IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v78y2019icp598-614.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimal sales-mix and generation plan in a two-stage electricity market

Author

Listed:
  • Falbo, Paolo
  • Ruiz, Carlos

Abstract

A bi-level stochastic programming problem is used to model the optimal decision of a risk averse electricity producer, interacting in a two-stage market with cost minimizer competitors. His decision variables include the distribution of production (which plant of different technologies and variable costs to operate) and the sales-mix (how much generation to commit to bilateral contracts and spot market). To enhance computation times, the bi-level problem is transformed into a Mixed-Integer Linear Problem (MILP) by applying sophisticated linearization techniques. Electricity demand, Renewable Energy Sources (RES) generation and production costs are different sources of uncertainty. A copula method is used to generate scenarios under different correlations values (between RES generation and demand), to analyze the impact of correlation on the optimal solution. The model is tested through extensive numerical simulations based on data from the Spanish electricity market. The results show that correlation and risk aversion have a relevant impact on how sales-mix and generation plan decisions should combine optimally.

Suggested Citation

  • Falbo, Paolo & Ruiz, Carlos, 2019. "Optimal sales-mix and generation plan in a two-stage electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 598-614.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:78:y:2019:i:c:p:598-614
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.11.020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988318304602
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.11.020?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boroumand, Raphaël Homayoun & Goutte, Stéphane & Porcher, Simon & Porcher, Thomas, 2015. "Hedging strategies in energy markets: The case of electricity retailers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 503-509.
    2. Dana G. Popescu & Sridhar Seshadri, 2013. "Demand Uncertainty and Excess Supply in Commodity Contracting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(9), pages 2135-2152, September.
    3. Chemla, Gilles & Touzi, Nizar & Aïd, René & Porchet, Arnaud, 2011. "Hedging and Vertical Integration in Electricity Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 8313, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. EHRENMANN, Andreas & SMEERS, Yves, 2011. "Generation capacity expansion in a risky environment: a stochastic equilibrium analysis," LIDAM Reprints CORE 2379, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    5. Anderson, Edward J. & Hu, Xinmin, 2008. "Forward contracts and market power in an electricity market," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 679-694, May.
    6. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Escarela-Perez, Rafael, 2010. "Time-dependent correlations in electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 269-277, March.
    7. Bell, William Paul & Wild, Phillip & Foster, John & Hewson, Michael, 2015. "Wind speed and electricity demand correlation analysis in the Australian National Electricity Market: Determining wind turbine generators’ ability to meet electricity demand without energy storage," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 182-191.
    8. René Aïd & Gilles Chemla & Arnaud Porchet & Nizar Touzi, 2011. "Hedging and Vertical Integration in Electricity Markets," Post-Print hal-02304220, HAL.
    9. Lingxiu Dong & Hong Liu, 2007. "Equilibrium Forward Contracts on Nonstorable Commodities in the Presence of Market Power," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(1), pages 128-145, February.
    10. Allaz, Blaise, 1992. "Oligopoly, uncertainty and strategic forward transactions," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 297-308, June.
    11. Antonio J. Conejo & Miguel Carrión & Juan M. Morales, 2010. "Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets," International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Springer, number 978-1-4419-7421-1, December.
    12. René Aïd & Gilles Chemla & Arnaud Porchet & Nizar Touzi, 2011. "Hedging and Vertical Integration in Electricity Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(8), pages 1438-1452, August.
    13. Chaiamarit, Kunjana & Nuchprayoon, Somboon, 2014. "Impact assessment of renewable generation on electricity demand characteristics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 995-1004.
    14. Garcia-Gonzalez, Javier & Parrilla, Ernesto & Mateo, Alicia, 2007. "Risk-averse profit-based optimal scheduling of a hydro-chain in the day-ahead electricity market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 181(3), pages 1354-1369, September.
    15. Haim Mendelson & Tunay I. Tunca, 2007. "Strategic Spot Trading in Supply Chains," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(5), pages 742-759, May.
    16. James Bushnell, 2007. "Oligopoly equilibria in electricity contract markets," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 225-245, December.
    17. Marí, L. & Nabona, N. & Pagès-Bernaus, A., 2017. "Medium-term power planning in electricity markets with pool and bilateral contracts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 260(2), pages 432-443.
    18. Inzunza, Andrés & Moreno, Rodrigo & Bernales, Alejandro & Rudnick, Hugh, 2016. "CVaR constrained planning of renewable generation with consideration of system inertial response, reserve services and demand participation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 104-117.
    19. Andreas Ehrenmann & Yves Smeers, 2011. "Generation Capacity Expansion in a Risky Environment: A Stochastic Equilibrium Analysis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(6), pages 1332-1346, December.
    20. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11029 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Oliveira, Fernando S. & Ruiz, Carlos & Conejo, Antonio J., 2013. "Contract design and supply chain coordination in the electricity industry," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 227(3), pages 527-537.
    22. Blaise Allaz, 1992. "Oligopoly, uncertainty and strategic forward transactions," Post-Print hal-00511812, HAL.
    23. Delarue, Erik & De Jonghe, Cedric & Belmans, Ronnie & D'haeseleer, William, 2011. "Applying portfolio theory to the electricity sector: Energy versus power," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 12-23, January.
    24. Cutler, Nicholas J. & Boerema, Nicholas D. & MacGill, Iain F. & Outhred, Hugh R., 2011. "High penetration wind generation impacts on spot prices in the Australian national electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5939-5949, October.
    25. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    26. Dillig, Marius & Jung, Manuel & Karl, Jürgen, 2016. "The impact of renewables on electricity prices in Germany – An estimation based on historic spot prices in the years 2011–2013," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 7-15.
    27. Rockafellar, R. Tyrrell & Uryasev, Stanislav, 2002. "Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1443-1471, July.
    28. Falbo, P. & Felletti, D. & Stefani, S., 2010. "Integrated risk management for an electricity producer," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(3), pages 1620-1627, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Parlane, Sarah & Ryan, Lisa, 2020. "Optimal contracts for renewable electricity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    2. Paolo Falbo & Carlos Ruiz, 2021. "Joint optimization of sales-mix and generation plan for a large electricity producer," Papers 2110.02016, arXiv.org.
    3. Yang, Yan-Shen & Xie, Bai-Chen & Tan, Xu, 2024. "Impact of green power trading mechanism on power generation and interregional transmission in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    4. Jiang, Lan & Meng, Ming, 2024. "Optimal production decision of hybrid power generation enterprises in multi-quota policy coupled markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. Abate, Arega Getaneh & Riccardi, Rossana & Ruiz, Carlos, 2022. "Contract design in electricity markets with high penetration of renewables: A two-stage approach," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    6. Falbo, Paolo & Ruiz, Carlos, 2023. "Joint optimization of sales-mix and generation plan for a large electricity producer," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    7. Arega Getaneh Abate & Rossana Riccardi & Carlos Ruiz, 2022. "Contract design in electricity markets with high penetration of renewables: A two-stage approach," Papers 2201.09927, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paolo Falbo & Carlos Ruiz, 2021. "Joint optimization of sales-mix and generation plan for a large electricity producer," Papers 2110.02016, arXiv.org.
    2. Falbo, Paolo & Ruiz, Carlos, 2023. "Joint optimization of sales-mix and generation plan for a large electricity producer," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    3. Abate, Arega Getaneh & Riccardi, Rossana & Ruiz, Carlos, 2022. "Contract design in electricity markets with high penetration of renewables: A two-stage approach," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    4. Arega Getaneh Abate & Rossana Riccardi & Carlos Ruiz, 2022. "Contract design in electricity markets with high penetration of renewables: A two-stage approach," Papers 2201.09927, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    5. Heikki Peura & Derek W. Bunn, 2021. "Renewable Power and Electricity Prices: The Impact of Forward Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(8), pages 4772-4788, August.
    6. Keppler, Jan Horst & Quemin, Simon & Saguan, Marcelo, 2022. "Why the sustainable provision of low-carbon electricity needs hybrid markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    7. Meunier, Guy, 2013. "Risk aversion and technology mix in an electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 866-874.
    8. Russo, Marianna & Bertsch, Valentin, 2020. "A looming revolution: Implications of self-generation for the risk exposure of retailers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    9. Guy Meunier, 2014. "Risk Aversion and Technology Portfolios," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 44(4), pages 347-365, June.
    10. Feng, Wenxiu, 2023. "Risk Management of Energy Communities with Hydrogen Production and Storage Technologies," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 36274, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    11. Russo, Marianna & Kraft, Emil & Bertsch, Valentin & Keles, Dogan, 2022. "Short-term risk management of electricity retailers under rising shares of decentralized solar generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    12. Oliveira, Fernando S. & Ruiz, Carlos & Conejo, Antonio J., 2013. "Contract design and supply chain coordination in the electricity industry," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 227(3), pages 527-537.
    13. N. Gülpınar & F. Oliveira, 2014. "Analysis of relationship between forward and spot markets in oligopolies under demand and cost uncertainties," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 267-283, July.
    14. Dorea Chin & Afzal Siddiqui, 2014. "Capacity expansion and forward contracting in a duopolistic power sector," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 57-86, January.
    15. Downward, Anthony & Young, David & Zakeri, Golbon, 2016. "Electricity retail contracting under risk-aversion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(3), pages 846-859.
    16. de Bragança, Gabriel Godofredo Fiuza & Daglish, Toby, 2017. "Investing in vertical integration: electricity retail market participation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 355-365.
    17. Gülpınar, N. & Oliveira, F.S., 2012. "Robust trading in spot and forward oligopolistic markets," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 35-45.
    18. Dana G. Popescu & Sridhar Seshadri, 2013. "Demand Uncertainty and Excess Supply in Commodity Contracting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(9), pages 2135-2152, September.
    19. David P. Brown & Andrew Eckert, 2018. "Analyzing the Impact of Electricity Market Structure Changes and Mergers: The Importance of Forward Commitments," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 52(1), pages 101-137, February.
    20. Boroumand, Raphaël-Homayoun & Goutte, Stéphane & Guesmi, Khaled & Porcher, Thomas, 2019. "Potential benefits of optimal intra-day electricity hedging for the environment: The perspective of electricity retailers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1120-1129.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:78:y:2019:i:c:p:598-614. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.