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Projecting EU demand for natural gas to 2030: A meta-analysis

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  • Smith, William J.

Abstract

Gas demand projections for the EU27 from a variety of sources are compared. Projected demand varies widely between sources, even when similar rates of economic growth and policy strength are assumed. The divergence is shown to result from differing assumptions concerning future energy intensity, on the one hand, and the future contribution of nuclear power and renewables (RES) to electricity generation on the other. The variation with time of some of these projections is also examined. It is found that the gas demand projected by both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the European Commission (EC) for 2020 and for 2030 has tended to decrease with each successive projection. This is understandable, since the penetration of RES-E has continued to exceed expectations. However, in an economically depressed, post-Fukushima Europe, estimates of future growth in both RES and nuclear generation may need significant revision. The Energy Efficiency Directive, as agreed by the Council of the European Union and the European Parliament in April 2012 (Council of the European Union, 2012), will also impact significantly on future gas demand, even though the measures incorporated are weaker than the original proposal. The analysis presented here shows that a “nuclear decline” due to the Fukushima disaster is seen to moderate, rather than reverse, projected demand decay. A significant shortfall in projected RES capacity, if it were to occur, constitutes a potential source of additional gas demand.

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  • Smith, William J., 2013. "Projecting EU demand for natural gas to 2030: A meta-analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 163-176.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:58:y:2013:i:c:p:163-176
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.02.045
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alagappan, L. & Orans, R. & Woo, C.K., 2011. "What drives renewable energy development?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5099-5104, September.
    2. FitzGerald, John, 2011. "A Review of Irish Energy Policy," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS21.
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    1. Bouwmeester, Maaike & Scholtens, Bert, 2014. "Cross-border spillovers from European gas infrastructure investment," Research Report 14028-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    2. Hall, Lisa M.H. & Buckley, Alastair R., 2016. "A review of energy systems models in the UK: Prevalent usage and categorisation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 607-628.
    3. Vincenzo Bianco, 2018. "The Future of the Italian Electricity Generation Sector. An Analysis of the Possible Strategic Models," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 12(3), pages 20-28.
    4. Bouwmeester, Maaike C. & Oosterhaven, J., 2017. "Economic impacts of natural gas flow disruptions between Russia and the EU," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 288-297.
    5. Gaigalis, Vygandas & Skema, Romualdas, 2014. "Sustainable economy development and transition of fuel and energy in Lithuania after integration into the European Union," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 719-733.
    6. Bouwmeester, Maaike C. & Scholtens, Bert, 2017. "Cross-border investment expenditure spillovers in European gas infrastructure," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 371-380.
    7. Gaigalis, Vygandas & Skema, Romualdas, 2015. "Analysis of the fuel and energy transition in Lithuanian industry and its sustainable development in 2005–2013 in compliance with the EU policy and strategy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 265-279.

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    Keywords

    Natural gas; Projection; Demand;
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