IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/wireae/v1y2012i1p17-40.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Social change to avert further climate change: defining the scale of change and principles to guide a new strategy

Author

Listed:
  • John Byrne
  • Lado Kurdgelashvili
  • Job Taminiau

Abstract

The inability of the international community so far to materially affect the trend in anthropogenic emissions demonstrates the urgent need to formulate an effective response to the threat of climate change. We offer a detailed picture—disaggregated by country—of the social changes necessary to reduce the rate and risk of climate change. We recognize two broad types of social change—changes that either reduce energy intensity or reduce carbon intensity. Through the Kaya identity, we demonstrate that the current business as usual scenario expects a carbon concentration of approximately 660 ppm by 2100, which corresponds to a potentially catastrophic 4.9°C temperature increase. Through a low‐carbon‐emissions scenario built on principles used by the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy over the past 20 years, we show the social changes required to realize a hopefully sustainable 450 ppm carbon dioxide concentration with an equitable 3.3 ton/capita annual carbon emissions budget. We conclude that all members of the international community—even Non‐Annex 1 members—face major and immediate challenges in any common effort to address climate change. Our analysis supports exploratory efforts for the formulation of menus of social change. As a preliminary basis for identifying such menus of social change, we suggest priority be given to bottom‐up discourses that position the principles of sustainability, equity, development autonomy, and justice at the core of decision‐making. This article is categorized under: Energy and Climate > Economics and Policy

Suggested Citation

  • John Byrne & Lado Kurdgelashvili & Job Taminiau, 2012. "Social change to avert further climate change: defining the scale of change and principles to guide a new strategy," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 17-40, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:wireae:v:1:y:2012:i:1:p:17-40
    DOI: 10.1002/wene.32
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/wene.32
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/wene.32?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stern,Nicholas, 2007. "The Economics of Climate Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521700801.
    2. Jonatan Pinkse & Ans Kolk, 2012. "Multinational enterprises and climate change: Exploring institutional failures and embeddedness," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 43(3), pages 332-341, April.
    3. Byrne, John & Wang, Young-Doo & Lee, Hoesung & Kim, Jong-dall, 1998. "An equity- and sustainability-based policy response to global climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 335-343, March.
    4. Bertram, Christine, 2010. "Ocean iron fertilization in the context of the Kyoto protocol and the post-Kyoto process," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 1130-1139, February.
    5. Michael Grubb, Carlo Carraro and John Schellnhuber, 2006. "Technological Change for Atmospheric Stabilization: Introductory Overview to the Innovation Modeling Comparison Project," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 1-16.
    6. Joeri Rogelj & Julia Nabel & Claudine Chen & William Hare & Kathleen Markmann & Malte Meinshausen & Michiel Schaeffer & Kirsten Macey & Niklas Höhne, 2010. "Copenhagen Accord pledges are paltry," Nature, Nature, vol. 464(7292), pages 1126-1128, April.
    7. Byrne, John & Hughes, Kristen & Rickerson, Wilson & Kurdgelashvili, Lado, 2007. "American policy conflict in the greenhouse: Divergent trends in federal, regional, state, and local green energy and climate change policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 4555-4573, September.
    8. Peterson, Everett B. & Schleich, Joachim & Duscha, Vicki, 2011. "Environmental and economic effects of the Copenhagen pledges and more ambitious emission reduction targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3697-3708, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John A. “Skip” Laitner, 2015. "Linking energy efficiency to economic productivity: recommendations for improving the robustness of the U.S. economy," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 235-252, May.
    2. Joseph Nyangon & John Byrne, 2023. "Estimating the impacts of natural gas power generation growth on solar electricity development: PJM's evolving resource mix and ramping capability," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), January.
    3. John Byrne & Job Taminiau, 2016. "A review of sustainable energy utility and energy service utility concepts and applications: realizing ecological and social sustainability with a community utility," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 136-154, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nordhaus, William, 2013. "Integrated Economic and Climate Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1069-1131, Elsevier.
    2. Vicki Duscha & Katja Schumacher & Joachim Schleich & Pierre Buisson, 2014. "Costs of meeting international climate targets without nuclear power," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 327-352, May.
    3. Mendoza Beltran, Angelica & den Elzen, Michel G.J. & Hof, Andries F. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & van Vliet, Jasper, 2011. "Exploring the bargaining space within international climate negotiations based on political, economic and environmental considerations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7361-7371.
    4. Michael Grubb & Jean-Francois Mercure & Pablo Salas & Rutger-Jan Lange & Ida Sognnaes, 2018. "Systems Innovation, Inertia and Pliability: A mathematical exploration with implications for climate change abatement," Working Papers EPRG 1808, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    5. Peterson, Everett B. & Schleich, Joachim & Duscha, Vicki, 2011. "Environmental and economic effects of the Copenhagen pledges and more ambitious emission reduction targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3697-3708, June.
    6. Wada, Kenichi & Sano, Fuminori & Akimoto, Keigo & Homma, Takashi, 2012. "Assessment of Copenhagen pledges with long-term implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages 481-486.
    7. Undp, 2011. "HDR 2011 - Sustainability and Equity: A Better Future for All," Human Development Report (1990 to present), Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), number hdr2011, September.
    8. Lim, Jaekyu, 2011. "Impacts and implications of implementing voluntary greenhouse gas emission reduction targets in major countries and Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5086-5095, September.
    9. Solveig Glomsrød & Taoyuan Wei & Knut Alfsen, 2013. "Pledges for climate mitigation: the effects of the Copenhagen accord on CO 2 emissions and mitigation costs," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(5), pages 619-636, June.
    10. Richard S. J. Tol, 2007. "Climate Policy Versus Development Aid," Papers WP221, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    11. George A. Gonzalez, 2016. "Transforming Energy: Solving Climate Change with Technology Policy . New York : Cambridge University Press . 360 pages. ISBN 9781107614970, $29.99 paperback. Anthony Patt , 2015 ," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 33(1), pages 111-113, January.
    12. Kiridaran Kanagaretnam & Gerald Lobo & Lei Zhang, 2022. "Relationship Between Climate Risk and Physical and Organizational Capital," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 245-283, April.
    13. A. F. Hof & M. G. J. Elzen & A. Mendoza Beltran, 2016. "The EU 40 % greenhouse gas emission reduction target by 2030 in perspective," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 375-392, June.
    14. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2008. "A Proposal for a New Prescriptive Discounting Scheme: The Intergenerational Discount Rate," Working Papers 2008.47, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    15. van den Bergh, J.C.J.M. & Botzen, W.J.W., 2015. "Monetary valuation of the social cost of CO2 emissions: A critical survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 33-46.
    16. Strand, Jon, 2011. "Carbon offsets with endogenous environmental policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 371-378, March.
    17. Stern, Nicholas, 2018. "Public economics as if time matters: Climate change and the dynamics of policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 4-17.
    18. Lotze-Campen, Hermann & von Witzke, Harald & Noleppa, Steffen & Schwarz, Gerald, 2015. "Science for food, climate protection and welfare: An economic analysis of plant breeding research in Germany," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 79-84.
    19. Pycroft, Jonathan & Vergano, Lucia & Hope, Chris & Paci, Daniele & Ciscar, Juan Carlos, 2011. "A tale of tails: Uncertainty and the social cost of carbon dioxide," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 5, pages 1-29.
    20. Oliver Schenker, 2013. "Exchanging Goods and Damages: The Role of Trade on the Distribution of Climate Change Costs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(2), pages 261-282, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:wireae:v:1:y:2012:i:1:p:17-40. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=2041-8396 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.