short-term electricity market operation with solar generation: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    13. Huiqin Jiang & Xinxiao Shao & Xiao Zhang & Jianqiang Bao, 2017. "A Study of the Allocation of Carbon Emission Permits among the Provinces of China Based on Fairness and Efficiency," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-17, November.
    14. Thouraya Bahri & Aditya Singh, 2021. "COVID-19 and the Impact on Debt: Policy Implications," Working Papers 2107, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    15. Atalla, Tarek & Bigerna, Simona & Bollino, Carlo Andrea & Polinori, Paolo, 2018. "An alternative assessment of global climate policies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1272-1289.
    16. Overland, Indra & Sabyrbekov, Rahat, 2022. "Know your opponent: Which countries might fight the European carbon border adjustment mechanism?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    17. Dong, Zhaoyingzi & Xiao, Yue, 2024. "Carbon emissions trading policy and climate injustice: A study on economic distributional impacts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    18. Kiss, Tibor & Popovics, Steve, 2021. "Evaluation on the effectiveness of energy policies – Evidence from the carbon reductions in 25 countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lucia, Julio J. & Mansanet-Bataller, Maria & Pardo, Ángel, 2015. "Speculative and hedging activities in the European carbon market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 342-351.
    2. Joltreau, Eugénie & Sommerfeld, Katrin, 2016. "Why does emissions trading under the EU ETS not affect firms' competitiveness? Empirical findings from the literature," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    3. Richstein, Jörn C. & Chappin, Émile J.L. & de Vries, Laurens J., 2015. "The market (in-)stability reserve for EU carbon emission trading: Why it might fail and how to improve it," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-18.
    4. Anne Schopp & William Acworth & Daniel Huppmann & Karsten Neuhoff, 2015. "Modelling a Market Stability Reserve in Carbon Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1483, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. William Acworth, 2014. "Can the Market Stability Reserve Stabilise the EU ETS: Commentators Hedge Their Bets," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 23, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Xiang-Yu Wang & Bao-Jun Tang, 2018. "Review of comparative studies on market mechanisms for carbon emission reduction: a bibliometric analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(3), pages 1141-1162, December.
    7. Fell, Harrison, 2016. "Comparing policies to confront permit over-allocation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 53-68.
    8. Huang, Wenyang & Zhao, Jianyu & Wang, Xiaokang, 2024. "Model-driven multimodal LSTM-CNN for unbiased structural forecasting of European Union allowances open-high-low-close price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    9. David M. Newbery & David M. Reiner & Robert A. Ritz, 2018. "When is a carbon price floor desirable?," Working Papers EPRG 1816, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    10. Rannou, Yves & Boutabba, Mohamed Amine & Barneto, Pascal, 2021. "Are Green Bond and Carbon Markets in Europe complements or substitutes? Insights from the activity of power firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    11. Pablo Pintos & Pedro Linares, 2016. "Assessing the EU ETS with an Integrated Model," Working Papers 01-2016, Economics for Energy.
    12. Chen, Dan & Yin, Jianan & Xu, Feng & Huang, Chen & Li, Ziyu, 2023. "A market-based framework for CO2 emissions reduction in China's civil aviation industry," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 150-158.
    13. Stefan Niederhafner, 2014. "The Korean Energy and GHG Target Management System: An Alternative to Kyoto-Protocol Emissions Trading Systems?," TEMEP Discussion Papers 2014118, Seoul National University; Technology Management, Economics, and Policy Program (TEMEP), revised Sep 2014.
    14. Johansson, Per-Olov, 2015. "Tradable Permits in Cost-Benefit Analysis," SSE Working Paper Series in Economics 2015:3, Stockholm School of Economics.
    15. Richard G. Newell & William A. Pizer & Daniel Raimi, 2014. "Carbon Markets: Past, Present, and Future," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 191-215, October.
    16. Bocklet, Johanna & Hintermayer, Martin & Schmidt, Lukas & Wildgrube, Theresa, 2019. "The Reformed EU ETS - Intertemporal Emission Trading with Restricted Banking," EWI Working Papers 2019-4, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    17. Wang, Feng & Liu, Xiying & Nguyen, Tue Anh, 2018. "Evaluating the economic impacts and feasibility of China's energy cap: Based on an Analytic General Equilibrium Model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 114-126.
    18. Karpf, Andreas & Mandel, Antoine & Battiston, Stefano, 2018. "Price and network dynamics in the European carbon market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 103-122.
    19. Holt, Charles A. & Shobe, William M., 2016. "Reprint of: Price and quantity collars for stabilizing emission allowance prices: Laboratory experiments on the EU ETS market stability reserve," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 69-86.
    20. repec:dau:papers:123456789/9263 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Piotr Niedzielski & Magdalena Zioło & Jarosław Kozuba & Ewa Kuzionko-Ochrymiuk & Natalia Drop, 2021. "Analysis of the Relationship of the Degree of Aviation Sector Development with Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Measures of Economic Development in the European Union Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-16, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:77:y:2015:i:c:p:152-163. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.