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Understanding Crude Oil Prices

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  • James D. Hamilton

Abstract

This paper examines the factors responsible for changes in crude oil prices. The paper reviews the statistical behavior of oil prices, relates this to the predictions of theory, and looks in detail at key features of petroleum demand and supply. Topics discussed include the role of commodity speculation, OPEC, and resource depletion. The paper concludes that although scarcity rent made a negligible contribution to the price of oil in 1997, it could now begin to play a role.

Suggested Citation

  • James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, , vol. 30(2), pages 179-206, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:30:y:2009:i:2:p:179-206
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol30-No2-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Menzie D. Chinn & Michael LeBlanc & Olivier Coibion, 2005. "The Predictive Content of Energy Futures: An Update on Petroleum, Natural Gas, Heating Oil and Gasoline," NBER Working Papers 11033, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Tatsu Kambara & Christopher Howe, 2007. "China and the Global Energy Crisis," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12522.
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