IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v34y2012i4p1001-1011.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The price of policy risk — Empirical insights from choice experiments with European photovoltaic project developers

Author

Listed:
  • Lüthi, Sonja
  • Wüstenhagen, Rolf

Abstract

Managing the transition to a renewable energy future is an important policy priority in many countries. Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology is expected to make an essential contribution, but due to relatively high cost, its growth to date has been largely driven by public policy, notably feed-in tariffs. Feed-in tariffs have been implemented in various countries, but with widely differing outcomes in terms of installed PV capacity. Previous research indicates that the level of policy risk may be an important driver for differences in renewable energy policy effectiveness. This paper suggests that project developers who make a decision between PV investment opportunities in different countries carefully weigh feed-in tariff-induced returns against a set of policy risks, and choose the country with the most favorable risk-return profile. This model is empirically tested by a stated preference survey among European PV project developers, consisting of 1575 choice decisions by 63 investors. The findings demonstrate that risk matters in PV policy design, and that a “price tag” can be attached to specific policy risks, such as the duration of administrative processes or uncertainty induced by an approaching capacity cap. Governments can build on these empirical results to design policies that will be effective in attracting private PV investment, while at the same time maintaining efficiency by providing an adequate compensation for policy risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Lüthi, Sonja & Wüstenhagen, Rolf, 2012. "The price of policy risk — Empirical insights from choice experiments with European photovoltaic project developers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1001-1011.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:4:p:1001-1011
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2011.08.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988311001678
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2011.08.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Verbruggen, Aviel, 2004. "Tradable green certificates in Flanders (Belgium)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 165-176, January.
    2. Butler, Lucy & Neuhoff, Karsten, 2008. "Comparison of feed-in tariff, quota and auction mechanisms to support wind power development," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1854-1867.
    3. Hensher, David A., 2010. "Hypothetical bias, choice experiments and willingness to pay," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 735-752, July.
    4. Roe, Brian & Boyle, Kevin J. & Teisl, Mario F., 1996. "Using Conjoint Analysis to Derive Estimates of Compensating Variation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 145-159, September.
    5. Ropenus, Stephanie & Jensen, Stine Grenaa, 2009. "Support schemes and vertical integration--Who skims the cream?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1104-1115, March.
    6. Wustenhagen, Rolf & Wolsink, Maarten & Burer, Mary Jean, 2007. "Social acceptance of renewable energy innovation: An introduction to the concept," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 2683-2691, May.
    7. Menanteau, Philippe & Finon, Dominique & Lamy, Marie-Laure, 2003. "Prices versus quantities: choosing policies for promoting the development of renewable energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 799-812, June.
    8. Dinica, Valentina, 2006. "Support systems for the diffusion of renewable energy technologies--an investor perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 461-480, March.
    9. Richard L. Priem & David A. Harrison, 1994. "Exploring strategic judgment: Methods for testing the assumptions of prescriptive contingency theories," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 311-324, May.
    10. Peter E. Rossi & Greg M. Allenby, 2003. "Bayesian Statistics and Marketing," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(3), pages 304-328, July.
    11. Jacobsson, Staffan & Lauber, Volkmar, 2006. "The politics and policy of energy system transformation--explaining the German diffusion of renewable energy technology," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 256-276, February.
    12. Amundsen, E.S. & Mortensen, J.B., 2001. "The Danish Green Certificate System: Some Simple Analytical Results," Norway; Department of Economics, University of Bergen 226, Department of Economics, University of Bergen.
    13. Palmer, Karen & Burtraw, Dallas, 2005. "Cost-effectiveness of renewable electricity policies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 873-894, November.
    14. Nadai, Alain, 2007. ""Planning", "siting" and the local acceptance of wind power: Some lessons from the French case," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 2715-2726, May.
    15. Ringel, Marc, 2006. "Fostering the use of renewable energies in the European Union: the race between feed-in tariffs and green certificates," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-17.
    16. Banfi, Silvia & Farsi, Mehdi & Filippini, Massimo & Jakob, Martin, 2008. "Willingness to pay for energy-saving measures in residential buildings," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 503-516, March.
    17. Lipp, Judith, 2007. "Lessons for effective renewable electricity policy from Denmark, Germany and the United Kingdom," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5481-5495, November.
    18. Bergek, Anna & Jacobsson, Staffan, 2010. "Are tradable green certificates a cost-efficient policy driving technical change or a rent-generating machine? Lessons from Sweden 2003-2008," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1255-1271, March.
    19. Poortinga, Wouter & Steg, Linda & Vlek, Charles & Wiersma, Gerwin, 2003. "Household preferences for energy-saving measures: A conjoint analysis," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 49-64, February.
    20. Toke, David & Breukers, Sylvia & Wolsink, Maarten, 2008. "Wind power deployment outcomes: How can we account for the differences?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 1129-1147, May.
    21. Jensen, S. G. & Skytte, K., 2002. "Interactions between the power and green certificate markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 425-435, April.
    22. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521747387, October.
    23. Gross, Robert & Blyth, William & Heptonstall, Philip, 2010. "Risks, revenues and investment in electricity generation: Why policy needs to look beyond costs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 796-804, July.
    24. Moxnes, Erling, 2004. "Estimating customer utility of energy efficiency standards for refrigerators," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 707-724, December.
    25. Philippe Menanteau & Dominique Finon & Marie-Laure Lamy, 2003. "Prices versus quantities :environmental policies for promoting the development of renewable energy," Post-Print halshs-00480457, HAL.
    26. Masini, Andrea & Menichetti, Emanuela, 2012. "The impact of behavioural factors in the renewable energy investment decision making process: Conceptual framework and empirical findings," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 28-38.
    27. Daniel McFadden, 1986. "The Choice Theory Approach to Market Research," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 5(4), pages 275-297.
    28. Frondel, Manuel & Ritter, Nolan & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2008. "Germany's solar cell promotion: Dark clouds on the horizon," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4198-4204, November.
    29. Mitchell, C. & Bauknecht, D. & Connor, P.M., 2006. "Effectiveness through risk reduction: a comparison of the renewable obligation in England and Wales and the feed-in system in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 297-305, February.
    30. Farber, Stephen & Griner, Brian, 2000. "Valuing watershed quality improvements using conjoint analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 63-76, July.
    31. Boxall, Peter C. & Adamowicz, Wiktor L. & Swait, Joffre & Williams, Michael & Louviere, Jordan, 1996. "A comparison of stated preference methods for environmental valuation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 243-253, September.
    32. Amundsen, Eirik S. & Mortensen, Jorgen Birk, 2001. "The Danish Green Certificate System: some simple analytical results," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 489-509, September.
    33. Kelvin J. Lancaster, 1966. "A New Approach to Consumer Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(2), pages 132-132.
    34. Slemrod, Joel, 1992. "Do Taxes Matter? Lessons from the 1980's," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 250-256, May.
    35. Breukers, Sylvia & Wolsink, Maarten, 2007. "Wind power implementation in changing institutional landscapes: An international comparison," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 2737-2750, May.
    36. Verhaegen, Karolien & Meeus, Leonardo & Belmans, Ronnie, 2009. "Towards an international tradable green certificate system--The challenging example of Belgium," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 208-215, January.
    37. Oded Netzer & Olivier Toubia & Eric Bradlow & Ely Dahan & Theodoros Evgeniou & Fred Feinberg & Eleanor Feit & Sam Hui & Joseph Johnson & John Liechty & James Orlin & Vithala Rao, 2008. "Beyond conjoint analysis: Advances in preference measurement," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 337-354, December.
    38. Rowlands, Ian H., 2005. "Envisaging feed-in tariffs for solar photovoltaic electricity: European lessons for Canada," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 51-68, February.
    39. Clark-Murphy, Marilyn & Soutar, Geoffrey N., 2004. "What individual investors value: Some Australian evidence," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 539-555, August.
    40. Andrea Masini & E. Menichetti, 2012. "The impact of behavioural factors in the renewable energy investment decision making process: Conceptual framework and empirical findings," Post-Print hal-00651706, HAL.
    41. Ahn, Jiwoon & Jeong, Gicheol & Kim, Yeonbae, 2008. "A forecast of household ownership and use of alternative fuel vehicles: A multiple discrete-continuous choice approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2091-2104, September.
    42. Jacobsson, Staffan & Bergek, Anna & Finon, Dominique & Lauber, Volkmar & Mitchell, Catherine & Toke, David & Verbruggen, Aviel, 2009. "EU renewable energy support policy: Faith or facts?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2143-2146, June.
    43. Casey, James F. & Kahn, James R. & Rivas, Alexandre A.F., 2008. "Willingness to accept compensation for the environmental risks of oil transport on the Amazon: A choice modeling experiment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(4), pages 552-559, November.
    44. Train, Kenneth & Wilson, Wesley W., 2008. "Estimation on stated-preference experiments constructed from revealed-preference choices," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 191-203, March.
    45. Peter J. Lenk & Wayne S. DeSarbo & Paul E. Green & Martin R. Young, 1996. "Hierarchical Bayes Conjoint Analysis: Recovery of Partworth Heterogeneity from Reduced Experimental Designs," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages 173-191.
    46. Wustenhagen, Rolf & Bilharz, Michael, 2006. "Green energy market development in Germany: effective public policy and emerging customer demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(13), pages 1681-1696, September.
    47. Wüstenhagen, Rolf & Menichetti, Emanuela, 2012. "Strategic choices for renewable energy investment: Conceptual framework and opportunities for further research," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-10.
    48. Wiser, Ryan H. & Pickle, Steven J., 1998. "Financing investments in renewable energy : the impacts of policy design," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 361-386, December.
    49. Chattopadhyay, Sudip, 2009. "The random expenditure function approach to welfare in RUM: The case of hazardous waste clean-up," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 58-74, January.
    50. Glenn, H. & Wattage, P. & Mardle, S. & Rensburg, T. Van & Grehan, A. & Foley, N., 2010. "Marine protected areas--substantiating their worth," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 421-430, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wüstenhagen, Rolf & Menichetti, Emanuela, 2012. "Strategic choices for renewable energy investment: Conceptual framework and opportunities for further research," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-10.
    2. Botta, Enrico, 2019. "An experimental approach to climate finance: the impact of auction design and policy uncertainty on renewable energy equity costs in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Nicolini, Marcella & Tavoni, Massimo, 2017. "Are renewable energy subsidies effective? Evidence from Europe," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 412-423.
    4. Paul Lehmann & Felix Creutzig & Melf-Hinrich Ehlers & Nele Friedrichsen & Clemens Heuson & Lion Hirth & Robert Pietzcker, 2012. "Carbon Lock-Out: Advancing Renewable Energy Policy in Europe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-32, February.
    5. Grashof, Katherina, 2019. "Are auctions likely to deter community wind projects? And would this be problematic?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 20-32.
    6. Schallenberg-Rodriguez, Julieta, 2017. "Renewable electricity support systems: Are feed-in systems taking the lead?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1422-1439.
    7. Modhurima Dey Amin & Syed Badruddoza & Jill J. McCluskey, 2021. "Does conventional energy pricing induce innovation in renewable energy? New evidence from a nonlinear approach," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(2), pages 659-679, June.
    8. Polzin, Friedemann & Migendt, Michael & Täube, Florian A. & von Flotow, Paschen, 2015. "Public policy influence on renewable energy investments—A panel data study across OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 98-111.
    9. del Río, Pablo & Bleda, Mercedes, 2012. "Comparing the innovation effects of support schemes for renewable electricity technologies: A function of innovation approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 272-282.
    10. Polzin, Friedemann & Egli, Florian & Steffen, Bjarne & Schmidt, Tobias S., 2019. "How do policies mobilize private finance for renewable energy?—A systematic review with an investor perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 1249-1268.
    11. Polzin, Friedemann, 2017. "Mobilizing private finance for low-carbon innovation – A systematic review of barriers and solutions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 525-535.
    12. Lüthi, Sonja & Prässler, Thomas, 2011. "Analyzing policy support instruments and regulatory risk factors for wind energy deployment--A developers' perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4876-4892, September.
    13. Nagl, Stephan, 2013. "Prices vs. Quantities: Incentives for Renewable Power Generation - Numerical Analysis for the European Power Market," EWI Working Papers 2013-4, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    14. Wiser, Ryan & Barbose, Galen & Holt, Edward, 2011. "Supporting solar power in renewables portfolio standards: Experience from the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 3894-3905, July.
    15. Feurtey, Évariste & Ilinca, Adrian & Sakout, Anas & Saucier, Carol, 2016. "Institutional factors influencing strategic decision-making in energy policy; a case study of wind energy in France and Quebec (Canada)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1455-1470.
    16. Shen, Neng & Deng, Rumeng & Liao, Haolan & Shevchuk, Oleksandr, 2020. "Mapping renewable energy subsidy policy research published from 1997 to 2018: A scientometric review," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    17. Karneyeva, Yuliya & Wüstenhagen, Rolf, 2017. "Solar feed-in tariffs in a post-grid parity world: The role of risk, investor diversity and business models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 445-456.
    18. Miguel Pérez de Arce and Enzo Sauma, 2016. "Comparison of Incentive Policies for Renewable Energy in an Oligopolistic Market with Price-Responsive Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    19. Darmani, Anna, 2015. "Renewable energy investors in Sweden: A cross-subsector analysis of dynamic capabilities," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 46-57.
    20. Reinhard Madlener & Weiyu Gao & Ilja Neustadt & Peter Zweifel, 2008. "Promoting renewable electricity generation in imperfect markets: price vs. quantity policies," SOI - Working Papers 0809, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Adaptive conjoint analysis; Choice experiment; Feed-in tariff; Photovoltaic; Policy design;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation
    • L98 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Government Policy
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:34:y:2012:i:4:p:1001-1011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.