IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v84y2019ics0140988319302713.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of changes in crude oil trade network patterns on national economy

Author

Listed:
  • Xi, Xian
  • Zhou, Jinsheng
  • Gao, Xiangyun
  • Liu, Donghui
  • Zheng, Huiling
  • Sun, Qingru

Abstract

Crude oil is one of the most important energy sources for the development of the national economy. The regions along the Belt and Road are rich in crude oil resources. As the Belt and Road Initiative (B&R Initiative) progresses and develops further, an increasing numbers of countries are participating, which thus increases trade cooperation and changes the pattern of crude oil trade among countries along the Belt and Road (B&R countries). This change will have various impacts on the economies of different countries. Based on the complex network and econometric theory, we study the impact of crude oil trade pattern changes of the B&R countries on each country's GDP. We obtained the following results: (1) The impact of national trade influence on GDP was significant and positive, particularly after the initiative was proposed. (2) The centrality of the country's role in the trade network had a significant and favorable impact on GDP, but it was weakened after the initiative was introduced. (3) The impact of the country's import risk in the network on GDP was negative. (4) For countries with different economic levels, changes in the role of national trade had various effects on their GDPs.

Suggested Citation

  • Xi, Xian & Zhou, Jinsheng & Gao, Xiangyun & Liu, Donghui & Zheng, Huiling & Sun, Qingru, 2019. "Impact of changes in crude oil trade network patterns on national economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:84:y:2019:i:c:s0140988319302713
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104490
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988319302713
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104490?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gert Sabidussi, 1966. "The centrality index of a graph," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 31(4), pages 581-603, December.
    2. Mounir Ben Mbarek & Samia Nasreen & Rochdi Feki, 2017. "The contribution of nuclear energy to economic growth in France: short and long run," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 219-238, January.
    3. Al Rousan, Sahel & Sbia, Rashid & Tas, Bedri Kamil Onur, 2018. "A dynamic network analysis of the world oil market: Analysis of OPEC and non-OPEC members," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 28-41.
    4. Hao, Xiaoqing & An, Haizhong & Qi, Hai & Gao, Xiangyun, 2016. "Evolution of the exergy flow network embodied in the global fossil energy trade: Based on complex network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1515-1522.
    5. Zhong, Weiqiong & An, Haizhong & Shen, Lei & Fang, Wei & Gao, Xiangyun & Dong, Di, 2017. "The roles of countries in the international fossil fuel trade: An emergy and network analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 365-376.
    6. Aisen, Ari & Veiga, Francisco José, 2013. "How does political instability affect economic growth?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 151-167.
    7. Urvashi Dhawan & Bagala Biswal, 1999. "Re-examining export-led growth hypothesis: a multivariate cointegration analysis for India," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 525-530.
    8. An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Fang, Wei & Ding, Yinghui & Zhong, Weiqiong, 2014. "Research on patterns in the fluctuation of the co-movement between crude oil futures and spot prices: A complex network approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1067-1075.
    9. Zhang, Hai-Ying & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2014. "Competition, transmission and pattern evolution: A network analysis of global oil trade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 312-322.
    10. Gao, Cuixia & Sun, Mei & Shen, Bo, 2015. "Features and evolution of international fossil energy trade relationships: A weighted multilayer network analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 542-554.
    11. Hou, Wenyu & Liu, Huifang & Wang, Hui & Wu, Fengyang, 2018. "Structure and patterns of the international rare earths trade: A complex network analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 133-142.
    12. Dong, Di & An, Haizhong & Huang, Shupei, 2017. "The transfer of embodied carbon in copper international trade: An industry chain perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 173-180.
    13. Herrerias, M.J. & Joyeux, R. & Girardin, E., 2013. "Short- and long-run causality between energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence across regions in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1483-1492.
    14. Yildirim, Ertugrul & Aslan, Alper, 2012. "Energy consumption and economic growth nexus for 17 highly developed OECD countries: Further evidence based on bootstrap-corrected causality tests," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 985-993.
    15. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Multivariate granger causality between electricity consumption, exports and GDP: Evidence from a panel of Middle Eastern countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 229-236, January.
    16. Halicioglu, Ferda & Ketenci, Natalya, 2018. "Output, renewable and non-renewable energy production, and international trade: Evidence from EU-15 countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 995-1002.
    17. Yang, Yuying & Li, Jianping & Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Jianming, 2014. "Measuring external oil supply risk: A modified diversification index with country risk and potential oil exports," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 930-938.
    18. Jong-A-Pin, Richard, 2009. "On the measurement of political instability and its impact on economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 15-29, March.
    19. Li, Huajiao & An, Haizhong & Huang, Jiachen & Huang, Xuan & Mou, Songtao & Shi, Yanli, 2016. "The evolutionary stability of shareholders’ co-holding behavior for China’s listed energy companies based on associated maximal connected sub-graphs of derivative holding-based networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1601-1607.
    20. Yang, Yu & Poon, Jessie P.H. & Liu, Yi & Bagchi-Sen, Sharmistha, 2015. "Small and flat worlds: A complex network analysis of international trade in crude oil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P1), pages 534-543.
    21. Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Liddle, Brantley & Mikayilov, Jeyhun I., 2018. "The impact of international trade on CO2 emissions in oil exporting countries: Territory vs consumption emissions accounting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 343-350.
    22. Belke, Ansgar & Dobnik, Frauke & Dreger, Christian, 2011. "Energy consumption and economic growth: New insights into the cointegration relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 782-789, September.
    23. Sun, Mei & Gao, Cuixia & Shen, Bo, 2014. "Quantifying China's oil import risks and the impact on the national economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 605-611.
    24. Carlsson, Fredrik & Lundstrom, Susanna, 2002. "Economic Freedom and Growth: Decomposing the Effects," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 112(3-4), pages 335-344, September.
    25. Gao, Xiangyun & Fang, Wei & An, Feng & Wang, Yue, 2017. "Detecting method for crude oil price fluctuation mechanism under different periodic time series," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 201-212.
    26. Zhong, Weiqiong & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Sun, Xiaoqi, 2014. "The evolution of communities in the international oil trade network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 413(C), pages 42-52.
    27. Kanagawa, Makoto & Nakata, Toshihiko, 2008. "Assessment of access to electricity and the socio-economic impacts in rural areas of developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 2016-2029, June.
    28. An, Haizhong & Zhong, Weiqiong & Chen, Yurong & Li, Huajiao & Gao, Xiangyun, 2014. "Features and evolution of international crude oil trade relationships: A trading-based network analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 254-259.
    29. Yanfeng Zheng & Jun Xia, 2018. "Resource Dependence and Network Relations: A Test of Venture Capital Investment Termination in China," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 295-319, March.
    30. Shuai, Jing & Chen, Chien-fei & Cheng, Jinhua & Leng, Zhihui & Wang, Zihan, 2018. "Are China's solar PV products competitive in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 559-568.
    31. Xu, Tang & Baosheng, Zhang & Lianyong, Feng & Masri, Marwan & Honarvar, Afshin, 2011. "Economic impacts and challenges of China’s petroleum industry: An input–output analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 2905-2911.
    32. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Popp, Stephan, 2012. "The energy consumption-real GDP nexus revisited: Empirical evidence from 93 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 303-308.
    33. Fang Cai & Yang Lu, 2013. "Population Change and Resulting Slowdown in Potential GDP Growth in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 21(2), pages 1-14, March.
    34. Sun, Qingru & Gao, Xiangyun & Zhong, Weiqiong & Liu, Nairong, 2017. "The stability of the international oil trade network from short-term and long-term perspectives," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 482(C), pages 345-356.
    35. Fan, Ying & Ren, Suting & Cai, Hongbo & Cui, Xuefeng, 2014. "The state's role and position in international trade: A complex network perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 71-81.
    36. Zou, Gaolu & Chau, K.W., 2006. "Short- and long-run effects between oil consumption and economic growth in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3644-3655, December.
    37. George K. Zestos & Xiangnan Tao, 2002. "Trade and GDP Growth: Causal Relations in the United States and Canada," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(4), pages 859-874, April.
    38. Barthélemy, Marc & Barrat, Alain & Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo & Vespignani, Alessandro, 2005. "Characterization and modeling of weighted networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 346(1), pages 34-43.
    39. Belloumi, Mounir, 2009. "Energy consumption and GDP in Tunisia: Cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2745-2753, July.
    40. Zhang, Yu & Zhang, Sufang, 2018. "The impacts of GDP, trade structure, exchange rate and FDI inflows on China's carbon emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 347-353.
    41. Özmen, Ayşe & Yılmaz, Yavuz & Weber, Gerhard-Wilhelm, 2018. "Natural gas consumption forecast with MARS and CMARS models for residential users," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 357-381.
    42. Du, Ruijin & Wang, Ya & Dong, Gaogao & Tian, Lixin & Liu, Yixiao & Wang, Minggang & Fang, Guochang, 2017. "A complex network perspective on interrelations and evolution features of international oil trade, 2002–2013," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 142-151.
    43. Tokito, Shohei & Kagawa, Shigemi & Nansai, Keisuke, 2016. "Understanding international trade network complexity of platinum: The case of Japan," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 415-421.
    44. Dedeoğlu, Dinçer & Kaya, Hüseyin, 2013. "Energy use, exports, imports and GDP: New evidence from the OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 469-476.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wei, Na & Xie, Wen-Jie & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Robustness of the international oil trade network under targeted attacks to economies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    2. Guan, Qing & An, Haizhong, 2017. "The exploration on the trade preferences of cooperation partners in four energy commodities’ international trade: Crude oil, coal, natural gas and photovoltaic," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 154-163.
    3. N. Wei & W. -J. Xie & W. -X. Zhou, 2021. "Robustness of the international oil trade network under targeted attacks to economies," Papers 2101.10679, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    4. Wang, Wenya & Fan, L.W. & Zhou, P., 2022. "Evolution of global fossil fuel trade dependencies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    5. Wen-Jie Xie & Na Wei & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2020. "Evolving efficiency and robustness of global oil trade networks," Papers 2004.05325, arXiv.org.
    6. Kitamura, Toshihiko & Managi, Shunsuke, 2017. "Driving force and resistance: Network feature in oil trade," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 361-375.
    7. Sun, Qingru & Gao, Xiangyun & Zhong, Weiqiong & Liu, Nairong, 2017. "The stability of the international oil trade network from short-term and long-term perspectives," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 482(C), pages 345-356.
    8. Xiaoyu Niu & Wei Chen & Nyuying Wang, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Topological Evolution of the Global Crude Oil Trade Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-18, February.
    9. Wang, Wenya & Li, Zhenfu & Cheng, Xin, 2019. "Evolution of the global coal trade network: A complex network analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 496-506.
    10. Huan Chen & Lixin Tian & Minggang Wang & Zaili Zhen, 2017. "Analysis of the Dynamic Evolutionary Behavior of American Heating Oil Spot and Futures Price Fluctuation Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-29, April.
    11. Yan, Jingjing & Guo, Yaoqi & Zhang, Hongwei, 2024. "The dynamic evolution mechanism of structural dependence characteristics in the global oil trade network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    12. Cappelli, Federica & Carnazza, Giovanni & Vellucci, Pierluigi, 2023. "Crude oil, international trade and political stability: Do network relations matter?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    13. Liu, Litao & Cao, Zhi & Liu, Xiaojie & Shi, Lei & Cheng, Shengkui & Liu, Gang, 2020. "Oil security revisited: An assessment based on complex network analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    14. Hou, Wenyu & Liu, Huifang & Wang, Hui & Wu, Fengyang, 2018. "Structure and patterns of the international rare earths trade: A complex network analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 133-142.
    15. Zhang, Hongwei & Wang, Ying & Yang, Cai & Guo, Yaoqi, 2021. "The impact of country risk on energy trade patterns based on complex network and panel regression analyses," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    16. Sutrisno, Aziiz & Nomaler, Ӧnder & Alkemade, Floor, 2021. "Has the global expansion of energy markets truly improved energy security?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PA).
    17. Zhong, Weiqiong & An, Haizhong & Shen, Lei & Fang, Wei & Gao, Xiangyun & Dong, Di, 2017. "The roles of countries in the international fossil fuel trade: An emergy and network analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 365-376.
    18. Wang, Minggang & Chen, Ying & Tian, Lixin & Jiang, Shumin & Tian, Zihao & Du, Ruijin, 2016. "Fluctuation behavior analysis of international crude oil and gasoline price based on complex network perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 109-127.
    19. Chen, B. & Li, J.S. & Wu, X.F. & Han, M.Y. & Zeng, L. & Li, Z. & Chen, G.Q., 2018. "Global energy flows embodied in international trade: A combination of environmentally extended input–output analysis and complex network analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 98-107.
    20. Zhu, Zhiyun & Dong, Zhiliang & Zhang, Yanxing & Suo, Guibin & Liu, Sen, 2020. "Strategic mineral resource competition: Strategies of the dominator and nondominator," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:84:y:2019:i:c:s0140988319302713. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.