IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v189y2024ics0301421524001538.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling residential photovoltaic adoption: A system dynamics approach for solar energy expansion

Author

Listed:
  • Chayjan, Melika Rezaei
  • Dehghanian, Farzad
  • Kakhki, Mohammad Daneshvar

Abstract

Using a system dynamics approach and the Generalized Bass model, we model the diffusion of Photovoltaic System (PVS) adoption among Iranian households. The model recreates the interplay between economic, social capital, managerial, political, and technical factors influencing PVS adoption. While existing literature indicates that technology diffusion typically follows an S-shaped growth pattern, this is not true in Iran. Our research reveals that the deviation can be attributed to the low estimated values of innovation and imitation coefficients. Our study emphasizes the positive impact of factors such as society's awareness and interest, environmental concerns, and government-provided incentives while highlighting the negative influence of factors like inflation and increased payback periods on PVS adoption. This study provides insights for practitioners and policymakers to develop effective strategies for PVS adoption, fostering a sustainable energy future in Iran and other emerging nations.

Suggested Citation

  • Chayjan, Melika Rezaei & Dehghanian, Farzad & Kakhki, Mohammad Daneshvar, 2024. "Modeling residential photovoltaic adoption: A system dynamics approach for solar energy expansion," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:189:y:2024:i:c:s0301421524001538
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114133
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421524001538
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114133?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jager, Wander, 2006. "Stimulating the diffusion of photovoltaic systems: A behavioural perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(14), pages 1935-1943, September.
    2. Mittal, Anuj & Krejci, Caroline C. & Dorneich, Michael C., 2019. "An agent-based approach to designing residential renewable energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1008-1020.
    3. Bashiri, Ali & Alizadeh, Sasan H., 2018. "The analysis of demographics, environmental and knowledge factors affecting prospective residential PV system adoption: A study in Tehran," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 3131-3139.
    4. Movilla, Santiago & Miguel, Luis J. & Blázquez, L. Felipe, 2013. "A system dynamics approach for the photovoltaic energy market in Spain¤," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 142-154.
    5. McEachern, Menzie & Hanson, Susan, 2008. "Socio-geographic perception in the diffusion of innovation: Solar energy technology in Sri Lanka," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2578-2590, July.
    6. Palmer, J. & Sorda, G. & Madlener, R., 2015. "Modeling the diffusion of residential photovoltaic systems in Italy: An agent-based simulation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 106-131.
    7. Heiskanen, Eva & Matschoss, Kaisa, 2017. "Understanding the uneven diffusion of building-scale renewable energy systems: A review of household, local and country level factors in diverse European countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 580-591.
    8. Sergei Sidorov & Alexey Faizliev & Vladimir Balash & Olga Balash & Maria Krylova & Aleksandr Fomenko, 2021. "Extended innovation diffusion models and their empirical performance on real propagation data," Journal of Marketing Analytics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(2), pages 99-110, June.
    9. Labay, Duncan G & Kinnear, Thomas C, 1981. "Exploring the Consumer Decision Process in the Adoption of Solar Energy Systems," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 8(3), pages 271-278, December.
    10. Sujeetha Selvakkumaran & Erik O. Ahlgren, 2018. "Model-Based Exploration of Co-Creation Efforts: The Case of Solar Photovoltaics (PV) in Skåne, Sweden," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-23, October.
    11. Sam Wilkinson & Michele John & Gregory M. Morrison, 2021. "Rooftop PV and the Renewable Energy Transition; a Review of Driving Forces and Analytical Frameworks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-25, May.
    12. Anita M. Bunea & Mariangela Guidolin & Piero Manfredi & Pompeo Della Posta, 2022. "Diffusion of Solar PV Energy in the UK: A Comparison of Sectoral Patterns," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-21, April.
    13. Ramshani, Mohammad & Li, Xueping & Khojandi, Anahita & Omitaomu, Olufemi, 2020. "An agent-based approach to study the diffusion rate and the effect of policies on joint placement of photovoltaic panels and green roof under climate change uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    14. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2006. "Modelling and forecasting the diffusion of innovation - A 25-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 519-545.
    15. Giacomo Zanello & Xiaolan Fu & Pierre Mohnen & Marc Ventresca, 2016. "The Creation And Diffusion Of Innovation In Developing Countries: A Systematic Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5), pages 884-912, December.
    16. Jimenez, Maritza & Franco, Carlos J. & Dyner, Isaac, 2016. "Diffusion of renewable energy technologies: The need for policy in Colombia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 818-829.
    17. Asante, Dennis & He, Zheng & Mintah Ampaw, Enock & Gyamerah, Samuel & Ankrah Twumasi, Martinson & Opoku-Mensah, Evans & Kyere, Francis & Asante, Bismark & Afia Akyia, Ellen, 2021. "Renewable energy technology transition among small-and-medium scale firms in Ghana," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 549-559.
    18. Baur, Lucia & Uriona M., Mauricio, 2018. "Diffusion of photovoltaic technology in Germany: A sustainable success or an illusion driven by guaranteed feed-in tariffs?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 289-298.
    19. Najafi, G. & Ghobadian, B. & Mamat, R. & Yusaf, T. & Azmi, W.H., 2015. "Solar energy in Iran: Current state and outlook," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 931-942.
    20. Dhirasasna, NiNa & Sahin, Oz, 2021. "A system dynamics model for renewable energy technology adoption of the hotel sector," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1994-2007.
    21. Franceschinis, Cristiano & Thiene, Mara & Scarpa, Riccardo & Rose, John & Moretto, Michele & Cavalli, Raffaele, 2017. "Adoption of renewable heating systems: An empirical test of the diffusion of innovation theory," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 313-326.
    22. Alipour, M. & Irannezhad, Elnaz & Stewart, Rodney A. & Sahin, Oz, 2022. "Exploring residential solar PV and battery energy storage adoption motivations and barriers in a mature PV market," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 684-698.
    23. Shen, Guofeng & Lin, Weiwei & Chen, Yuanchen & Yue, Dingli & Liu, Zuoli & Yang, Chunli, 2015. "Factors influencing the adoption and sustainable use of clean fuels and cookstoves in China -a Chinese literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 741-750.
    24. Yamaguchi, Yohei & Akai, Kenju & Shen, Junyi & Fujimura, Naoki & Shimoda, Yoshiyuki & Saijo, Tatsuyoshi, 2013. "Prediction of photovoltaic and solar water heater diffusion and evaluation of promotion policies on the basis of consumers’ choices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1148-1159.
    25. dos Santos, L.L.C. & Canha, L.N. & Bernardon, D.P., 2018. "Projection of the diffusion of photovoltaic systems in residential low voltage consumers," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(PA), pages 384-401.
    26. Palm, Alvar & Lantz, Björn, 2020. "Information dissemination and residential solar PV adoption rates: The effect of an information campaign in Sweden," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Felipe Moraes do Nascimento & Julio Cezar Mairesse Siluk & Fernando de Souza Savian & Taís Bisognin Garlet & José Renes Pinheiro & Carlos Ramos, 2020. "Factors for Measuring Photovoltaic Adoption from the Perspective of Operators," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-29, April.
    2. Alipour, M. & Salim, H. & Stewart, Rodney A. & Sahin, Oz, 2020. "Predictors, taxonomy of predictors, and correlations of predictors with the decision behaviour of residential solar photovoltaics adoption: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    3. Montoya-Duque, Laura & Arango-Aramburo, Santiago & Arias-Gaviria, Jessica, 2022. "Simulating the effect of the Pay-as-you-go scheme for solar energy diffusion in Colombian off-grid regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PB).
    4. Khuong, Phuong M. & Scheller, Fabian & McKenna, Russell & Keles, Dogan & Fichtner, Wolf, 2020. "Willingness to pay for residential PV: Reconciling gaps between acceptance and adoption," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 46, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).
    5. Nurwidiana Nurwidiana & Bertha Maya Sopha & Adhika Widyaparaga, 2022. "Simulating Socio-Technical Transitions of Photovoltaics Using Empirically Based Hybrid Simulation-Optimization Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-25, April.
    6. Dhirasasna, NiNa & Sahin, Oz, 2021. "A system dynamics model for renewable energy technology adoption of the hotel sector," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1994-2007.
    7. Fabian Scheller & Isabel Doser & Daniel Sloot & Russell McKenna & Thomas Bruckner, 2020. "Exploring the Role of Stakeholder Dynamics in Residential Photovoltaic Adoption Decisions: A Synthesis of the Literature," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-31, November.
    8. Williams, Eric & Carvalho, Rexon & Hittinger, Eric & Ronnenberg, Matthew, 2020. "Empirical development of parsimonious model for international diffusion of residential solar," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 570-577.
    9. Bunea, Anita M. & Della Posta, Pompeo & Guidolin, Mariangela & Manfredi, Piero, 2020. "What do adoption patterns of solar panels observed so far tell about governments’ incentive? Insights from diffusion models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    10. van Blommestein, Kevin & Daim, Tugrul U. & Cho, Yonghee & Sklar, Paul, 2018. "Structuring financial incentives for residential solar electric systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 28-40.
    11. Ryszard Kata & Kazimierz Cyran & Sławomir Dybka & Małgorzata Lechwar & Rafał Pitera, 2021. "Economic and Social Aspects of Using Energy from PV and Solar Installations in Farmers’ Households in the Podkarpackie Region," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-21, May.
    12. Islam, Towhidul, 2014. "Household level innovation diffusion model of photo-voltaic (PV) solar cells from stated preference data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 340-350.
    13. José Ángel Gimeno & Eva Llera & Sabina Scarpellini, 2018. "Investment Determinants in Self-Consumption Facilities: Characterization and Qualitative Analysis in Spain," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-24, August.
    14. Meles, Tensay Hadush & Ryan, Lisa, 2022. "Adoption of renewable home heating systems: An agent-based model of heat pumps in Ireland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    15. Houda Elmustapha & Thomas Hoppe & Hans Bressers, 2018. "Understanding Stakeholders’ Views and the Influence of the Socio-Cultural Dimension on the Adoption of Solar Energy Technology in Lebanon," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-17, January.
    16. Palmer, J. & Sorda, G. & Madlener, R., 2015. "Modeling the diffusion of residential photovoltaic systems in Italy: An agent-based simulation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 106-131.
    17. Liu, Xueying & Madlener, Reinhard, 2019. "Get Ready for Take-Off: A Two-Stage Model of Aircraft Market Diffusion," FCN Working Papers 15/2019, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    18. Monica Castaneda & Sebastian Zapata & Andres Aristizabal, 2018. "Assessing the Effect of Incentive Policies on Residential PV Investments in Colombia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-17, October.
    19. dos Santos, L.L.C. & Canha, L.N. & Bernardon, D.P., 2018. "Projection of the diffusion of photovoltaic systems in residential low voltage consumers," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(PA), pages 384-401.
    20. Moncada, J.A. & Tao, Z. & Valkering, P. & Meinke-Hubeny, F. & Delarue, E., 2021. "Influence of distribution tariff structures and peer effects on the adoption of distributed energy resources," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:189:y:2024:i:c:s0301421524001538. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.