IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v126y2023ics0140988323005121.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How do energy price shocks affect global economic stability? Reflection on geopolitical conflicts

Author

Listed:
  • Zhao, Jun
  • Wang, Bo
  • Dong, Kangyin
  • Shahbaz, Muhammad
  • Ni, Guohua

Abstract

The sharp rise of energy prices after the Russia-Ukraine conflict have restricted social activities and economic evolution in the area, and further brought the underlying macroeconomic effects of energy price fluctuations into public view. To examine whether and how the global energy price volatility affects the stable operation of the national economy, we perform econometric analysis on global 69 economies from 2003 to 2019. The regression outcomes insist that: (1) the price volatility of three kinds of energy has a substantial restraint impact on economic growth behaviors, among which the natural gas price has the most prominent effect; (2) the impacts of frequent energy prices shocks on economic stability significantly vary among different economic organizations, which are more pronounced for the sub-samples of non-B&RI, OECD, and RCEP countries; (3) the fluctuation of three energy prices is a vital factor affecting economic growth at any quantile level, and its impact on economic growth is most prominent in the high quantile range; and (4) industrial upgrading plays an intermediary role in the energy price-economic stability nexus; in other words, industrial upgrading is regarded as a plausible channel that links energy prices with economic stability. Hence, some policy implications on adjusting energy price mechanism and strengthen economic stability are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Jun & Wang, Bo & Dong, Kangyin & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ni, Guohua, 2023. "How do energy price shocks affect global economic stability? Reflection on geopolitical conflicts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:126:y:2023:i:c:s0140988323005121
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988323005121
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107014?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elias Soukiazis, Sara Proenca, and Pedro A. Cerqueira, 2019. "The Interconnections between Renewable Energy, Economic Development and Environmental Pollution: A Simultaneous Equation System Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    2. Zhang, Dayong, 2008. "Oil shock and economic growth in Japan: A nonlinear approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2374-2390, September.
    3. Melichar, Mark, 2016. "Energy price shocks and economic activity: Which energy price series should we be using?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 431-443.
    4. Lv, Yulan & Chen, Wei & Cheng, Jianquan, 2020. "Effects of urbanization on energy efficiency in China: New evidence from short run and long run efficiency models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    5. Dong, Jiajia & Dou, Yue & Jiang, Qingzhe & Zhao, Jun, 2022. "Can financial inclusion facilitate carbon neutrality in China? The role of energy efficiency," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    6. Yao, Yao & Ivanovski, Kris & Inekwe, John & Smyth, Russell, 2019. "Human capital and energy consumption: Evidence from OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    7. Khan, Zeeshan & Ali, Shahid & Dong, Kangyin & Li, Rita Yi Man, 2021. "How does fiscal decentralization affect CO2 emissions? The roles of institutions and human capital," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    8. Wang, Wei-Zheng & Liu, Lan-Cui & Liao, Hua & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2021. "Impacts of urbanization on carbon emissions: An empirical analysis from OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    9. Marilyne Huchet†Bourdon & Chantal Le Mouël & Mariana Vijil, 2018. "The relationship between trade openness and economic growth: Some new insights on the openness measurement issue," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 59-76, January.
    10. Padhan, Rakesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "The economics of COVID-19 pandemic: A survey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 220-237.
    11. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
    12. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Gozgor, Giray & Goodell, John W., 2023. "Impact of Russia-Ukraine war attention on cryptocurrency: Evidence from quantile dependence analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    13. Zhao, Jun & Jiang, Qingzhe & Dong, Xiucheng & Dong, Kangyin & Jiang, Hongdian, 2022. "How does industrial structure adjustment reduce CO2 emissions? Spatial and mediation effects analysis for China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    14. Bakirtas, Tahsin & Akpolat, Ahmet Gokce, 2018. "The relationship between energy consumption, urbanization, and economic growth in new emerging-market countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 110-121.
    15. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Destek, Mehmet Akif & Dong, Kangyin & Jiao, Zhilun, 2021. "Time-varying impact of financial development on carbon emissions in G-7 countries: Evidence from the long history," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    16. Bergmann, Philip, 2019. "Oil price shocks and GDP growth: Do energy shares amplify causal effects?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1010-1040.
    17. Cheng, Zhonghua & Li, Lianshui & Liu, Jun, 2018. "Industrial structure, technical progress and carbon intensity in China's provinces," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2935-2946.
    18. M. Hakan Berument & Nildag Basak Ceylan & Nukhet Dogan, 2010. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Growth of Selected MENA1 Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 149-176.
    19. Prince Boakye Frimpong & Akua Oforiwaa Antwi & Samuel Ebi Yamike Brew, 2018. "Effect of Energy Prices on Economic Growth in the ECOWAS Sub-Region: Investigating the Channels Using Panel Data," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 227-243, April.
    20. Dagoumas, Athanasios S. & Polemis, Michael L. & Soursou, Symeoni-Eleni, 2020. "Revisiting the impact of energy prices on economic growth: Lessons learned from the European Union," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 85-95.
    21. Osei, Michael J. & Kim, Jaebeom, 2020. "Foreign direct investment and economic growth: Is more financial development better?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 154-161.
    22. van de Ven, Dirk Jan & Fouquet, Roger, 2017. "Historical energy price shocks and their changing effects on the economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 204-216.
    23. Kong, Dongmin & Yang, Xiandong & Xu, Jian, 2020. "Energy price and cost induced innovation: Evidence from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    24. Cross, Jamie & Nguyen, Bao H., 2018. "Time varying macroeconomic effects of energy price shocks: A new measure for China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 146-160.
    25. Zhao, Jun & Jiang, Qingzhe & Dong, Xiucheng & Dong, Kangyin, 2021. "Assessing energy poverty and its effect on CO2 emissions: The case of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    26. Alexeev, Michael & Chih, Yao-Yu, 2021. "Energy price shocks and economic growth in the US: A state-level analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    27. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Jian-Min & Xiong, Xiong & Zhang, Wei, 2021. "The dynamic effects of international oil price shocks on economic fluctuation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    28. Sadorsky, Perry, 2013. "Do urbanization and industrialization affect energy intensity in developing countries?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 52-59.
    29. Maurice J. G. Bun & Abderrahman El Makhloufi, 2007. "Dynamic Externalities, Local Industrial Structure and Economic Development: Panel Data Evidence for Morocco," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 823-837.
    30. Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang & Kutan, Ali M., 2019. "Dynamic transmission mechanisms in global crude oil prices: Estimation and implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 1181-1193.
    31. Liu, Meng & He, Yueer & Zhang, Huifu & Su, Heng & Zhang, Ziwei, 2020. "The feasibility of solar thermal-air source heat pump water heaters in renewable energy shortage regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    32. JEBABLI, Ikram & KOUAISSAH, Noureddine & AROURI, Mohamed, 2022. "Volatility Spillovers between Stock and Energy Markets during Crises: A Comparative Assessment between the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the Covid-19 Pandemic Crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    33. Kim, In-Moo & Loungani, Prakash, 1992. "The role of energy in real business cycle models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 173-189, April.
    34. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Barkat, Karim, 2020. "Short- and long-run asymmetric effect of oil prices and oil and gas revenues on the real GDP and economic diversification in oil-dependent economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    35. Zahra Zamani & Seyed Komail Tayebi, 2022. "Spillover effects of trade and foreign direct investment on economic growth: an implication for sustainable development," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 3967-3981, March.
    36. Yan, Xing & Ozturk, Yusuf & Hu, Zechun & Song, Yonghua, 2018. "A review on price-driven residential demand response," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 411-419.
    37. Ozcan, Burcu & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2019. "Renewable energy consumption-economic growth nexus in emerging countries: A bootstrap panel causality test," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 30-37.
    38. Duan, Kun & Ren, Xiaohang & Shi, Yukun & Mishra, Tapas & Yan, Cheng, 2021. "The marginal impacts of energy prices on carbon price variations: Evidence from a quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    39. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    40. Doroodian, K. & Boyd, Roy, 2003. "The linkage between oil price shocks and economic growth with inflation in the presence of technological advances: a CGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 989-1006, August.
    41. Rebeca Jimenez-Rodriguez & Marcelo Sanchez, 2005. "Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 201-228.
    42. Wesseh, Presley K. & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "Exchange rate fluctuations, oil price shocks and economic growth in a small net-importing economy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 402-407.
    43. Zhao, Jingfeng & Tang, Jianmin, 2018. "Industrial structure change and economic growth: A China-Russia comparison," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 219-233.
    44. Overland, Indra & Juraev, Javlon & Vakulchuk, Roman, 2022. "Are renewable energy sources more evenly distributed than fossil fuels?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 379-386.
    45. Shi, Xunpeng & Sun, Sizhong, 2017. "Energy price, regulatory price distortion and economic growth: A case study of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 261-271.
    46. Heffron, Raphael & Körner, Marc-Fabian & Wagner, Jonathan & Weibelzahl, Martin & Fridgen, Gilbert, 2020. "Industrial demand-side flexibility: A key element of a just energy transition and industrial development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    47. Arshad, Ameena & Zakaria, Muhammad & Junyang, Xi, 2016. "Energy prices and economic growth in Pakistan: A macro-econometric analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 25-33.
    48. Dong, Kangyin & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Zhao, Jun, 2022. "How inclusive financial development eradicates energy poverty in China? The role of technological innovation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    49. Gozgor, Giray & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Demir, Ender & Padhan, Hemachandra, 2020. "The impact of economic globalization on renewable energy in the OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fan, Qingzhu & Gao, Wang, 2024. "Climate risk and financial stability: The mediating effect of green credit," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Zhao, Jun & Dong, Kangyin & Dong, Xiucheng, 2024. "How does energy poverty eradication affect global carbon neutrality?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    3. Alshammari, Saad & Andriosopoulos, Kostas & Kaabia, Olfa & Mohamed, Kamel Si & Urom, Christian, 2024. "The interplay among corporate bonds, geopolitical risks, equity market, and economic uncertainties," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).
    4. Yasmeen, Rizwana & Shah, Wasi Ul Hassan, 2024. "Energy uncertainty, geopolitical conflict, and militarization matters for Renewable and non-renewable energy development: Perspectives from G7 economies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
    5. Bouazizi, Tarek & Abid, Ilyes & Guesmi, Khaled & Makrychoriti, Panagiota, 2024. "Evolving energies: Analyzing stability amidst recent challenges in the natural gas market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).
    6. Lin, Xudong & Meng, Yiqun & Zhu, Hao, 2024. "Exploring hedging potentials of green bonds against oil price shocks: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile connectedness measures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dang, Tam Hoang-Nhat & Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Lee, Gabriel S. & Nguyen, Binh Quang & Le, Thuy Thu, 2023. "Measuring the energy-related uncertainty index," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    2. Ben Salem, Leila & Nouira, Ridha & Saafi, Sami & Rault, Christophe, 2024. "How do oil prices affect the GDP and its components? New evidence from a time-varying threshold model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    3. Baek, Jungho, 2023. "Dynamic linkage between oil shocks and economic growth: New evidence from Alaska," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    4. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    5. Nicholas Apergis & Alper Aslan & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "The Asymmetric Effect of Oil Price on Growth across US States," Working Papers 201459, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Roy, Arup, 2023. "Nexus between economic growth, external debt, oil price, and remittances in India: New insight from novel DARDL simulations," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    7. Hillard G. Huntington, 2017. "The Historical Roots of U.S. Energy Price Shocks," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    8. Zhao, Congyu & Dong, Kangyin & Jiang, Hong-Dian & Wang, Kun & Dong, Xiucheng, 2023. "How does energy poverty eradication realize the path to carbon unlocking? The case of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    9. Cheng, Dong & Shi, Xunpeng & Yu, Jian & Zhang, Dayong, 2019. "How does the Chinese economy react to uncertainty in international crude oil prices?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 147-164.
    10. Soma Patra, 2022. "Oil price shocks, firm entry and exit in a heterogeneous firm model," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(1), pages 349-378, February.
    11. Léleng Kebalo, 2020. "Effects of oil price shocks on economic sectors of net oil-importing countries: case of Togo," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(4), pages 2689-2703.
    12. Cheng Chen & Yajie Gao & Yidong Qin, 2023. "A Causal Relationship between the New-Type Urbanization and Energy Consumption in China: A Panel VAR Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-18, July.
    13. Léleng Kebalo, 2020. "Effects of oil price shocks on economic sectors of net oil-importing countries: case of Togo," Post-Print hal-03157689, HAL.
    14. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1504, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    15. Marwa Elsherif, 2024. "Modelling Inflation Dynamics and Global Oil Price Shocks in OAPEC Countries: TVP-VAR," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(3), pages 51-69, May.
    16. Zulfigarov, Farid & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2020. "The impact of oil price changes on selected macroeconomic indicators in Azerbaijan," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    17. Rafiq, Shudhasattwa & Sgro, Pasquale & Apergis, Nicholas, 2016. "Asymmetric oil shocks and external balances of major oil exporting and importing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 42-50.
    18. Liu, Donghui & Meng, Lingjie & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Oil price shocks and Chinese economy revisited: New evidence from SVAR model with sign restrictions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 20-32.
    19. Lin, Jie & Xiao, Hao & Chai, Jian, 2023. "Dynamic effects and driving intermediations of oil price shocks on major economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    20. Borozan, Djula & Lolic Cipcic, Marina, 2022. "Asymmetric and nonlinear oil price pass-through to economic growth in Croatia: Do oil-related policy shocks matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy shocks; Economic stability; Russo-Ukrainian war; Heterogeneous analysis; Mechanism analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:126:y:2023:i:c:s0140988323005121. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.