IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v149y2021ics0301421520307321.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling the interaction between policies and international trade flows for liquid biofuels: an agent-based modelling approach

Author

Listed:
  • van Tol, M.C.M.
  • Moncada, J.A.
  • Lukszo, Z.
  • Weijnen, M.

Abstract

World biofuel production and trade have grown exponentially in the last decade. Nevertheless, the interaction between the markets for oilseeds (food/feed/bioenergy) and liquid vegetable oil-based biofuels is overwhelmingly complex and thus not well understood. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit agent-based model to provide insights into the effect of farmers' behaviour on trade flows and biodiesel production and to shed light on the influence of import tariffs for both palm oil and biodiesel on system behaviour. This new approach enables us to assess different types of rational economic behaviour for the adoption of crops by farmers. Results show that model outcomes can vary substantially based on the assumptions made concerning the behaviour of farmers. Moreover, we found that biodiesel trade and production are more sensitive to a change in the EU-28's biodiesel import tariff than to a change in the EU-28's palm oil import tariff. Overall, our results show that social processes, actors' heterogeneity, and institutions play an important role in the behaviour of the system.

Suggested Citation

  • van Tol, M.C.M. & Moncada, J.A. & Lukszo, Z. & Weijnen, M., 2021. "Modelling the interaction between policies and international trade flows for liquid biofuels: an agent-based modelling approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:149:y:2021:i:c:s0301421520307321
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.112021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421520307321
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.112021?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Britz, Wolfgang & Delzeit, Ruth, 2013. "The impact of German biogas production on European and global agricultural markets, land use and the environment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1268-1275.
    2. Moncada, J.A. & Verstegen, J.A. & Posada, J.A. & Junginger, M. & Lukszo, Z. & Faaij, A. & Weijnen, M., 2018. "Exploring policy options to spur the expansion of ethanol production and consumption in Brazil: An agent-based modeling approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 619-641.
    3. Moncada, J.A. & Junginger, M. & Lukszo, Z. & Faaij, A. & Weijnen, M., 2017. "Exploring path dependence, policy interactions, and actor behavior in the German biodiesel supply chain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 370-381.
    4. Martinez-Gonzalez, Ariadna & Sheldon, Ian M. & Thompson, Stanley R., 2007. "Estimating the Effects of U.S. Distortions in the Ethanol Market Using a Partial Equilibrium Trade Model," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon 9802, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. MacDonald, James M. & Korb, Penelope J., 2011. "Agricultural Contracting Update: Contracts in 2008," Economic Information Bulletin 101279, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    6. Moncada, J.A. & Lukszo, Z. & Junginger, M. & Faaij, A. & Weijnen, M., 2017. "A conceptual framework for the analysis of the effect of institutions on biofuel supply chains," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P1), pages 895-915.
    7. Hoefnagels, Ric & Resch, Gustav & Junginger, Martin & Faaij, André, 2014. "International and domestic uses of solid biofuels under different renewable energy support scenarios in the European Union," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 139-157.
    8. Sorda, Giovanni & Banse, Martin & Kemfert, Claudia, 2010. "An overview of biofuel policies across the world," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6977-6988, November.
    9. Antoine Bouët & Carmen Estrades & David Laborde, 2014. "Differential Export Taxes along the Oilseeds Value Chain: A Partial Equilibrium Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(3), pages 924-938.
    10. Tomei, Julia & Upham, Paul, 2009. "Argentinean soy-based biodiesel: An introduction to production and impacts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3890-3898, October.
    11. Gode, Dhananjay K & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Allocative Efficiency of Markets with Zero-Intelligence Traders: Market as a Partial Substitute for Individual Rationality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 119-137, February.
    12. Birur, Dileep & Hertel, Thomas & Tyner, Wally, 2008. "Impact of Biofuel Production on World Agricultural Markets: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," GTAP Working Papers 2413, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    13. Kostadinov, Fabian & Holm, Stefan & Steubing, Bernhard & Thees, Oliver & Lemm, Renato, 2014. "Simulation of a Swiss wood fuel and roundwood market: An explorative study in agent-based modeling," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 105-118.
    14. Maarten Ottens & Maarten Franssen & Peter Kroes & Ibo Van De Poel, 2006. "Modelling infrastructures as socio-technical systems," International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(2/3), pages 133-145.
    15. Junginger, Martin & van Dam, Jinke & Zarrilli, Simonetta & Ali Mohamed, Fatin & Marchal, Didier & Faaij, Andre, 2011. "Opportunities and barriers for international bioenergy trade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2028-2042, April.
    16. Martinez-Gonzalez Ariadna & Sheldon Ian M & Thompson Stanley, 2007. "Estimating the Welfare Effects of U.S. Distortions in the Ethanol Market Using a Partial Equilibrium Trade Model," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-19, December.
    17. Kathleen Araújo & Devinder Mahajan & Ryan Kerr & Marcelo da Silva, 2017. "Global Biofuels at the Crossroads: An Overview of Technical, Policy, and Investment Complexities in the Sustainability of Biofuel Development," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-22, March.
    18. Faaij, Andre P.C., 2006. "Bio-energy in Europe: changing technology choices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 322-342, February.
    19. Glithero, Neryssa J. & Wilson, Paul & Ramsden, Stephen J., 2013. "Prospects for arable farm uptake of Short Rotation Coppice willow and miscanthus in England," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 209-218.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Julia Wenger & Georg Jäger & Annukka Näyhä & Simon Plakolb & Paul Erich Krassnitzer & Tobias Stern, 2024. "Exploring potential diffusion pathways of biorefinery innovations—An agent‐based simulation approach for facilitating shared value creation," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5), pages 4652-4693, July.
    2. Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Sung, Jinsok & Talipova, Amina & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2022. "Analyzing energy trade policy in Central Asia using the intercountry trade force approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 441-454.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Julia Hansson & Roman Hackl, 2016. "The potential influence of sustainability criteria on the European Union pellets market—the example of Sweden," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(4), pages 413-429, July.
    2. Moncada, J.A. & Lukszo, Z. & Junginger, M. & Faaij, A. & Weijnen, M., 2017. "A conceptual framework for the analysis of the effect of institutions on biofuel supply chains," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P1), pages 895-915.
    3. Moncada, J.A. & Junginger, M. & Lukszo, Z. & Faaij, A. & Weijnen, M., 2017. "Exploring path dependence, policy interactions, and actor behavior in the German biodiesel supply chain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 370-381.
    4. Unknown, 2013. "Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Volume 09, Number 1, 2013," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 9(1), pages 140-140.
    5. repec:aud:audfin:v:21:y:2019:i:50:p:75 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Dong Hee Suh & Charles B. Moss, 2017. "Dynamic adjustment of ethanol demand to crude oil prices: implications for mandated ethanol usage," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1587-1607, June.
    7. Huang, Jikun & Yang, Jun & Msangi, Siwa & Rozelle, Scott & Weersink, Alfons, 2012. "Global biofuel production and poverty in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 246-255.
    8. Ge, Jianping & Lei, Yalin, 2017. "Policy options for non-grain bioethanol in China: Insights from an economy-energy-environment CGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 502-511.
    9. Proskurina, Svetlana & Rimppi, Heli & Heinimö, Jussi & Hansson, Julia & Orlov, Anton & Raghu, KC & Vakkilainen, Esa, 2016. "Logistical, economic, environmental and regulatory conditions for future wood pellet transportation by sea to Europe: The case of Northwest Russian seaports," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 38-50.
    10. Schillo, R. Sandra & Isabelle, Diane A. & Shakiba, Abtin, 2017. "Linking advanced biofuels policies with stakeholder interests: A method building on Quality Function Deployment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 126-137.
    11. Barrette, Julie & Thiffault, Evelyne & Achim, Alexis & Junginger, Martin & Pothier, David & De Grandpré, Louis, 2017. "A financial analysis of the potential of dead trees from the boreal forest of eastern Canada to serve as feedstock for wood pellet export," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 410-425.
    12. de Barros, Marisa Maia & Szklo, Alexandre, 2015. "Petroleum refining flexibility and cost to address the risk of ethanol supply disruptions: The case of Brazil," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 20-31.
    13. Zhang, Dengjun & Asche, Frank & Oglend, Atle, 2014. "Ethanol and trade: An analysis of price transmission in the US market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-8.
    14. Gohin, Alexandre & Levert, Fabrice & Forslund, Agneta, 2017. "The EU Argentinean Trade Dispute on Biodiesel: An Economic Assessment," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 66(1), March.
    15. Huang, Jikun & Yang, Jun & Msangi, Siwa & Rozelle, Scott & Weersink, Alfons, 2012. "Biofuels and the poor: Global impact pathways of biofuels on agricultural markets," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 439-451.
    16. Yano, Yuki & Blandford, David & Surry, Yves R., 2010. "The Implications of Alternative U.S. Domestic and Trade Policies for Biofuels," 84th Annual Conference, March 29-31, 2010, Edinburgh, Scotland 91832, Agricultural Economics Society.
    17. Stefan Dragos Cirstea & Andreea Cirstea & Irimie Emil Popa & Gabriel Radu, 2019. "The Role of Bioenergy in Transition to a Sustainable Bioeconomy – Study on EU Countries," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 21(50), pages 1-75, February.
    18. Okwo, Adaora & Thomas, Valerie M., 2014. "Biomass feedstock contracts: Role of land quality and yield variability in near term feasibility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 67-80.
    19. Haddad, Salwa & Britz, Wolfgang & Börner, Jan, 2017. "Impacts Of Increased Forest Biomass Demand In The European Bioeconomy," 57th Annual Conference, Weihenstephan, Germany, September 13-15, 2017 261986, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    20. Ram N. Acharya & Rafael Perez-Pena, 2020. "Role of Comparative Advantage in Biofuel Policy Adoption in Latin America," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-13, February.
    21. Moncada, J.A. & Verstegen, J.A. & Posada, J.A. & Junginger, M. & Lukszo, Z. & Faaij, A. & Weijnen, M., 2018. "Exploring policy options to spur the expansion of ethanol production and consumption in Brazil: An agent-based modeling approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 619-641.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:149:y:2021:i:c:s0301421520307321. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.