IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v105y2017icp98-107.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of the long-term availability of uranium: The influence of dynamic constraints and market competition

Author

Listed:
  • Monnet, Antoine
  • Gabriel, Sophie
  • Percebois, Jacques

Abstract

The availability of natural uranium has a direct impact on the global capability to sustain the demand from nuclear power plants in the coming decades. Therefore, the expansion scenarios of nuclear power should be analysed in conjunction with long-term dynamics of the uranium market. This paper presents three forms of a partial-equilibrium model of the uranium market. All forms consider global demand as exogenous (input scenarios from the literature) and regional estimates of the quantities and the costs of ultimate resources (results obtained from previous work). The three forms differ by the market constraints and the market structure considered. Comparing them highlights the role of the market structure and the impact of some key parameters of the market dynamics on the long-term availability of uranium. An important finding is the influence of two constraints: the anticipation of demand and the significant role played by the correlation between price and exploration expenses in shaping the price trends. In addition, results from simulations highlight different long-term dynamics when the producers are allocated into a limited number of regions (to simulate an oligopoly) compared to a single region (undefined number of players to simulate perfect competition).

Suggested Citation

  • Monnet, Antoine & Gabriel, Sophie & Percebois, Jacques, 2017. "Analysis of the long-term availability of uranium: The influence of dynamic constraints and market competition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 98-107.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:105:y:2017:i:c:p:98-107
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.02.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142151730085X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.02.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yaksic, Andrés & Tilton, John E., 2009. "Using the cumulative availability curve to assess the threat of mineral depletion: The case of lithium," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 185-194, December.
    2. Gabriel, Sophie & Baschwitz, Anne & Mathonnière, Gilles & Fizaine, Florian & Eleouet, Tommy, 2013. "Building future nuclear power fleets: The available uranium resources constraint," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 458-469.
    3. Global Energy Assessment Writing Team,, 2012. "Global Energy Assessment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107005198, October.
    4. Global Energy Assessment Writing Team,, 2012. "Global Energy Assessment," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521182935, October.
    5. James G. MacKinnon, 2010. "Critical Values For Cointegration Tests," Working Paper 1227, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Muellner, Nikolaus & Arnold, Nikolaus & Gufler, Klaus & Kromp, Wolfgang & Renneberg, Wolfgang & Liebert, Wolfgang, 2021. "Nuclear energy - The solution to climate change?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    2. Ben Wealer & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2020. "Nuclear Power as a System Good: Organizational Models for Production along the Value-Added Chain," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1883, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Arnaut, Javier L., 2022. "The importance of uranium prices and structural shocks: Some implications for Greenland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muellner, Nikolaus & Arnold, Nikolaus & Gufler, Klaus & Kromp, Wolfgang & Renneberg, Wolfgang & Liebert, Wolfgang, 2021. "Nuclear energy - The solution to climate change?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    2. Anne-Maree Dowd & Michelle Rodriguez & Talia Jeanneret, 2015. "Social Science Insights for the BioCCS Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(5), pages 1-19, May.
    3. Fankhauser, Samuel & Jotzo, Frank, 2017. "Economic growth and development with low-carbon energy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86850, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Tilmann Rave, 2013. "Innovationsindikatoren zum globalen Klimaschutz – FuE-Ausgaben und Patente," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(15), pages 34-41, August.
    5. Daniel Moran & Richard Wood, 2014. "Convergence Between The Eora, Wiod, Exiobase, And Openeu'S Consumption-Based Carbon Accounts," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 245-261, September.
    6. Lykke E. Andersen & Luis Carlos Jemio, 2016. "Decentralization and poverty reduction in Bolivia: Challenges and opportunities," Development Research Working Paper Series 01/2016, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    7. Chen, Han & Huang, Ye & Shen, Huizhong & Chen, Yilin & Ru, Muye & Chen, Yuanchen & Lin, Nan & Su, Shu & Zhuo, Shaojie & Zhong, Qirui & Wang, Xilong & Liu, Junfeng & Li, Bengang & Tao, Shu, 2016. "Modeling temporal variations in global residential energy consumption and pollutant emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 820-829.
    8. Inglesi-Lotz, Roula, 2017. "Social rate of return to R&D on various energy technologies: Where should we invest more? A study of G7 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 521-525.
    9. Tom Mikunda & Tom Kober & Heleen de Coninck & Morgan Bazilian & Hilke R�sler & Bob van der Zwaan, 2014. "Designing policy for deployment of CCS in industry," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(5), pages 665-676, September.
    10. Li, Yating & Fei, Yinxin & Zhang, Xiao-Bing & Qin, Ping, 2019. "Household appliance ownership and income inequality: Evidence from micro data in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-1.
    11. Xiaolun Wang & Xinlin Yao, 2020. "Fueling Pro-Environmental Behaviors with Gamification Design: Identifying Key Elements in Ant Forest with the Kano Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-17, March.
    12. Florian Knobloch & Hector Pollitt & Unnada Chewpreecha & Vassilis Daioglou & Jean-Francois Mercure, 2017. "Simulating the deep decarbonisation of residential heating for limiting global warming to 1.5C," Papers 1710.11019, arXiv.org, revised May 2018.
    13. He, Gang & Victor, David G., 2017. "Experiences and lessons from China’s success in providing electricity for all," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 335-338.
    14. Jun Nakatani & Tamon Maruyama & Kosuke Fukuchi & Yuichi Moriguchi, 2015. "A Practical Approach to Screening Potential Environmental Hotspots of Different Impact Categories in Supply Chains," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-15, August.
    15. van der Zwaan, Bob & Kober, Tom & Calderon, Silvia & Clarke, Leon & Daenzer, Katie & Kitous, Alban & Labriet, Maryse & Lucena, André F.P. & Octaviano, Claudia & Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolas, 2016. "Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 526-542.
    16. Fichter, Tobias & Soria, Rafael & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto & Lucena, Andre F.P., 2017. "Assessing the potential role of concentrated solar power (CSP) for the northeast power system of Brazil using a detailed power system model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 695-715.
    17. Selosse, Sandrine & Ricci, Olivia & Maïzi, Nadia, 2013. "Fukushima's impact on the European power sector: The key role of CCS technologies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 305-312.
    18. Kamjoo, Azadeh & Maheri, Alireza & Putrus, Ghanim A., 2014. "Chance constrained programming using non-Gaussian joint distribution function in design of standalone hybrid renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 677-688.
    19. Mokri, Alaeddine & Aal Ali, Mona & Emziane, Mahieddine, 2013. "Solar energy in the United Arab Emirates: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 340-375.
    20. Ondraczek, Janosch, 2014. "Are we there yet? Improving solar PV economics and power planning in developing countries: The case of Kenya," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 604-615.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:105:y:2017:i:c:p:98-107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.