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The relationship between U.S. retail gasoline and crude oil prices during the Great Recession: “Rockets and feathers” or “balloons and rocks” behavior?

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  • Bremmer, Dale S.
  • Kesselring, Randall G.

Abstract

Previous studies of the relationship between crude oil and gasoline prices have often found “rockets and feathers” behavior: a scenario where gasoline prices increase more rapidly when crude oil prices rise than they fall when crude oil prices drop. While we find this behavior in times of generally rising crude oil prices, we find the opposite to be true during times of generally falling crude oil prices, a phenomenon we call “balloons and rocks” behavior. This result was obtained by testing for parameter stability in error-correction models which were estimated for periods of significant variability in both crude oil and gasoline prices. The data used to estimate these results is unique in the literature as it is comprised of daily U.S. retail gasoline prices and daily crude oil prices. The sample was taken during the Great Recession, an exceptional period of time that saw both sharp increases and decreases in gasoline and crude oil prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Bremmer, Dale S. & Kesselring, Randall G., 2016. "The relationship between U.S. retail gasoline and crude oil prices during the Great Recession: “Rockets and feathers” or “balloons and rocks” behavior?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 200-210.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:55:y:2016:i:c:p:200-210
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2015.12.014
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    3. Carson, Scott Alan, 2020. "United States oil and gas stock returns with multi-factor pricing models: 2008–2018," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
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    5. Mulder, M. & Willems, Bert, 2016. "Competition in Retail Electricity Markets : An Assessment of Ten Years Dutch Experience," Discussion Paper 2016-011, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center.
    6. Christoph Kleineberg, 2020. "Market definition of the german retail gasoline industry on highways and those in the immediate vicinity," Working Paper Series in Economics 389, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
    7. Guangyong Zhang & Lixin Tian & Wenbin Zhang & Xu Yan & Bingyue Wan & Zaili Zhen, 2020. "A Study on the Similarities and Differences of the Conventional Gasoline Spot Price Fluctuation Network between Different Harbors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-25, January.
    8. Le, Thai-Ha & Boubaker, Sabri & Bui, Manh Tien & Park, Donghyun, 2023. "On the volatility of WTI crude oil prices: A time-varying approach with stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    9. Institute of Economics, 2020. "Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre Forschungsbericht 2019," Working Paper Series in Economics 388, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
    10. Moutinho, Victor & Bento, João Paulo Cerdeira & Hajko, Vladimír, 2017. "Price relationships between crude oil and transport fuels in the European Union before and after the 2008 financial crisis," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 76-83.
    11. Kang, Wensheng & de Gracia, Fernando Perez & Ratti, Ronald A., 2019. "The asymmetric response of gasoline prices to oil price shocks and policy uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 66-79.
    12. James Ming Chen & Mobeen Ur Rehman, 2021. "A Pattern New in Every Moment: The Temporal Clustering of Markets for Crude Oil, Refined Fuels, and Other Commodities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-58, September.
    13. Zhang, Wenbei & Qiu, Feng, 2024. "Rockets and Feathers in the Oil and Gasoline Markets: In-Depth Analysis of Three Asymmetries," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 344062, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Sweidan, Osama D., 2020. "Do structural shocks in the crude oil market affect biofuel prices?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 183-193.
    15. Thomas Wein, 2021. "Why Abandon the Paradise? Stations’ Incentives to Reduce Gasoline Prices at First," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 465-504, December.
    16. Wang, Zanxin & Wei, Wei & Luo, Junwen & Calderon, Margaret, 2019. "The effects of petroleum product price regulation on macroeconomic stability in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 96-105.
    17. Marcel Wieting & Geza Sapi, 2021. "Algorithms in the Marketplace: An Empirical Analysis of Automated Pricing in E-Commerce," Working Papers 21-06, NET Institute.
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    19. Zirgulis Aras, 2016. "The Impact of Oil Refinery Market Power on Retail Fuel Prices in the European Union," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 95(3), pages 37-51, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gasoline prices; Oil prices; Asymmetric behavior;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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