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Implications of the North Atlantic Oscillation for a UK–Norway Renewable power system

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  • Ely, Caroline R.
  • Brayshaw, David J.
  • Methven, John
  • Cox, James
  • Pearce, Oliver

Abstract

UK wind-power capacity is increasing and new transmission links are proposed with Norway, where hydropower dominates the electricity mix. Weather affects both these renewable resources and the demand for electricity. The dominant large-scale pattern of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric variability is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), associated with positive correlations in wind, temperature and precipitation over northern Europe. The NAO's effect on wind-power and demand in the UK and Norway is examined, focussing on March when Norwegian hydropower reserves are low and the combined power system might be most susceptible to atmospheric variations. The NCEP/NCAR meteorological reanalysis dataset (1948–2010) is used to drive simple models for demand and wind-power, and ‘demand-net-wind’ (DNW) is estimated for positive, neutral and negative NAO states. Cold, calm conditions in NAO− cause increased demand and decreased wind-power compared to other NAO states. Under a 2020 wind-power capacity scenario, the increase in DNW in NAO− relative to NAO neutral is equivalent to nearly 25% of the present-day average rate of March Norwegian hydropower usage. As the NAO varies on long timescales (months to decades), and there is potentially some skill in monthly predictions, we argue that it is important to understand its impact on European power systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Ely, Caroline R. & Brayshaw, David J. & Methven, John & Cox, James & Pearce, Oliver, 2013. "Implications of the North Atlantic Oscillation for a UK–Norway Renewable power system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1420-1427.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:62:y:2013:i:c:p:1420-1427
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.037
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sinden, Graham, 2007. "Characteristics of the UK wind resource: Long-term patterns and relationship to electricity demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 112-127, January.
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    Cited by:

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    6. Ringkjøb, Hans-Kristian & Haugan, Peter M. & Solbrekke, Ida Marie, 2018. "A review of modelling tools for energy and electricity systems with large shares of variable renewables," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 440-459.
    7. Bowen Li & Sukanta Basu & Simon J. Watson & Herman W. J. Russchenberg, 2021. "A Brief Climatology of Dunkelflaute Events over and Surrounding the North and Baltic Sea Areas," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-14, October.
    8. Cannon, D.J. & Brayshaw, D.J. & Methven, J. & Coker, P.J. & Lenaghan, D., 2015. "Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics: A 33 year case study in Great Britain," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 767-778.
    9. Coker, Phil J. & Bloomfield, Hannah C. & Drew, Daniel R. & Brayshaw, David J., 2020. "Interannual weather variability and the challenges for Great Britain’s electricity market design," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 509-522.

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