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Cost estimates for nuclear power in the UK

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  • Harris, Grant
  • Heptonstall, Phil
  • Gross, Robert
  • Handley, David

Abstract

Current UK Government support for nuclear power has in part been informed by cost estimates that suggest that electricity from new nuclear power stations will be competitive with alternative low carbon generation options. The evidence and analysis presented in this paper suggests that the capital cost estimates for nuclear power that are being used to inform these projections rely on costs escalating over the pre-construction and construction phase of the new build programme at a level significantly below those that have been experienced by past US and European programmes. This paper applies observed construction time and cost escalation rates to the published estimates of capital costs for new nuclear plant in the UK and calculates the potential impact on levelised cost per unit of electricity produced. The results suggest that levelised cost may turn out to be significantly higher than expected which in turn has important implications for policy, both in general terms of the potential costs to consumers and more specifically for negotiations around the level of policy support and contractual arrangements offered to individual projects through the proposed contract for difference strike price.

Suggested Citation

  • Harris, Grant & Heptonstall, Phil & Gross, Robert & Handley, David, 2013. "Cost estimates for nuclear power in the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 431-442.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:62:y:2013:i:c:p:431-442
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.116
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lucas W. Davis, 2012. "Prospects for Nuclear Power," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(1), pages 49-66, Winter.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    2. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2016. "Smart Energy Europe: The technical and economic impact of one potential 100% renewable energy scenario for the European Union," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1634-1653.
    3. Boccard, Nicolas, 2014. "The cost of nuclear electricity: France after Fukushima," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 450-461.
    4. Levi, Peter G. & Pollitt, Michael G., 2015. "Cost trajectories of low carbon electricity generation technologies in the UK: A study of cost uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 48-59.
    5. Locatelli, Giorgio & Mancini, Mauro & Lotti, Giovanni, 2020. "A simple-to-implement real options method for the energy sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    6. Onifade, Temitope Tunbi, 2016. "Hybrid renewable energy support policy in the power sector: The contracts for difference and capacity market case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 390-401.
    7. Phil Johnstone & Andy Stirling, 2015. "Comparing Nuclear Power Trajectories inGermany And the UK: From ‘Regimes’ to ‘Democracies’ in Sociotechnical Transitions and Discontinuities," SPRU Working Paper Series 2015-18, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    8. Lovering, Jessica R. & Yip, Arthur & Nordhaus, Ted, 2016. "Historical construction costs of global nuclear power reactors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 371-382.
    9. Siddons, Craig & Allan, Grant & McIntyre, Stuart, 2015. "How accurate are forecasts of costs of energy? A methodological contribution," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 224-228.
    10. Matsuo, Yuhji & Nei, Hisanori, 2019. "An analysis of the historical trends in nuclear power plant construction costs: The Japanese experience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 180-198.
    11. Schmeda-Lopez, Diego & McConnaughy, Thomas B. & McFarland, Eric W., 2018. "Radiation enhanced chemical production: Improving the value proposition of nuclear power," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 491-504.
    12. Haratyk, Geoffrey, 2017. "Early nuclear retirements in deregulated U.S. markets: Causes, implications and policy options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 150-166.
    13. Kan, Xiaoming & Hedenus, Fredrik & Reichenberg, Lina, 2020. "The cost of a future low-carbon electricity system without nuclear power – the case of Sweden," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    14. Wang, Linyuan & Zhao, Lin & Mao, Guozhu & Zuo, Jian & Du, Huibin, 2017. "Way to accomplish low carbon development transformation: A bibliometric analysis during 1995–2014," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 57-69.
    15. Xoubi, Ned, 2019. "Economic assessment of nuclear electricity from VVER-1000 reactor deployment in a developing country," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 14-22.

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    Keywords

    Nuclear; Cost; Electricity;
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