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Modelling futures price volatility in energy markets: Is there a role for financial speculation?

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  • Manera, Matteo
  • Nicolini, Marcella
  • Vignati, Ilaria

Abstract

This paper models volatility in four energy futures markets, adopting GARCH models. The variance equation is enriched with alternative measures of speculation, based on CFTC data: the market share of non-commercial traders, the Working's T index, and the percentage of net long positions of non-commercials over total open interest in future markets. It also includes a control for market liquidity. We consider four energy commodities (light sweet crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas) over the period 2000–2014, analysed at weekly frequency. We find that speculation presents a negative and significant sign. The robustness exercise shows that: i) results remain unchanged through different model specifications (GARCH-in-mean, EGARCH, and TARCH); ii) results are robust to different specifications of the mean and variance equation.

Suggested Citation

  • Manera, Matteo & Nicolini, Marcella & Vignati, Ilaria, 2016. "Modelling futures price volatility in energy markets: Is there a role for financial speculation?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 220-229.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:53:y:2016:i:c:p:220-229
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.07.001
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodities futures markets; Speculation; Working's T; GARCH models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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