IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v174y2023ics030142152300023x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does regional natural gas supply produce a shortfall under transition from coal to gas? Case study in Jing-Jin-Ji Region

Author

Listed:
  • Zhao, Xu
  • Wang, Jiawei
  • Lei, Shan

Abstract

Coal-to-Gas Switching policy plays an important role in improving the environment. However, how to balance gas shortage and environmental quality, has become a serious problem in China. We establish a supply optimization model with the objective of minimizing total supply costs, and the constraints of gas supply capacity, flow balance of each node, as well as effective work volume of gas storage reservoir etc. Jing-Jin-Ji region is chosen as case study and we find that the added demand for Coal-to-Gas switching is 12.607 billion cubic meters by the end of 2021, which is made up by mixed gas imported from Central Asian and Tarim, and increases the total cost by 46.5%. Simultaneously, if the Central Asian gas is cut-off, LNG can be a supplement in peak season, but the system costs will increase 17.5%. If the imported gas from Central Asian is cut-off and the gas from Russia further reduces 8 billion cubic meters in 2025, then a shortage will occur. This study is helpful for government to figure out the risk boundary of supply network, and explore the most appropriate measures to ensure gas security, such as balance ratio of spot and long-term LNG contracts and effective cooperation mechanisms.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Xu & Wang, Jiawei & Lei, Shan, 2023. "Does regional natural gas supply produce a shortfall under transition from coal to gas? Case study in Jing-Jin-Ji Region," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:174:y:2023:i:c:s030142152300023x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113438
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142152300023X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113438?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lise, Wietze & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & van Oostvoorn, Frits, 2008. "Natural gas corridors between the EU and its main suppliers: Simulation results with the dynamic GASTALE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1890-1906, June.
    2. Feijoo, Felipe & Huppmann, Daniel & Sakiyama, Larissa & Siddiqui, Sauleh, 2016. "North American natural gas model: Impact of cross-border trade with Mexico," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1084-1095.
    3. Ibrahim Abada & Steven Gabriel & Vincent Briat & Olivier Massol, 2013. "A Generalized Nash–Cournot Model for the Northwestern European Natural Gas Markets with a Fuel Substitution Demand Function: The GaMMES Model," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42, March.
    4. Egging, Rudolf G. & Gabriel, Steven A., 2006. "Examining market power in the European natural gas market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2762-2778, November.
    5. Bopp, A. E. & Kannan, V. R. & Palocsay, S. W. & Stevens, S. P., 1996. "An optimization model for planning natural gas purchases, transportation, storage and deliverability," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 511-522, October.
    6. Asif, M., 2009. "Sustainable energy options for Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 903-909, May.
    7. Crow, Daniel J.G. & Giarola, Sara & Hawkes, Adam D., 2018. "A dynamic model of global natural gas supply," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 452-469.
    8. Egging, Ruud & Gabriel, Steven A. & Holz, Franziska & Zhuang, Jifang, 2008. "A complementarity model for the European natural gas market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2385-2414, July.
    9. Luis Contesse & Juan Ferrer & Sergio Maturana, 2005. "A Mixed-Integer Programming Model for Gas Purchase and Transportation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 39-63, October.
    10. Zhuang, Jifang & Gabriel, Steven A., 2008. "A complementarity model for solving stochastic natural gas market equilibria," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 113-147, January.
    11. Gijsbert Zwart & Machiel Mulder, 2006. "NATGAS: a model of the European natural gas market," CPB Memorandum 144, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Qi & Kuang, Zhonghong & Liu, Xiaohua & Zhang, Tao, 2024. "Optimal sizing and techno-economic analysis of the hybrid PV-battery-cooling storage system for commercial buildings in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 355(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chyong, Chi Kong & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2014. "Strategic Eurasian natural gas market model for energy security and policy analysis: Formulation and application to South Stream," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 198-211.
    2. Egging-Bratseth, Ruud & Baltensperger, Tobias & Tomasgard, Asgeir, 2020. "Solving oligopolistic equilibrium problems with convex optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(1), pages 44-52.
    3. Ibrahim Abada, 2012. "A stochastic generalized Nash-Cournot model for the northwestern European natural gas markets with a fuel substitution demand function: The S-GaMMES model," Working Papers 1202, Chaire Economie du climat.
    4. Veronika Grimm & Lars Schewe & Martin Schmidt & Gregor Zöttl, 2019. "A multilevel model of the European entry-exit gas market," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 89(2), pages 223-255, April.
    5. Guo, Yingjian & Hawkes, Adam, 2019. "Asset stranding in natural gas export facilities: An agent-based simulation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 132-155.
    6. Egging, Ruud, 2013. "Benders Decomposition for multi-stage stochastic mixed complementarity problems – Applied to a global natural gas market model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 226(2), pages 341-353.
    7. Gong, Chengzhu & Wu, Desheng & Gong, Nianjiao & Qi, Rui, 2020. "Multi-agent mixed complementary simulation of natural gas upstream market liberalization in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    8. Vitor Miguel Ribeiro & Gustavo Soutinho & Isabel Soares, 2023. "Natural Gas Prices in the Framework of European Union’s Energy Transition: Assessing Evolution and Drivers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-46, February.
    9. Olmez Turan, Merve & Flamand, Tulay, 2023. "Optimizing investment and transportation decisions for the European natural gas supply chain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
    10. Stevie Lochran, 2021. "GNOME: A Dynamic Dispatch and Investment Optimisation Model of the European Natural Gas Network and Its Suppliers," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 1-44, December.
    11. Gijsbert T.J. Zwart, 2009. "European Natural Gas Markets: Resource Constraints and Market Power," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 151-166.
    12. Devine, Mel T. & Russo, Marianna, 2019. "Liquefied natural gas and gas storage valuation: Lessons from the integrated Irish and UK markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1389-1406.
    13. Kolb, Sebastian & Plankenbühler, Thomas & Frank, Jonas & Dettelbacher, Johannes & Ludwig, Ralf & Karl, Jürgen & Dillig, Marius, 2021. "Scenarios for the integration of renewable gases into the German natural gas market – A simulation-based optimisation approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    14. Mel Devine & James Gleeson & John Kinsella & David Ramsey, 2014. "A Rolling Optimisation Model of the UK Natural Gas Market," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 209-244, June.
    15. Adrienn Selei & Borbála Tóth & Gustav Resch & László Szabó & Lukas Liebmann & Péter Kaderják, 2017. "How far is mitigation of Russian gas dependency possible through energy efficiency and renewable policies assuming different gas market structures?," Energy & Environment, , vol. 28(1-2), pages 54-69, March.
    16. Möst, Dominik & Perlwitz, Holger, 2009. "Prospects of gas supply until 2020 in Europe and its relevance for the power sector in the context of emission trading," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1510-1522.
    17. Lise, Wietze & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2008. "Future evolution of the liberalised European gas market: Simulation results with a dynamic model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 989-1004.
    18. Gijsbert Zwart & S. Ikonnikova, 2010. "Reinforcing buyer power: Trade quotas and supply diversification in the EU natural gas market," CPB Discussion Paper 147, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    19. Baltensperger, Tobias & Füchslin, Rudolf M. & Krütli, Pius & Lygeros, John, 2016. "Multiplicity of equilibria in conjectural variations models of natural gas markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(2), pages 646-656.
    20. Hassan Hamie & Anis Hoayek & Hans Auer, 2020. "Modeling Post-Liberalized European Gas Market Concentration—A Game Theory Perspective," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-16, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:174:y:2023:i:c:s030142152300023x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.