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Evaluating replacement project of nuclear power plants under uncertainty

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  • Naito, Yuta
  • Takashima, Ryuta
  • Kimura, Hiroshi
  • Madarame, Haruki

Abstract

This paper investigates the valuation of a replacement project of nuclear power plants under the deregulated electricity market. The replacement project consists of two components: the decision to decommission an existing plant and the decision to construct a new plant. In the replacement project, the decommissioning decision should be made considering not only the profitability of the existing plant but also the profitability and costs of the construction of the new plant. Real options theory is used to determine the optimal timing of the decommissioning and construction. In order to examine the effect of decommissioning time and decision making one, we consider a time-lag for these decision making times. We show the dependence of the replacement project value on uncertainty and time-lag.

Suggested Citation

  • Naito, Yuta & Takashima, Ryuta & Kimura, Hiroshi & Madarame, Haruki, 2010. "Evaluating replacement project of nuclear power plants under uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1321-1329, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:3:p:1321-1329
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tian, Lixin & Pan, Jianglai & Du, Ruijin & Li, Wenchao & Zhen, Zaili & Qibing, Gao, 2017. "The valuation of photovoltaic power generation under carbon market linkage based on real options," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 354-362.
    2. Felipe Isaza Cuervo & Sergio Botero Boterob, 2014. "Aplicación de las opciones reales en la toma de decisiones en los mercados de electricidad," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, November.
    3. Jain, Shashi & Roelofs, Ferry & Oosterlee, Cornelis W., 2014. "Decision-support tool for assessing future nuclear reactor generation portfolios," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 99-112.
    4. Guo, Jian-Xin & Zhu, Kaiwei, 2021. "Implications for enterprise to adopt cleaner technology: From the perspective of energy market and commodity market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

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    Keywords

    Replacement Time lag Real options;

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