IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v184y2024ics0301421523004445.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What future for marine renewable energy in Portugal and Spain up to 2030? Forecasting plausible scenarios using general morphological analysis and clustering techniques

Author

Listed:
  • Vieira, Mário
  • Macedo, Ana
  • Alvarenga, António
  • Lafoz, Marcos
  • Villalba, Isabel
  • Blanco, Marcos
  • Rojas, Rodrigo
  • Romero-Filgueira, Alejandro
  • García-Mendoza, Adriana
  • Santos-Herran, Miguel
  • Alves, Marco

Abstract

Marine renewables – which include mainly wave, tidal and current energy – have been hailed, for the past decades, as a potential solution to support the decarbonization of the society. Portugal and Spain have been traditionally avid for the testing and demonstration of such technologies, but the implementation of marine capacity is yet marginal, and there are many uncertainties regarding the future of the sector in the region. The main objective of this article is to show a future projection of marine renewable energies in both Iberian and Macaronesian regions for 2030 to research and technological development communities. To obtain this future projection, General Morphological Analysis and advanced clustering techniques have been used. The results are divided into five groups of potential scenarios, which vary significantly due to different political, social and technological parameters. The influence of variables such as innovation speed, infrastructure implementation, and comprehensive metocean data availability emerges as pivotal determinants shaping the sector's course. The knowledge from this systematization is expected to be used by researchers, technicians, governments or by any other agency involved in marine renewable energies in Spain and Portugal, as a guidance for their new projects and research lines.

Suggested Citation

  • Vieira, Mário & Macedo, Ana & Alvarenga, António & Lafoz, Marcos & Villalba, Isabel & Blanco, Marcos & Rojas, Rodrigo & Romero-Filgueira, Alejandro & García-Mendoza, Adriana & Santos-Herran, Miguel & , 2024. "What future for marine renewable energy in Portugal and Spain up to 2030? Forecasting plausible scenarios using general morphological analysis and clustering techniques," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:184:y:2024:i:c:s0301421523004445
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113859
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421523004445
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113859?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. ., 2023. "European trends in referendum authorization," Chapters, in: Referendum Authorization Procedures in Europe, chapter 2, pages 26-53, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Maëva Labouyrie & Cristiano Ballabio & Ferran Romero & Panos Panagos & Arwyn Jones & Marc W. Schmid & Vladimir Mikryukov & Olesya Dulya & Leho Tedersoo & Mohammad Bahram & Emanuele Lugato & Marcel G. , 2023. "Patterns in soil microbial diversity across Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-21, December.
    3. ., 2023. "Copy Europe or Go it Alone?," Chapters, in: The Footballization of China, chapter 4, pages 85-109, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Amorim-Lopes, Mário & Oliveira, Mónica & Raposo, Mariana & Cardoso-Grilo, Teresa & Alvarenga, António & Barbas, Marta & Alves, Marco & Vieira, Ana & Barbosa-Póvoa, Ana, 2021. "Enhancing optimization planning models for health human resources management with foresight," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    5. Piotr Sulewski & Wiktor Ignaciuk & Magdalena Szymańska & Adam Wąs, 2023. "Development of the Biomethane Market in Europe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-34, February.
    6. Reichardt, Kristin & Negro, Simona O. & Rogge, Karoline S. & Hekkert, Marko P., 2016. "Analyzing interdependencies between policy mixes and technological innovation systems: The case of offshore wind in Germany," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 11-21.
    7. Lígia M. Costa Pinto & Sara Sousa & Marieta Valente, 2021. "Explaining the Social Acceptance of Renewables through Location-Related Factors: An Application to the Portuguese Case," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(2), pages 1-13, January.
    8. Maria Apolonia & Rhoda Fofack-Garcia & Donald R. Noble & Jonathan Hodges & Francisco X. Correia da Fonseca, 2021. "Legal and Political Barriers and Enablers to the Deployment of Marine Renewable Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-24, August.
    9. Jacobsson, Staffan & Karltorp, Kersti, 2013. "Mechanisms blocking the dynamics of the European offshore wind energy innovation system – Challenges for policy intervention," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1182-1195.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Varga, György & Gresina, Fruzsina & Szeberényi, József & Gelencsér, András & Rostási, Ágnes, 2024. "Effect of Saharan dust episodes on the accuracy of photovoltaic energy production forecast in Hungary (Central Europe)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    2. Jakub Sawulski & Marcin Galczynski & Robert Zajdler, 2018. "A review of the offshore wind innovation system in Poland," IBS Working Papers 06/2018, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    3. Reichardt, Kristin & Rogge, Karoline S. & Negro, Simona O., 2017. "Unpacking policy processes for addressing systemic problems in technological innovation systems: The case of offshore wind in Germany," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1217-1226.
    4. Henderson, Dylan & Roche, Neil, 2018. "From consensus to conflict in the regional policy mix for broadband deployment: examining the role of informal coordination," 29th European Regional ITS Conference, Trento 2018 184944, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
    5. Eleftheriadis, Iordanis M. & Anagnostopoulou, Evgenia G., 2015. "Identifying barriers in the diffusion of renewable energy sources," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 153-164.
    6. Frank, Alejandro Germán & Gerstlberger, Wolfgang & Paslauski, Carolline Amaral & Lerman, Laura Visintainer & Ayala, Néstor Fabián, 2018. "The contribution of innovation policy criteria to the development of local renewable energy systems," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 353-365.
    7. Kim, Yeong Jae & Wilson, Charlie, 2019. "Analysing energy innovation portfolios from a systemic perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    8. Goraj, Rafał & Kiciński, Marcin & Ślefarski, Rafał & Duczkowska, Anna, 2023. "Validity of decision criteria for selecting power-to-gas projects in Poland," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    9. Kriechbaum, Michael & Posch, Alfred & Hauswiesner, Angelika, 2021. "Hype cycles during socio-technical transitions: The dynamics of collective expectations about renewable energy in Germany," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(9).
    10. Holmes, Torik, 2024. "We need more network capacity! But why do we get it? Infrastructural refraction and the contingencies of network growth and energy transitions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    11. Carrelhas, A.A.D. & Gato, L.M.C. & Morais, F.J.F., 2024. "Aerodynamic performance and noise emission of different geometries of Wells turbines under design and off-design conditions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    12. Stefan Ćetković & Aron Buzogány & Miranda Schreurs, 2016. "Varieties of clean energy transitions in Europe: Political-economic foundations of onshore and offshore wind development," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-18, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Wieczorek, Anna J. & Negro, Simona O. & Harmsen, Robert & Heimeriks, Gaston J. & Luo, Lin & Hekkert, Marko P., 2013. "A review of the European offshore wind innovation system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 294-306.
    14. Raven, Rob & Walrave, Bob, 2020. "Overcoming transformational failures through policy mixes in the dynamics of technological innovation systems," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    15. Eric Brouillat & Maïder Saint Jean, 2020. "Mind the gap: Investigating the impact of implementation gaps on cleaner technology transition," Post-Print hal-03490256, HAL.
    16. He, Zhengxia & Cao, Changshuai & Kuai, Leyi & Zhou, Yanqing & Wang, Jianming, 2022. "Impact of policies on wind power innovation at different income levels: Regional differences in China based on dynamic panel estimation," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    17. Miao, Chenglin & Fang, Debin & Sun, Liyan & Luo, Qiaoling, 2017. "Natural resources utilization efficiency under the influence of green technological innovation," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 153-161.
    18. Rosario J. Marrero & Juan Andrés Hernández-Cabrera & Ascensión Fumero & Bernardo Hernández, 2021. "Social Acceptance of Gas, Wind, and Solar Energies in the Canary Islands," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(18), pages 1-15, September.
    19. Laura Castro-Santos & Almudena Filgueira-Vizoso & Carlos Álvarez-Feal & Luis Carral, 2018. "Influence of Size on the Economic Feasibility of Floating Offshore Wind Farms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-13, November.
    20. Liu, Jinpeng & Lin, Yingwen & Jiang, Mingyue & Guo, Xia, 2024. "Exploring policy support for wind power development from a balancing perspective - A study of dynamic strategies based on evolutionary game," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:184:y:2024:i:c:s0301421523004445. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.