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The formation of forward freight agreement rates in dry bulk shipping: Spot rates, risk premia, and heterogeneous expectations

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  • Ioannis C. Moutzouris
  • Nikos K. Nomikos

Abstract

We examine the formation of forward rates in the dry bulk shipping industry. We illustrate that the bulk of basis volatility can be attributed to expectations about future physical market conditions rather than expectations about future risk premia. However, there exists significant predictability of risk premia by both price‐based signals and economic variables. To explain this finding, we develop a dynamic asset pricing framework where, apart from having different objective functions, agents might also differ in the way they form expectations about future market conditions. Accordingly, we argue that the average investor should hold “near‐rational” but slightly contrarian beliefs.

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  • Ioannis C. Moutzouris & Nikos K. Nomikos, 2019. "The formation of forward freight agreement rates in dry bulk shipping: Spot rates, risk premia, and heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(8), pages 1008-1031, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:39:y:2019:i:8:p:1008-1031
    DOI: 10.1002/fut.21980
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    Cited by:

    1. Yuting Gong & Xueqin Wang & Mo Zhu & Ying‐En Ge & Wenming Shi, 2023. "Maximum utility portfolio construction in the forward freight agreement markets: Evidence from a multivariate skewed t copula," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 69-89, January.
    2. Panos K. Pouliasis & Christos Bentsos, 2024. "Oil price uncertainty and the relation to tanker shipping," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 2472-2494, April.
    3. Lourdes Gómez‐Valle & Ioannis Kyriakou & Julia Martínez‐Rodríguez & Nikos K. Nomikos, 2021. "Estimating risk‐neutral freight rate dynamics: A nonparametric approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(11), pages 1824-1842, November.

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