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The role of a low carbon fuel standard in achieving long-term GHG reduction targets

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  • Lepitzki, Justin
  • Axsen, Jonn

Abstract

A low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) has been implemented in several regions to reduce the well-to-wheel carbon content of transportation fuels. This study explores the potential role of an LCFS in achieving deep, long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets in a region’s transportation sector, when implemented with other climate policies such as fuel economy regulations, a zero emission vehicle mandate, and carbon pricing. We develop a dynamic vehicle adoption model coupled with a fuel supply optimization model, applied to the personal and freight vehicle sectors in British Columbia, Canada. Results demonstrate that a combination of the most stringent policies is required to achieve 2050 GHG targets, including an LCFS. Further, the LCFS appears to be complementary to the other modeled policies, resulting in incremental GHG reductions in all modeled policy scenarios. The LCFS has an additive but lower impact in the personal vehicle sector, where a zero emission vehicle mandate induces a substantial transition to low carbon fuels without the LCFS. LCFS impacts are larger in the freight sector, where a switch to zero emission vehicles does not necessarily cut GHGs. Overall, with careful policy design, the LCFS could play an important role in decarbonizing the transportation sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Lepitzki, Justin & Axsen, Jonn, 2018. "The role of a low carbon fuel standard in achieving long-term GHG reduction targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 423-440.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:119:y:2018:i:c:p:423-440
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.03.067
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    Cited by:

    1. Bhardwaj, Chandan & Axsen, Jonn & Kern, Florian & McCollum, David, 2020. "Why have multiple climate policies for light-duty vehicles? Policy mix rationales, interactions and research gaps," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 309-326.
    2. Hu, Xu & Yang, Zhaojun & Sun, Jun & Zhang, Yali, 2021. "Exempting battery electric vehicles from traffic restrictions: Impacts on market and environment under Pigovian taxation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 53-91.
    3. Bhardwaj, Chandan & Axsen, Jonn & McCollum, David, 2022. "How to design a zero-emissions vehicle mandate? Simulating impacts on sales, GHG emissions and cost-effectiveness using the AUtomaker-Consumer Model (AUM)," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 152-168.
    4. Abbas, Jawad & Wang, Lisu & Ben Belgacem, Samira & Pawar, Puja Sunil & Najam, Hina & Abbas, Jaffar, 2023. "Investment in renewable energy and electricity output: Role of green finance, environmental tax, and geopolitical risk: Empirical evidence from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    5. Hensher, David A. & Wei, Edward, 2024. "Energy and environmental costs in transitioning to zero and low emission trucks for the Australian truck Fleet: An industry perspective," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    6. Flávia Mendes de Almeida Collaço & Ana Carolina Rodrigues Teixeira & Pedro Gerber Machado & Raquel Rocha Borges & Thiago Luis Felipe Brito & Dominique Mouette, 2022. "Road Freight Transport Literature and the Achievements of the Sustainable Development Goals—A Systematic Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-18, March.
    7. Long, Zoe & Axsen, Jonn & Kitt, Shelby, 2020. "Public support for supply-focused transport policies: Vehicle emissions, low-carbon fuels, and ZEV sales standards in Canada and California," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 98-115.
    8. Nikas, A. & Koasidis, K. & Köberle, A.C. & Kourtesi, G. & Doukas, H., 2022. "A comparative study of biodiesel in Brazil and Argentina: An integrated systems of innovation perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    9. Mark Purdon & Julie Witcover & Colin Murphy & Sonya Ziaja & Mark Winfield & Genevieve Giuliano & Charles Séguin & Colleen Kaiser & Jacques Papy & Lewis Fulton, 2021. "Climate and transportation policy sequencing in California and Quebec," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 38(5), pages 596-630, September.
    10. Zhang, Dongyang & Mohsin, Muhammad & Rasheed, Abdul Khaliq & Chang, Youngho & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2021. "Public spending and green economic growth in BRI region: Mediating role of green finance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    11. Benjamin Dachis, 2018. "Speed Bump Ahead: Ottawa Should Drive Slowly on Clean Fuel Standards," e-briefs 279, C.D. Howe Institute.
    12. Mandegari, Mohsen & Ebadian, Mahmood & Saddler, Jack (John), 2023. "The need for effective life cycle assessment (LCA) to enhance the effectiveness of policies such as low carbon fuel standards (LCFS's)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    13. Axsen, Jonn & Wolinetz, Michael, 2023. "What does a low-carbon fuel standard contribute to a policy mix? An interdisciplinary review of evidence and research gaps," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 54-63.
    14. Kitt, Shelby & Axsen, Jonn & Long, Zoe & Rhodes, Ekaterina, 2021. "The role of trust in citizen acceptance of climate policy: Comparing perceptions of government competence, integrity and value similarity," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    15. Siskos, Pelopidas & Moysoglou, Yannis, 2019. "Assessing the impacts of setting CO2 emission targets on truck manufacturers: A model implementation and application for the EU," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 123-138.
    16. Hoyle, Aaron & Peters, Jotham & Jaccard, Mark & Rhodes, Ekaterina, 2024. "Additional or accidental? Simulating interactions between a low-carbon fuel standard and other climate policy instruments in Canada," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    17. Long, Zoe & Kitt, Shelby & Axsen, Jonn, 2021. "Who supports which low-carbon transport policies? Characterizing heterogeneity among Canadian citizens," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    18. Hammond, William & Axsen, Jonn & Kjeang, Erik, 2020. "How to slash greenhouse gas emissions in the freight sector: Policy insights from a technology-adoption model of Canada," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    19. Li, Weiqing & Chien, Fengsheng & Ngo, Quang-Thanh & Nguyen, Tien-Dung & Iqbal, Sajid & Bilal, Ahmad Raza, 2021. "Vertical financial disparity, energy prices and emission reduction: Empirical insights from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 109672, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Li, Weiqing & Chien, Fengsheng & Hsu, Ching-Chi & Zhang, YunQian & Nawaz, Muhammad Atif & Iqbal, Sajid & Mohsin, Muhammad, 2021. "Nexus between energy poverty and energy efficiency: Estimating the long-run dynamics," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).

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