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Environmental and economic effects of the Copenhagen pledges and more ambitious emission reduction targets

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  • Peterson, Everett B.
  • Schleich, Joachim
  • Duscha, Vicki

Abstract

A multi-region, multi-sector dynamic computable general equilibrium model is applied to explore the economic and welfare effects of the pledges submitted by developed countries (Annex I countries) and major developing (non-Annex I) countries for 2020 under the Copenhagen Accord. In addition to analyzing scenarios reflecting the upper and lower bounds of the Copenhagen Pledges, one additional policy scenario where Annex I countries as a group reduce CO2-emissions by 30% in 2020 compared to 1990 levels, and where major non-Annex I countries reduce CO2 emissions 15% below baseline, is also analyzed. Economic effects are measured as changes in GDP compared to baseline and welfare effects are measured via the equivalent variation. Assuming that countries with emission targets may trade certificates, average reductions in GDP for countries with targets range between 0.1% and 0.7% in 2020 for the policy scenarios. While the GDP losses are larger for major non-Annex I countries with emission targets compared to Annex I countries, this is not the case for the changes in welfare. With the exception of Mexico, the welfare losses for the major non-Annex I regions, as a percentage of projected GDP in 2020, are lower than for the large Annex I countries.

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  • Peterson, Everett B. & Schleich, Joachim & Duscha, Vicki, 2011. "Environmental and economic effects of the Copenhagen pledges and more ambitious emission reduction targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3697-3708, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:6:p:3697-3708
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    Cited by:

    1. Frank Jotzo, 2010. "Comparing the Copenhagen Emissions Targets," CCEP Working Papers 0110, Centre for Climate & Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Standardi, Gabriele & Cai, Yiyong & Yeh, Sonia, 2017. "Sensitivity of modeling results to technological and regional details: The case of Italy's carbon mitigation policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 116-128.
    3. Bosello, Francesco & Davide, Marinella & Alloisio, Isabella, 2016. "Economic Implications of EU Mitigation Policies: Domestic and International Effects," EIA: Climate Change: Economic Impacts and Adaptation 234938, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    4. Delpiazzo, Elisa & Parrado, Ramiro & Standardi, Gabriele, 2017. "Extending the Public Sector in the ICES Model with an Explicit Government Institution," EIA: Climate Change: Economic Impacts and Adaptation 254041, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    5. Peterson, Everett B. & Schleich, Joachim & Duscha, Vicki, 2012. "Sectoral Targets as a Means to Reduce Global Carbon Emissions," Conference papers 332200, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Wada, Kenichi & Sano, Fuminori & Akimoto, Keigo & Homma, Takashi, 2012. "Assessment of Copenhagen pledges with long-term implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 481-486.
    7. Larch, Mario & Wanner, Joschka, 2017. "Carbon tariffs: An analysis of the trade, welfare, and emission effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 195-213.
    8. Vicki Duscha & Katja Schumacher & Joachim Schleich & Pierre Buisson, 2014. "Costs of meeting international climate targets without nuclear power," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 327-352, May.
    9. Bosello, Francesco & Campagnolo, Lorenza & Carraro, Carlo & Eboli, Fabio & Parrado, Ramiro & Portale, Elisa, 2013. "Macroeconomic Impacts of the EU 30% GHG Mitigation Target," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 148914, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    10. Fragkos, Panagiotis & Tasios, Nikos & Paroussos, Leonidas & Capros, Pantelis & Tsani, Stella, 2017. "Energy system impacts and policy implications of the European Intended Nationally Determined Contribution and low-carbon pathway to 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 216-226.
    11. Leisa Perch, 2010. "Maximizing Co-Benefits: Exploring Opportunities to Strengthen Equality and Poverty Reduction through Adaptation to Climate Change," Working Papers 75, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    12. Mendoza Beltran, Angelica & den Elzen, Michel G.J. & Hof, Andries F. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & van Vliet, Jasper, 2011. "Exploring the bargaining space within international climate negotiations based on political, economic and environmental considerations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7361-7371.
    13. Lim, Jaekyu, 2011. "Impacts and implications of implementing voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction targets in major countries and Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5086-5095, September.
    14. A. F. Hof & M. G. J. Elzen & A. Mendoza Beltran, 2016. "The EU 40 % greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2030 in perspective," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 375-392, June.
    15. Olivia Ricci & Sandrine Selosse, 2013. "A cost analysis of the Copenhagen emission reduction pledges," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 764-771.
    16. John Byrne & Lado Kurdgelashvili & Job Taminiau, 2012. "Social change to avert further climate change: defining the scale of change and principles to guide a new strategy," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 17-40, July.
    17. Solveig Glomsrød & Taoyuan Wei & Knut Alfsen, 2013. "Pledges for climate mitigation: the effects of the Copenhagen accord on CO 2 emissions and mitigation costs," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(5), pages 619-636, June.

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