IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cte/wsrepe/33508.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Optimal stopping of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck bridge

Author

Listed:
  • D'Auria, Bernardo
  • Guada Azze, Abel

Abstract

Markov bridges may be useful models in finance to describe situations in which information on the underlying processes is known in advance. However, within the framework of optimal stopping problems, Markov bridges are inherently challenging processes as they are time-inhomogeneous and account for explosive drifts. Consequently, few results are known in the literature of optimal stopping theory related to Markov bridges, all of them confined to the simplistic Brownian bridge.In this paper we make a rigorous analysis of the existence and characterization of the free boundary related to the optimal stopping problem that maximizes the mean of an Ornstein&-Uhlenbeckbridge. The result includes the Brownian bridge problem as a limit case. The methodology hereby presented relies on a times-pace transformation that casts the original problem into a more tractable one with infinite horizon and a Brownian motion underneath. We concludeby commenting on two different numerical algorithms to compute the free-boundary equation and discuss illustrative cases that shed light on the boundary's shape. In particular,the free boundary does not generally share the monotonicity of the Brownian bridge case.

Suggested Citation

  • D'Auria, Bernardo & Guada Azze, Abel, 2021. "Optimal stopping of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck bridge," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 33508, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:33508
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://e-archivo.uc3m.es/rest/api/core/bitstreams/6fdfaf00-6a1c-4d16-ab10-0adf38ace20c/content
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William M. Boyce, 1970. "Stopping Rules for Selling Bonds," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 1(1), pages 27-53, Spring.
    2. Tim Leung & Jiao Li & Xin Li, 2018. "Optimal Timing to Trade along a Randomized Brownian Bridge," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-23, August.
    3. Detemple, Jerome & Kitapbayev, Yerkin, 2020. "The value of green energy under regulation uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Tim Leung & Xin Li, 2016. "Optimal Mean Reversion Trading:Mathematical Analysis and Practical Applications," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 9839, December.
    5. Yerkin Kitapbayev & Tim Leung, 2017. "Optimal mean-reverting spread trading: nonlinear integral equation approach," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 181-203, May.
    6. Glover, Kristoffer, 2022. "Optimally stopping a Brownian bridge with an unknown pinning time: A Bayesian approach," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 919-937.
    7. Tim Leung & Xin Li, 2015. "Optimal Mean Reversion Trading With Transaction Costs And Stop-Loss Exit," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(03), pages 1-31.
    8. Baurdoux, Erik J. & Chen, Nan & Surya, Budhi & Yamazak, Kazutoshi, 2015. "Optimal double stopping of a Brownian bridge," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 61618, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Goran Peskir, 2005. "On The American Option Problem," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 169-181, January.
    10. Ekström, Erik & Vaicenavicius, Juozas, 2020. "Optimal stopping of a Brownian bridge with an unknown pinning point," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 806-823.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Azze, A. & D’Auria, B. & García-Portugués, E., 2024. "Optimal stopping of an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck bridge," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    2. Abel Azze & Bernardo D'Auria & Eduardo Garc'ia-Portugu'es, 2022. "Optimal stopping of Gauss-Markov bridges," Papers 2211.05835, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
    3. Bernardo D’Auria & Eduardo García-Portugués & Abel Guada, 2020. "Discounted Optimal Stopping of a Brownian Bridge, with Application to American Options under Pinning," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-27, July.
    4. Tiziano De Angelis & Alessandro Milazzo, 2019. "Optimal stopping for the exponential of a Brownian bridge," Papers 1904.00075, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.
    5. Bahman Angoshtari & Tim Leung, 2019. "Optimal dynamic basis trading," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 307-335, September.
    6. Yerkin Kitapbayev & Tim Leung, 2018. "Mean Reversion Trading With Sequential Deadlines And Transaction Costs," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(01), pages 1-22, February.
    7. Tim Leung & Raphael Yan, 2018. "Optimal dynamic pairs trading of futures under a two-factor mean-reverting model," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(03), pages 1-23, September.
    8. Glover, Kristoffer, 2022. "Optimally stopping a Brownian bridge with an unknown pinning time: A Bayesian approach," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 919-937.
    9. Guo, Kevin & Leung, Tim, 2017. "Understanding the non-convergence of agricultural futures via stochastic storage costs and timing options," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 32-49.
    10. Jiao Li, 2016. "Trading VIX Futures under Mean Reversion with Regime Switching," Papers 1605.07945, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2016.
    11. Dammann, Felix & Ferrari, Giorgio, 2021. "On an Irreversible Investment Problem with Two-Factor Uncertainty," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 646, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    12. Jiao Li, 2016. "Trading VIX futures under mean reversion with regime switching," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(03), pages 1-20, September.
    13. Felix Dammann & Giorgio Ferrari, 2023. "Optimal execution with multiplicative price impact and incomplete information on the return," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 713-768, July.
    14. Abel Azze & Bernardo D'Auria & Eduardo Garc'ia-Portugu'es, 2022. "Optimal exercise of American options under time-dependent Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes," Papers 2211.04095, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    15. Dammann, Felix & Ferrari, Giorgio, 2022. "Optimal Execution with Multiplicative Price Impact and Incomplete Information on the Return," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 663, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    16. Peng Huang & Tianxiang Wang, 2016. "On the Profitability of Optimal Mean Reversion Trading Strategies," Papers 1602.05858, arXiv.org.
    17. Jize Zhang & Tim Leung & Aleksandr Y. Aravkin, 2018. "Mean Reverting Portfolios via Penalized OU-Likelihood Estimation," Papers 1803.06460, arXiv.org.
    18. Jamie Kang & Tim Leung, 2017. "Asynchronous ADRs: overnight vs intraday returns and trading strategies," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(4), pages 580-596, October.
    19. Bernardo D’Auria & Alessandro Ferriero, 2020. "A Class of Itô Diffusions with Known Terminal Value and Specified Optimal Barrier," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, January.
    20. Yerkin Kitapbayev & Tim Leung, 2017. "Optimal mean-reverting spread trading: nonlinear integral equation approach," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 181-203, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Free-Boundary Problem;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:33508. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ana Poveda (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://portal.uc3m.es/portal/page/portal/dpto_estadistica .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.