IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v64y2014icp58-70.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Oil and natural gas prospects in South America: Can the petroleum industry pave the way for renewables in Brazil?

Author

Listed:
  • Goldemberg, José
  • Schaeffer, Roberto
  • Szklo, Alexandre
  • Lucchesi, Rodrigo

Abstract

A large share of Brazil's current investments is concentrated in the development of petroleum resources in new frontiers. Perspectives for large offshore pre-salt fields are particularly good. However, challenges are also huge. On one hand, pre-salt resources development will draw vast amounts of economic and human resources and pose significant macroeconomic risks. On the other hand, the petroleum industry can generate multiplicative effects into the country's economy and, even more importantly, generate rents that can be diverted towards the promotion of renewable energy sources. This paper simulates the rent generation of Brazil's petroleum development up to 2030 according to: the country's current fiscal regime, projections of petroleum supply and a probability analysis of Brent price evolution, and assesses how these economic resources, if properly allocated, can pave the way for an increased use of renewables in Brazil. Findings show that an ambitious energy innovation program based on a target-oriented agency plus a program for solar development would cost less than half the minimum average annual petroleum rent free for investing in renewables between 2013 and 2030. The remaining budget could improve the security of ethanol fuel supply, by avoiding the negative impacts of sugar prices spikes on Brazil's ethanol production.

Suggested Citation

  • Goldemberg, José & Schaeffer, Roberto & Szklo, Alexandre & Lucchesi, Rodrigo, 2014. "Oil and natural gas prospects in South America: Can the petroleum industry pave the way for renewables in Brazil?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 58-70.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:64:y:2014:i:c:p:58-70
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.05.064
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513004163
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.05.064?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reynolds, Douglas B. & Baek, Jungho, 2012. "Much ado about Hotelling: Beware the ides of Hubbert," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 162-170.
    2. Cavalcanti, Marcelo & Szklo, Alexandre & Machado, Giovani, 2012. "Do ethanol prices in Brazil follow Brent price and international gasoline price parity?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 423-433.
    3. Erling Røed Larsen, 2004. "Escaping the Resource Curse and the Dutch Disease? When and Why Norway Caught up with and Forged ahead of Its Neighbors," Discussion Papers 377, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    4. Taylor, Margaret, 2008. "Beyond technology-push and demand-pull: Lessons from California's solar policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2829-2854, November.
    5. Viebahn, Peter & Lechon, Yolanda & Trieb, Franz, 2011. "The potential role of concentrated solar power (CSP) in Africa and Europe--A dynamic assessment of technology development, cost development and life cycle inventories until 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 4420-4430, August.
    6. Kareem Ismail, 2010. "The Structural Manifestation of the ‘Dutch Disease’: The Case of Oil Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/103, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Tokic, Damir, 2011. "Rational destabilizing speculation, positive feedback trading, and the oil bubble of 2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2051-2061, April.
    8. Farzin, Y. H., 2001. "The impact of oil price on additions to US proven reserves," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 271-292, July.
    9. Szklo, Alexandre Salem & Carneiro, Jason Thomas Guerreiro & Machado, Giovani, 2008. "Break-even price for upstream activities in Brazil: Evaluation of the opportunity cost of oil production delay in a non-mature sedimentary production region," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 589-600.
    10. Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2007. "Solving the oil independence problem: Is it possible?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5505-5514, November.
    11. Hart, Rob & Spiro, Daniel, 2011. "The elephant in Hotelling's room," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7834-7838.
    12. Kaufmann, Robert K., 2011. "The role of market fundamentals and speculation in recent price changes for crude oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 105-115, January.
    13. Hartwick, John M, 1977. "Intergenerational Equity and the Investing of Rents from Exhaustible Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 972-974, December.
    14. Silvério, Renan & Szklo, Alexandre, 2012. "The effect of the financial sector on the evolution of oil prices: Analysis of the contribution of the futures market to the price discovery process in the WTI spot market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1799-1808.
    15. Kemp, Alexander G. & Stephen, Linda, 1999. "Price, cost and exploration sensitivities of prospective activity levels in the UKCS: an application of the Monte Carlo technique," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(13), pages 801-810, November.
    16. Vivoda, Vlado, 2009. "Diversification of oil import sources and energy security: A key strategy or an elusive objective?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4615-4623, November.
    17. Malagueta, Diego & Szklo, Alexandre & Borba, Bruno Soares Moreira Cesar & Soria, Rafael & Aragão, Raymundo & Schaeffer, Roberto & Dutra, Ricardo, 2013. "Assessing incentive policies for integrating centralized solar power generation in the Brazilian electric power system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 198-212.
    18. Brandt, Adam R., 2010. "Review of mathematical models of future oil supply: Historical overview and synthesizing critique," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 3958-3974.
    19. Martins, Fernando Ramos & Pereira, Enio Bueno, 2011. "Enhancing information for solar and wind energy technology deployment in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4378-4390, July.
    20. Toto Same, Achille, 2008. "Mineral-rich countries and dutch disease : understanding the macroeconomic implications of windfalls and the development prospects-the case of Equatorial Guinea," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4595, The World Bank.
    21. Szklo, Alexandre & Machado, Giovani & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2007. "Future oil production in Brazil--Estimates based on a Hubbert model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2360-2367, April.
    22. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 137-137.
    23. Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G.M., 2010. "Long term prediction of unconventional oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 265-276, January.
    24. Soares M.C. Borba, Bruno & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2012. "Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles as a way to maximize the integration of variable renewable energy in power systems: The case of wind generation in northeastern Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 469-481.
    25. Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira, 2008. "The Dutch disease and its neutralization: a Ricardian approach," Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, Center of Political Economy, vol. 28(1), pages 47-71.
    26. Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2006. "Alternative energy sources or integrated alternative energy systems? Oil as a modern lance of Peleus for the energy transition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(14), pages 2513-2522.
    27. Martins, F.R. & Abreu, S.L. & Pereira, E.B., 2012. "Scenarios for solar thermal energy applications in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 640-649.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cai, Xiaomei & Liu, Chan & Zheng, Shuxian & Hu, Han & Tan, Zhanglu, 2023. "Analysis on the evolution characteristics of barite international trade pattern based on complex networks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. da Silva, Vinícius Oliveira & Relva, Stefania Gomes & Mondragon, Marcella & Mendes, André Bergsten & Nishimoto, Kazuo & Peyerl, Drielli, 2023. "Building Options for the Brazilian Pre-salt: A technical-economic and infrastructure analysis of offshore integration between energy generation and natural gas exploration," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    3. Werner, Deborah & Lazaro, Lira Luz Benites, 2023. "The policy dimension of energy transition: The Brazilian case in promoting renewable energies (2000–2022)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    4. Mendes, Pietro A.S. & Hall, Jeremy & Matos, Stelvia & Silvestre, Bruno, 2014. "Reforming Brazil׳s offshore oil and gas safety regulatory framework: Lessons from Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 443-453.
    5. Samuel Mathias do Amaral Junior & Janine Carvalho Padilha & Leonardo Arrieche, 2024. "Brazil’s New Gas Law: Analysis, Implications, and Remuneration of Gas Processing Plants with Non-Discriminatory Access to Customers," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(1), pages 559-569, January.
    6. Brito, Thiago Luis Felipe & Islam, Towhidul & Stettler, Marc & Mouette, Dominique & Meade, Nigel & Moutinho dos Santos, Edmilson, 2019. "Transitions between technological generations of alternative fuel vehicles in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    7. Fátima Lima & Joana Portugal‐Pereira & André F.P. Lucena & Pedro Rochedo & Jorge Cunha & Manuel Lopes Nunes & Alexandre Salem Szklo, 2015. "Analysis of energy security and sustainability in future low carbon scenarios for Brazil," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(3-4), pages 175-190, August.
    8. Yiming, Wang & Xun, Liu & Umair, Muhammad & Aizhan, Assilova, 2024. "COVID-19 and the transformation of emerging economies: Financialization, green bonds, and stock market volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    9. Herrera, Milton M. & Dyner, Isaac & Cosenz, Federico, 2019. "Assessing the effect of transmission constraints on wind power expansion in northeast Brazil," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-1.
    10. Draeger, Rebecca & Cunha, Bruno S.L. & Müller-Casseres, Eduardo & Rochedo, Pedro R.R. & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2022. "Stranded crude oil resources and just transition: Why do crude oil quality, climate ambitions and land-use emissions matter," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    11. Lenhard, L.G. & Andersen, S.M. & Coimbra-Araújo, C.H., 2018. "Energy-Environmental Implications Of Shale Gas Exploration In Paraná Hydrological Basin, Brazil," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 56-69.
    12. Postic, Sebastien & Selosse, Sandrine & Maïzi, Nadia, 2017. "Energy contribution to Latin American INDCs: Analyzing sub-regional trends with a TIMES model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 170-184.
    13. de Aguiar, Thereza R.S. & Freire, Fatima de Souza, 2017. "Shifts in modes of governance and sustainable development in the Brazilian oil sector," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 701-710.
    14. Aragão, Amanda & Giampietro, Mario, 2016. "An integrated multi-scale approach to assess the performance of energy systems illustrated with data from the Brazilian oil and natural gas sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P2), pages 1412-1423.
    15. Derick David Quintino & Heloisa Lee Burnquist & Paulo Jorge Silveira Ferreira, 2021. "Carbon Emissions and Brazilian Ethanol Prices: Are They Correlated? An Econophysics Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-18, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Malagueta, Diego & Szklo, Alexandre & Borba, Bruno Soares Moreira Cesar & Soria, Rafael & Aragão, Raymundo & Schaeffer, Roberto & Dutra, Ricardo, 2013. "Assessing incentive policies for integrating centralized solar power generation in the Brazilian electric power system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 198-212.
    2. Chavez-Rodriguez, Mauro F. & Szklo, Alexandre & de Lucena, Andre Frossard Pereira, 2015. "Analysis of past and future oil production in Peru under a Hubbert approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 140-151.
    3. Fichter, Tobias & Soria, Rafael & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto & Lucena, Andre F.P., 2017. "Assessing the potential role of concentrated solar power (CSP) for the northeast power system of Brazil using a detailed power system model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 695-715.
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2010. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey," Scholarly Articles 4454156, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    5. Jeffrey Frankel, 2012. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions," Growth Lab Working Papers 36, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    6. Spiro, Daniel, 2014. "Resource prices and planning horizons," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 159-175.
    7. Douglas B. Reynolds, 2024. "U.S. shale oil production and trend estimation: Forecasting a Hubbert model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 468-487, January.
    8. Frederick van der Ploeg & Anthony J. Venables, 2012. "Natural Resource Wealth: The Challenge of Managing a Windfall," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 315-337, July.
    9. Hart, Rob, 2016. "Non-renewable resources in the long run," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 1-20.
    10. Soria, Rafael & Lucena, André F.P. & Tomaschek, Jan & Fichter, Tobias & Haasz, Thomas & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto & Rochedo, Pedro & Fahl, Ulrich & Kern, Jürgen, 2016. "Modelling concentrated solar power (CSP) in the Brazilian energy system: A soft-linked model coupling approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 265-280.
    11. Malagueta, Diego & Szklo, Alexandre & Soria, Rafael & Dutra, Ricardo & Schaeffer, Roberto & Moreira Cesar Borba, Bruno Soares, 2014. "Potential and impacts of Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) integration in the Brazilian electric power system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 223-235.
    12. Seyhan, Demet & Weikard, Hans-Peter & van Ierland, Ekko, 2012. "An economic model of long-term phosphorus extraction and recycling," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 103-108.
    13. Silvério, Renan & Szklo, Alexandre, 2012. "The effect of the financial sector on the evolution of oil prices: Analysis of the contribution of the futures market to the price discovery process in the WTI spot market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1799-1808.
    14. Schilling, Markus & Chiang, Lichun, 2011. "The effect of natural resources on a sustainable development policy: The approach of non-sustainable externalities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 990-998, February.
    15. Hart, Rob & Spiro, Daniel, 2011. "The elephant in Hotelling's room," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7834-7838.
    16. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Davide Ciferri & Alessandro Girardi, 2014. "Time-Varying Spot and Futures Oil Price Dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(1), pages 78-97, February.
    17. Aune, Finn Roar & Mohn, Klaus & Osmundsen, Petter & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2010. "Financial market pressure, tacit collusion and oil price formation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 389-398, March.
    18. Manel Kamoun & Ines Abdelkafi & Abdelfetah Ghorbel, 2019. "The Impact of Renewable Energy on Sustainable Growth: Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 10(1), pages 221-237, March.
    19. Zhao, Zhen-Yu & Chen, Yu-Long & Thomson, John Douglas, 2017. "Levelized cost of energy modeling for concentrated solar power projects: A China study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 117-127.
    20. Manel Kamoun & Ines Abdelkafi & Abdelfetah Ghorbel, 2020. "Does Renewable Energy Technologies and Poverty Affect the Sustainable Growth in Emerging Countries?," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 11(3), pages 865-887, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:64:y:2014:i:c:p:58-70. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.