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Projection of fuel cell electric vehicle demand reflecting the feedback effects between market conditions and market share affected by spatial factors

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  • Ko, Sungmin
  • Shin, Jungwoo

Abstract

The Korean government has planned policies to increase the penetration rate of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). Policy intervention has a positive effect on FCEV diffusion. Infrastructure distribution plays a significant role in accelerating penetration rate at the early stage of the market. Although inevitably differences exist in the accessibility of hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs) by region due to various constraints, few studies have considered accessibility in detail. This study analyzes how policies that vary depending on time and space, including infrastructure distribution, impact demand for FCEVs. A multistage structure is employed in the analysis to reflect the influence of spatial factors. Vehicle preference is analyzed through a discrete choice experiment at the first stage. The second stage solves the location problem and predicts the market share of FCEVs by reflecting the feedback effect between FCEVs’ market share and the accessibility of HRSs through a loop structure. The results indicate that improving access to HRSs positively affects the initial stage of the market; however, after accessibility reaches a certain level, it no longer affects the market share. The subsidies for hydrogen refueling costs bring a relatively rapid change to the gradually increasing penetration rate of FCEVs.

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  • Ko, Sungmin & Shin, Jungwoo, 2023. "Projection of fuel cell electric vehicle demand reflecting the feedback effects between market conditions and market share affected by spatial factors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:173:y:2023:i:c:s0301421522006048
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113385
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    2. Kim, Doha & Song, Yeosol & Kim, Songyie & Lee, Sewang & Wu, Yanqin & Shin, Jungwoo & Lee, Daeho, 2023. "How should the results of artificial intelligence be explained to users? - Research on consumer preferences in user-centered explainable artificial intelligence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).

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