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The demand for transport fuels in Turkey

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  • Hasanov, Mübariz

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate the demand for transport fuels in Turkey. Specifically, using four different models, namely a partial adjustment model, a distributed lag model, an autoregressive distributed lag model, and an error correction model, we estimate gasoline and diesel demand functions with quarterly data covering the period 2003:Q1–2014:Q3. We find a stable long-run relationship only for diesel demand, income and price. Our results imply that gasoline demand does not respond to income and price in the long run, reflecting a shift from gasoline towards diesel induced by differential tax policies. Furthermore, we find that transport fuel demand is price inelastic, making tax on fuel a perfect tool for raising budget revenues. In addition, our results suggest that fuel demand responds to negative and positive price changes symmetrically.

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  • Hasanov, Mübariz, 2015. "The demand for transport fuels in Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 125-134.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:51:y:2015:i:c:p:125-134
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2015.05.023
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bakhat, Mohcine & Labandeira, Xavier & Labeaga, José M. & López-Otero, Xiral, 2017. "Elasticities of transport fuels at times of economic crisis: An empirical analysis for Spain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S1), pages 66-80.
    3. Yalta, A. Talha & Yalta, A. Yasemin, 2016. "The dynamics of fuel demand and illegal fuel activity in Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 144-158.
    4. Güngör, Bekir Oray & Ertuğrul, H. Murat & Soytaş, Uğur, 2021. "Impact of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    5. Aarti Mehta Sharma & Saina Baby & Varsha Raghu, 2024. "Forecasting High Speed Diesel Demand in India with Econometric and Machine Learning Methods," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(1), pages 496-506, January.
    6. Michal Krajňák, 2023. "Fuels Taxation in the Context of Tax Reforms in the Czech Republic," Journal of Tax Reform, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 9(1), pages 34-46.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gasoline demand; Diesel demand; Elasticity; Estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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