China׳s energy security and its challenges towards 2035

Within the last twenty years, China has become dependent on import of coal, oil and natural gas. Especially oil is now an economic and a security concern by the Chinese regime and key international stakeholders. Until 2035, China will account for one fourth of the global net growth in global gas consumption and more than half of the net growth in oil consumption. The future demand cannot be covered by China׳s own conventional and unconventional sources. Pipelines from neighboring countries can cover more than half of the needed import of natural gas by 2030, but only 10 percent of the import demand of oil is secured so far. Even if China attempts to address its insufficient supply of oil by increased investments in overseas oil fields, there is still a large gap. Furthermore, the oil import will largely come from politically unstable countries and regions, and the bulk of the supplies must be shipped through the potentially insecure Hormuz and Malacca Straits. The ongoing territorial disputes with neighboring countries regarding areas with gas and oil reserves in contested waters bear evidence to regional conflict potentials, and China appears to engage more actively in energy diplomacy and regional cooperation.