IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sek/iefpro/3205752.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Asymmetric Volatility of Net Convenience Yield: Evidence from Indian Commodity Futures Markets

Author

Listed:
  • BRAJESH KUMAR

    (Jindal, Global Business School, O P Jindal Gobal University)

Abstract

(NCY). It asserts that the positive NCY should have higher volatility as compared to negative NCY. This paper investigates asymmetric volatility behavior of NCY in Indian commodity futures markets. We model NCY as EGARCH process which captures the asymmetry in volatility of the series. The mean equation of NCY is modeled as autoregressive process with month and period dummies. We also include volatility of the spot prices as explanatory variable. Our results of the asymmetric behavior of NCY indicate that the theory of storage is not valid in Indian commodities market. In most of the agricultural commodities, we do not find asymmetric behavior; the negative shock to NCY increases the volatility of NCY rather than decreasing it. This result contradicts the implications of the theory of storage. In other words, when the spot prices are higher than the futures prices (backwardation), the volatility of spread is higher than volatility of spread when spot prices are lower than the futures prices. Only in case of crude oil, positive NCY has higher volatility than negative NCY.

Suggested Citation

  • Brajesh Kumar, 2016. "Asymmetric Volatility of Net Convenience Yield: Evidence from Indian Commodity Futures Markets," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 3205752, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:sek:iefpro:3205752
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://iises.net/proceedings/5th-economics-finance-conference-miami/table-of-content/detail?cid=32&iid=012&rid=5752
    File Function: First version, 2016
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Apostolos Serletis & Asghar Shahmoradi, 2007. "Futures Trading and the Storage of North American Natural Gas," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 8, pages 82-87, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Da‐Hsiang Donald Lien, 1996. "The effect of the cointegration relationship on futures hedging: A note," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(7), pages 773-780, October.
    3. Antonios Antoniou & Nuray Ergul & Phil Holmes, 1997. "Market Efficiency, Thin Trading and Non‐linear Behaviour: Evidence from an Emerging Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 3(2), pages 175-190, July.
    4. French, Kenneth R, 1986. "Detecting Spot Price Forecasts in Futures Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 39-54, April.
    5. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2015. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums, and the Theory of Storage," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 4, pages 79-102, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Holbrook Working, 1948. "Theory of the Inverse Carrying Charge in Futures Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-28.
    7. Apostolos Serletis & Vaughn W. Hulleman, 2007. "Business Cycles and the Behavior of Energy Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 4, pages 38-45, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Nicholas Kaldor, 1939. "Speculation and Economic Stability," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27.
    9. Robert S. Pindyck, 2001. "The Dynamics of Commodity Spot and Futures Markets: A Primer," The Energy Journal, , vol. 22(3), pages 1-29, July.
    10. William G. Tomek, 1980. "Price Behavior on a Declining Terminal Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 62(3), pages 434-444.
    11. Chiou Wei, Song Zan & Zhu, Zhen, 2006. "Commodity convenience yield and risk premium determination: The case of the U.S. natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 523-534, July.
    12. Bryan R. Routledge & Duane J. Seppi & Chester S. Spatt, 2000. "Equilibrium Forward Curves for Commodities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1297-1338, June.
    13. Ng, Victor K & Pirrong, Stephen Craig, 1994. "Fundamentals and Volatility: Storage, Spreads, and the Dynamics of Metals Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 203-230, April.
    14. A. Mazaheri, 1999. "Convenience yield, mean reverting prices, and long memory in the petroleum market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 31-50.
    15. Gray, Roger W. & Peck, Anne E., 1981. "The Chicago Wheat Futures Market: Recent Problems in Historical Perspective," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, vol. 18(1), pages 1-28.
    16. Andre H. Gao & George H. K. Wang, 2005. "Asymmetric volatility of basis and the theory of storage," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 399-418, April.
    17. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:5:p:1075-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Robert Heinkel & Maureen E. Howe & John S. Hughes, 1990. "Commodity convenience yields as an option profit," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(5), pages 519-533, October.
    19. Sarahelen Thompson, 1986. "Returns to storage in coffee and cocoa futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 541-564, December.
    20. Dong W. Cho & Gerald S. McDougall, 1990. "The supply of storage in energy futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(6), pages 611-621, December.
    21. Colin A. Carter, 1989. "Arbitrage opportunities between thin and liquid futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 347-353, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Omura, Akihiro & Todorova, Neda & Li, Bin & Chung, Richard, 2015. "Convenience yield and inventory accessibility: Impact of regional market conditions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-11.
    2. Stronzik, Marcus & Rammerstorfer, Margarethe & Neumann, Anne, 2009. "Does the European natural gas market pass the competitive benchmark of the theory of storage? Indirect tests for three major trading points," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5432-5439, December.
    3. Marcus Stronzik & Margarethe Rammerstorfer & Anne Neumann, 2008. "Theory of Storage: An Empirical Assessment of the European Natural Gas Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 821, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Maryam Ahmadi & Niaz Bashiri Behmiri & Matteo Manera, 2020. "The theory of storage in the crude oil futures market, the role of financial conditions," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1160-1175, July.
    5. Stronzik, Marcus & Rammerstorfer, Margarethe & Neumann, Anne, 2008. "Wettbewerb im Markt für Erdgasspeicher," WIK Discussion Papers 305, WIK Wissenschaftliches Institut für Infrastruktur und Kommunikationsdienste GmbH.
    6. Niaz Bashiri Behmiri & Maryam Ahmadi & Juha-Pekka Junttila & Matteo Manera, 2021. "Financial Stress and Basis in Energy Markets," The Energy Journal, , vol. 42(5), pages 67-88, September.
    7. Symeonidis, Lazaros & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Brooks, Chris & Lazar, Emese, 2012. "Futures basis, inventory and commodity price volatility: An empirical analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2651-2663.
    8. Hélyette Geman & Vu-Nhat Nguyen, 2005. "Soybean Inventory and Forward Curve Dynamics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(7), pages 1076-1091, July.
    9. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Miffre, Joelle, 2021. "The risk premia of energy futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    10. Pieroni, Luca & Ricciarelli, Matteo, 2008. "Modelling dynamic storage function in commodity markets: Theory and evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1080-1092, September.
    11. Liu, Peng & Tang, Ke, 2011. "The stochastic behavior of commodity prices with heteroskedasticity in the convenience yield," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 211-224, March.
    12. Stepanek, Christian & Walter, Matthias & Rathgeber, Andreas, 2013. "Is the convenience yield a good indicator of a commodity's supply risk?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 395-405.
    13. Rammerstorfer, Margarethe & Eisl, Roland, 2011. "Carbon capture and storage—Investment strategies for the future?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7103-7111.
    14. Sung Je Byun, 2017. "Speculation in Commodity Futures Markets, Inventories and the Price of Crude Oil," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    15. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2023. "Theory of storage implications in the European natural gas market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    16. Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Squires, Matthew & Thorp, Susan & Yeung, Danny, 2017. "Determinants of the crude oil futures curve: Inventory, consumption and volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 53-67.
    17. Zulauf, Carl R. & Zhou, Haijiang & Roberts, Matthew C., 2005. "Updating the Estimation of the Supply of Storage Model," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19122, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    18. Björn Lutz, 2010. "Pricing of Derivatives on Mean-Reverting Assets," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-02909-7, July.
    19. Oleg Kucher & Alexander Kurov, 2014. "Business cycle, storage, and energy prices," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 217-226, November.
    20. Richter, Martin & Sørensen, Carsten, 2002. "Stochastic Volatility and Seasonality in Commodity Futures and Options: The Case of Soybeans," Working Papers 2002-4, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Convenience yield; Asymmetric volatility; EGARCH; The theory of storage; Indian Commodity Futures Markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sek:iefpro:3205752. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klara Cermakova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://iises.net/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.