IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v52y2013icp45-54.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The structure of uncertainty in future low carbon pathways

Author

Listed:
  • Hughes, Nick
  • Strachan, Neil
  • Gross, Robert

Abstract

Low carbon scenario and transition pathway analysis involves the consideration of uncertainties around future technological and social changes. This paper argues that uncertainty can be better understood, and the strategic and policy effectiveness of scenarios or pathways thereby improved, through a systematic categorisation of the different kinds of certain and uncertain elements of which the future is comprised. To achieve this, this paper makes two novel methodological contributions. First it proposes a system conceptualisation which is based on a detailed description of the dynamics of the actors and institutions relevant to the system under study, iteratively linked to a detailed representation of the technological system. Second, it argues that as a result of developing this actor-based low carbon scenarios approach it is possible to characterise future elements of the system as either pre-determined, actor contingent or non-actor contingent. An outline scenario approach is presented, based on these two contributions. It emerges that the different categories of future element are associated with different types of uncertainty and each prompt different strategic policy responses. This categorisation of future elements therefore clarifies the relationship of scenario content to specific types of policy response, and thus improves the policy tractability of resulting scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Hughes, Nick & Strachan, Neil & Gross, Robert, 2013. "The structure of uncertainty in future low carbon pathways," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 45-54.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:52:y:2013:i:c:p:45-54
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.028
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142151200328X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.04.028?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robinson, John Bridger, 1982. "Energy backcasting A proposed method of policy analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 337-344, December.
    2. Foley, A.M. & Ó Gallachóir, B.P. & Hur, J. & Baldick, R. & McKeogh, E.J., 2010. "A strategic review of electricity systems models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 4522-4530.
    3. Gerber, Annelies & Qadrdan, Meysam & Chaudry, Modassar & Ekanayake, Janaka & Jenkins, Nick, 2012. "A 2020 GB transmission network study using dispersed wind farm power output," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 124-132.
    4. Johnston, D. & Lowe, R. & Bell, M., 2005. "An exploration of the technical feasibility of achieving CO2 emission reductions in excess of 60% within the UK housing stock by the year 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(13), pages 1643-1659, September.
    5. Geels, Frank W., 2002. "Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: a multi-level perspective and a case-study," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(8-9), pages 1257-1274, December.
    6. Strachan, Neil & Pye, Steve & Kannan, Ramachandran, 2009. "The iterative contribution and relevance of modelling to UK energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 850-860, March.
    7. Unruh, Gregory C., 2000. "Understanding carbon lock-in," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 817-830, October.
    8. Leslie Hannah, 1979. "Electricity before Nationalisation," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-03443-7, December.
    9. Hughes, Nick & Strachan, Neil, 2010. "Methodological review of UK and international low carbon scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6056-6065, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Koppelaar, Rembrandt H.E.M. & Keirstead, James & Shah, Nilay & Woods, Jeremy, 2016. "A review of policy analysis purpose and capabilities of electricity system models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1531-1544.
    2. Chaudry, Modassar & Abeysekera, Muditha & Hosseini, Seyed Hamid Reza & Jenkins, Nick & Wu, Jianzhong, 2015. "Uncertainties in decarbonising heat in the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 623-640.
    3. Bianka Shoai Tehrani & Pascal Da Costa & Danièle Attias, 2014. "Three Investment Scenarios for Future Nuclear Reactors in Europe," Working Papers hal-00997005, HAL.
    4. Paredes-Vergara, Matías & Palma-Behnke, Rodrigo & Haas, Jannik, 2024. "Characterizing decision making under deep uncertainty for model-based energy transitions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    5. Alderete Peralta, Ali & Balta-Ozkan, Nazmiye & Longhurst, Philip, 2022. "Spatio-temporal modelling of solar photovoltaic adoption: An integrated neural networks and agent-based modelling approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    6. Chicombo, Adélia Filosa Francisco & Musango, Josephine Kaviti, 2024. "Urban households energy transition pathways: A gendered perspective regarding Mozambique," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 190(PA).
    7. Sithole, H. & Cockerill, T.T. & Hughes, K.J. & Ingham, D.B. & Ma, L. & Porter, R.T.J. & Pourkashanian, M., 2016. "Developing an optimal electricity generation mix for the UK 2050 future," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 363-373.
    8. Wakiyama, Takako & Zusman, Eric & Monogan, James E., 2014. "Can a low-carbon-energy transition be sustained in post-Fukushima Japan? Assessing the varying impacts of exogenous shocks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 654-666.
    9. Franziska Flachsbarth & Marion Wingenbach & Matthias Koch, 2021. "Addressing the Effect of Social Acceptance on the Distribution of Wind Energy Plants and the Transmission Grid in Germany," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-18, August.
    10. Beirne, John & Morgan, Peter & Sonobe, Tetsushi (ed.), 2021. "COVID-19 Impacts and Policy Options: An Asian Perspective," ADBI Books, Asian Development Bank Institute, number 21, Décembre.
    11. Robertson, Elizabeth & O'Grady, Áine & Barton, John & Galloway, Stuart & Emmanuel-Yusuf, Damiete & Leach, Matthew & Hammond, Geoff & Thomson, Murray & Foxon, Tim, 2017. "Reconciling qualitative storylines and quantitative descriptions: An iterative approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 293-306.
    12. Barton, John & Davies, Lloyd & Dooley, Ben & Foxon, Timothy J. & Galloway, Stuart & Hammond, Geoffrey P. & O’Grady, Áine & Robertson, Elizabeth & Thomson, Murray, 2018. "Transition pathways for a UK low-carbon electricity system: Comparing scenarios and technology implications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2779-2790.
    13. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.
    14. Victor Caritte & Salvador Acha & Nilay Shah, 2015. "Enhancing Corporate Environmental Performance Through Reporting and Roadmaps," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 289-308, July.
    15. Li, Pei-Hao & Pye, Steve & Keppo, Ilkka, 2020. "Using clustering algorithms to characterise uncertain long-term decarbonisation pathways," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    16. Wang, Yadong & Wang, Delu & Shi, Xunpeng, 2023. "Sustainable development pathways of China's wind power industry under uncertainties: Perspective from economic benefits and technical potential," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    17. Kattirtzi, Michael & Winskel, Mark, 2020. "When experts disagree: Using the Policy Delphi method to analyse divergent expert expectations and preferences on UK energy futures," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    18. Alexandros Flamos, 2016. "A Sectoral Micro-Economic Approach to Scenario Selection and Development: The Case of the Greek Power Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-12, January.
    19. Laugs, Gideon A.H. & Moll, Henri C., 2017. "A review of the bandwidth and environmental discourses of future energy scenarios: Shades of green and gray," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 520-530.
    20. Ahl, A. & Yarime, M. & Goto, M. & Chopra, Shauhrat S. & Kumar, Nallapaneni Manoj. & Tanaka, K. & Sagawa, D., 2020. "Exploring blockchain for the energy transition: Opportunities and challenges based on a case study in Japan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    21. Bianka Shoai Tehrani & Pascal da Costa & Danièle Attias, 2016. "Three investment scenarios for future nuclear reactors in Europe," Post-Print hal-00997005, HAL.
    22. Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil & Dodds, Paul E. & Pudjianto, Danny & Strbac, Goran, 2015. "Synergies and trade-offs between governance and costs in electricity system transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 170-181.
    23. Stefan M. Buettner, 2022. "Roadmap to Neutrality—What Foundational Questions Need Answering to Determine One’s Ideal Decarbonisation Strategy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-24, April.
    24. Hoggett, Richard, 2014. "Technology scale and supply chains in a secure, affordable and low carbon energy transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 296-306.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.
    2. Mander, Sarah. L. & Bows, Alice & Anderson, Kevin. L. & Shackley, Simon & Agnolucci, Paolo & Ekins, Paul, 2008. "The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios--Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3754-3763, October.
    3. Foxon, Timothy J. & Pearson, Peter J.G. & Arapostathis, Stathis & Carlsson-Hyslop, Anna & Thornton, Judith, 2013. "Branching points for transition pathways: assessing responses of actors to challenges on pathways to a low carbon future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 146-158.
    4. Kattirtzi, Michael & Winskel, Mark, 2020. "When experts disagree: Using the Policy Delphi method to analyse divergent expert expectations and preferences on UK energy futures," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    5. Koppelaar, Rembrandt H.E.M. & Keirstead, James & Shah, Nilay & Woods, Jeremy, 2016. "A review of policy analysis purpose and capabilities of electricity system models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1531-1544.
    6. Taylor, Peter G. & Bolton, Ronan & Stone, Dave & Upham, Paul, 2013. "Developing pathways for energy storage in the UK using a coevolutionary framework," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 230-243.
    7. Bale, Catherine S.E. & Varga, Liz & Foxon, Timothy J., 2015. "Energy and complexity: New ways forward," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 150-159.
    8. Wegner, Marie-Sophie & Hall, Stephen & Hardy, Jeffrey & Workman, Mark, 2017. "Valuing energy futures; a comparative analysis of value pools across UK energy system scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 815-828.
    9. Francesco Lamperti & Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Alessandro Sapio, 2018. "And then he wasn't a she : Climate change and green transitions in an agent-based integrated assessment model," Working Papers hal-03443464, HAL.
    10. Bessi, Alessandro & Guidolin, Mariangela & Manfredi, Piero, 2021. "The role of gas on future perspectives of renewable energy diffusion: Bridging technology or lock-in?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    11. João Tovar Jalles, 2024. "Financial Crises and Climate Change," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 66(1), pages 166-190, March.
    12. Foxon, Timothy J., 2013. "Transition pathways for a UK low carbon electricity future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 10-24.
    13. Bianco, Vincenzo & Scarpa, Federico & Tagliafico, Luca A., 2015. "Long term outlook of primary energy consumption of the Italian thermoelectric sector: Impact of fuel and carbon prices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 153-164.
    14. Nill, Jan & Kemp, Ren, 2009. "Evolutionary approaches for sustainable innovation policies: From niche to paradigm?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 668-680, May.
    15. Geels, Frank W., 2012. "A socio-technical analysis of low-carbon transitions: introducing the multi-level perspective into transport studies," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 471-482.
    16. Kemp-Benedict, Eric, 2014. "Shifting to a Green Economy: Lock-in, Path Dependence, and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 60175, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Geels, Frank W. & Kemp, René, 2007. "Dynamics in socio-technical systems: Typology of change processes and contrasting case studies," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 441-455.
    18. Gürsan, C. & de Gooyert, V., 2021. "The systemic impact of a transition fuel: Does natural gas help or hinder the energy transition?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    19. João Tovar Jalles, 2020. "The impact of financial crises on the environment in developing countries," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 281-306, June.
    20. Kuokkanen, A. & Nurmi, A. & Mikkilä, M. & Kuisma, M. & Kahiluoto, H. & Linnanen, L., 2018. "Agency in regime destabilization through the selection environment: The Finnish food system’s sustainability transition," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(8), pages 1513-1522.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Scenarios; Uncertainty; Actors;
    All these keywords.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:52:y:2013:i:c:p:45-54. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.