IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v49y2015icp328-335.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The stochastic effects on the Brazilian Electrical Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Ferreira, Pedro Guilherme Costa
  • Oliveira, Fernando Luiz Cyrino
  • Souza, Reinaldo Castro

Abstract

The size and characteristics of the Brazilian Electrical Sector (BES) are unique. The system includes a large-scale hydrothermal power system with many hydroelectric plants and multiple owners. Due to the historical harnessing of natural resources, the National Interconnected System (NIS) was developed outside of the economic scale of the BES. The central components of the NIS enable energy generated in any part of Brazil to be consumed in distant regions, considering certain technical configurations. This interconnection results in a large-scale complex system and is controlled by robust computational models, used to support the planning and operation of the NIS. This study presents a different vision of the SEB, demonstrating the intrinsic relationship between hydrological stochasticity and the activities executed by the system, which is an important sector of the infrastructure in Brazil. The simulation of energy scenarios is crucial to the optimal manner to operate the sector and to supporting decisions about whether expansion is necessary, thus, avoiding unnecessary costs and/or losses. These scenarios are an imposing factor in the determination of the spot cost of electrical energy, given that the simulated quantities of water in the reservoirs are one of the determinants for the short-term energy price.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferreira, Pedro Guilherme Costa & Oliveira, Fernando Luiz Cyrino & Souza, Reinaldo Castro, 2015. "The stochastic effects on the Brazilian Electrical Sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 328-335.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:49:y:2015:i:c:p:328-335
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2015.03.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014098831500095X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2015.03.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Santos, Gervasio F. & Haddad, Eduardo A. & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D., 2013. "Energy policy and regional inequalities in the Brazilian economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 241-255.
    2. L. A. Terry & M. V. F. Pereira & T. A. Araripe Neto & L. F. C. A. Silva & P. R. H. Sales, 1986. "Coordinating the Energy Generation of the Brazilian National Hydrothermal Electrical Generating System," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 16(1), pages 16-38, February.
    3. Fernandes, Elton & Fonseca, Marcus Vinicius de A. & Alonso, Paulo Sergio R., 2005. "Natural gas in Brazil's energy matrix: demand for 1995-2010 and usage factors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 365-386, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anderson Mitterhofer Iung & Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira & André Luís Marques Marcato, 2023. "A Review on Modeling Variable Renewable Energy: Complementarity and Spatial–Temporal Dependence," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-24, January.
    2. Andre Luis da Silva Leite & Nei Antonio Nunes, 2020. "Institutional Environment and the Strategies of the Firms of the Brazilian Electricity Industry," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 53-58.
    3. Marchetti, Isabella & Rego, Erik Eduardo, 2022. "The impact of hourly pricing for renewable generation projects in Brazil," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 601-617.
    4. Larissa Marchiori Pacheco & Marlon Fernandes Rodrigues Alves & Lara Bartocci Liboni, 2018. "Green absorptive capacity: A mediation‐moderation model of knowledge for innovation," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(8), pages 1502-1513, December.
    5. Trotter, Ian Michael & Féres, José Gustavo & Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland & de Hollanda, Lavínia Rocha, 2015. "Simulating Brazilian Electricity Demand Under Climate Change Scenarios," Working Papers in Applied Economics 208689, Universidade Federal de Vicosa, Departamento de Economia Rural.
    6. Duca, Victor E.L.A. & Fonseca, Thaís C.O. & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando L., 2021. "A generalized dynamical model for wind speed forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    7. André Luis da Silva Leite & Marcus Vinicius Andrade de Lima, 2023. "A GARCH Model to Understand the Volatility of the Electricity Spot Price in Brazil," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(5), pages 332-338, September.
    8. Fernando González-Aleu & Jesús Vázquez Hernandez & Ricardo Ramirez & Carlos M. Linares & Jorge A. Peinado & Jay Daniel, 2022. "Strategic planning for repurposing kitchen equipment production operations during COVID-19 pandemic," Operations Management Research, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 1241-1256, December.
    9. Araujo, Rafael, 2024. "The value of tropical forests to hydropower," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    10. Ávila, Leandro & Mine, Miriam R.M & Kaviski, Eloy & Detzel, Daniel H.M., 2021. "Evaluation of hydro-wind complementarity in the medium-term planning of electrical power systems by joint simulation of periodic streamflow and wind speed time series: A Brazilian case study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 685-699.
    11. Silva, Rodolfo Rodrigues Barrionuevo & Martins, André Christóvão Pio & Soler, Edilaine Martins & Baptista, Edméa Cássia & Balbo, Antonio Roberto & Nepomuceno, Leonardo, 2022. "Two-stage stochastic energy procurement model for a large consumer in hydrothermal systems," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    12. Munir Younes Soares & Dorel Soares Ramos & Margareth de Oliveira Pavan & Fabio A. Diuana, 2023. "Barriers to the Expansion of Sugarcane Bioelectricity in Brazilian Energy Transition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-18, January.
    13. Duca, Victor E.L.A. & Fonseca, Thaís C.O. & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz, 2023. "An overview of non-Gaussian state-space models for wind speed data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    14. Trotter, Ian M. & Bolkesjø, Torjus Folsland & Féres, José Gustavo & Hollanda, Lavinia, 2016. "Climate change and electricity demand in Brazil: A stochastic approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 596-604.
    15. Fernandes, Gláucia & Lima Gomes, Leonardo & Teixeira Brandão, Luiz Eduardo, 2019. "Mitigating Hydrological Risk with Energy Derivatives," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 528-535.
    16. Sgarbi, Felipe de Albuquerque & Uhlig, Alexandre & Simões, André Felipe & Goldemberg, José, 2019. "An assessment of the socioeconomic externalities of hydropower plants in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 868-879.
    17. Paula Medina Maçaira & Yasmin Monteiro Cyrillo & Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira & Reinaldo Castro Souza, 2019. "Including Wind Power Generation in Brazil’s Long-Term Optimization Model for Energy Planning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-20, March.
    18. Rego, Erik Eduardo & de Oliveira Ribeiro, Celma & do Valle Costa, Oswaldo Luiz & Ho, Linda Lee, 2017. "Thermoelectric dispatch: From utopian planning to reality," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 266-277.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daglish, Toby & de Braganca, Gabriel & Owen, Sally & Romano, Teresa, 2015. "Electricity Market Operation: Transitioning from a Free Market to a Single Buyer structure: An econometric analysis of the Brazilian case using a Two-State Markov Switching Model," Working Paper Series 19257, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    2. Drouin, Nicol & Gautier, Antoine & Lamond, Bernard F. & Lang, Pascal, 1996. "Piecewise affine approximations for the control of a one-reservoir hydroelectric system," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 53-69, February.
    3. Florent MCISAAC & Florent Mc ISAAC, 2017. "An Input-Output Analysis: What Would a Low-Carbon Economy for Brazil Mean?," Working Paper f2f77b78-bd3b-4408-b3e9-d, Agence française de développement.
    4. Andre Luiz Diniz & Maria Elvira P. Maceira & Cesar Luis V. Vasconcellos & Debora Dias J. Penna, 2020. "A combined SDDP/Benders decomposition approach with a risk-averse surface concept for reservoir operation in long term power generation planning," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 292(2), pages 649-681, September.
    5. Ben Abdallah, Khaled & Belloumi, Mounir & De Wolf, Daniel, 2015. "International comparisons of energy and environmental efficiency in the road transport sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 2087-2101.
    6. Liping Li & Pan Liu & David Rheinheimer & Chao Deng & Yanlai Zhou, 2014. "Identifying Explicit Formulation of Operating Rules for Multi-Reservoir Systems Using Genetic Programming," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(6), pages 1545-1565, April.
    7. Eduardo A. Haddad & Jesús P. Mena-Chalco, Otavio J. G. Sidone, 2015. "Scholarly Collaboration in Regional Science in Developing Countries: The Case of the Brazilian REAL Network," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2015_12, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    8. Huang, Xu & Maçaira, Paula Medina & Hassani, Hossein & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz & Dhesi, Gurjeet, 2019. "Hydrological natural inflow and climate variables: Time and frequency causality analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 516(C), pages 480-495.
    9. Gorini de Oliveira, Ricardo & de Moraes Marreco, Juliana, 2006. "Natural gas power generation in Brazil: New window of opportunity?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(15), pages 2361-2372, October.
    10. Balta-Ozkan, Nazmiye & Watson, Tom & Mocca, Elisabetta, 2015. "Spatially uneven development and low carbon transitions: Insights from urban and regional planning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 500-510.
    11. Daglish, Toby & de Bragança, Gabriel Godofredo Fiuza & Owen, Sally & Romano, Teresa, 2021. "Pricing effects of the electricity market reform in Brazil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    12. Ignacio Marín Cruz & Mohamed Badaoui & Ricardo Mota Palomino, 2023. "Medium-Term Hydrothermal Scheduling of the Infiernillo Reservoir Using Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP): A Case Study in Mexico," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-26, August.
    13. Daglish, Toby & de Braganca, Gabriel & Owen, Sally & Romano, Teresa, 2015. "Electricity Market Operation: Transitioning from a Free Market to a Single Buyer structure: An econometric analysis of the Brazilian case using a Two-State Markov Switching Model," Working Paper Series 4181, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    14. Diniz, Tiago & Ferreira-Filho, Joaquim Bento & Horridge, Mark, 2018. "Economic and regional impacts of investments in electricity generation in Brazil," Conference papers 332933, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    15. Parikh, Jyoti & Purohit, Pallav & Maitra, Pallavi, 2007. "Demand projections of petroleum products and natural gas in India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 1825-1837.
    16. Marreco, Juliana de Moraes & Carpio, Lucio Guido Tapia, 2006. "Flexibility valuation in the Brazilian power system: A real options approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3749-3756, December.
    17. repec:vuw:vuwscr:19257 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Proque, Andressa Lemes & dos Santos, Gervásio Ferreira & Betarelli Junior, Admir Antonio & Larson, William D., 2020. "Effects of land use and transportation policies on the spatial distribution of urban energy consumption in Brazil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    19. Dzikri Firmansyah Hakam & Ayodele O. Asekomeh, 2018. "Gas Monetisation Intricacies: Evidence from Indonesia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(2), pages 174-181.
    20. S. M. S. Carvalho & A. R. L. Oliveira & C. Lyra, 2018. "Predispatch of hydroelectric power systems with modifications in network topologies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 261(1), pages 135-153, February.
    21. Shapiro, Alexander & Tekaya, Wajdi & da Costa, Joari Paulo & Soares, Murilo Pereira, 2013. "Risk neutral and risk averse Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming method," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 224(2), pages 375-391.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brazilian Electrical Sector; Expansion planning; Operational planning; Spot price;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy
    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water
    • C59 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Other
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:49:y:2015:i:c:p:328-335. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.